The peace talks between the Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Pakistani government appear to have collapsed today, and previous plans for a ceasefire announcement today are also dead, with no meetings planned going forward.
The process seemed to be moving forward comparatively smoothly, but is now in tatters after the leader of the TTP-Mohmand, one of the Taliban’s auxiliaries, announced yesterday he had executed 23 captured members of Pakistan’s Frontier Corps.
The 23 had been kidnapped quite some time ago and kept in TTP custody, and were executed nominally in revenge for the deaths of TTP fighters in military custody. The belief is that the TTP-Mohmand leader opposed the talks, and he is now openly accused of having “sabotaged” the process.
Pakistani PM Nawaz Sharif followed up the executions today with an announcement that the talks are cancelled, saying the brutal killings proved they are heading in the wrong direction.
Today’s talks had been expected to yield a ceasefire, with the TTP just trying to nail down some assurances that the Pakistani military would abide by it as well. Needless to say, neither side is ceasing fire now.
Sharif … cancelled, saying the brutal killings proved they are heading in the wrong direction. No, Sharif, it's not that simple. There is a minority accountable for it and that could be acknowledged as talks proceed. In contrast, the gov'ts executions are more easily interpreted as expressions of state policy; not the actions of hotheads/traitors. Sharif is not necessarily innocent, and he certainly doesn't have quite the moral high ground he'd like us to imagine.
Previously a US drone strike, in violation of it's own word and apparently timed with evil intent, had also ~'stalled' peace talks. And there has been similar behavior from the US elsewhere (most recently with Syria). So if a minor faction of TTP achieves the same end by doing something that would very predictably result in it, one reasonably suspects that faction of connections with those who want talks 'stalled.' I.e., someone other than the broader TTP group.
Sometime in the last several years there was some talk about how US assassinations had resulted in a younger Taliban. Read: more malleable, impulsive, more easily provoked, easily manipulated especially through outrage, etc. And, of course, likely to have excellent cases for revenge. The US could likely be shown to have influenced them by several routes, (there's also always an interest in infiltrating and/or turning people)… Might recall that the 'decapitation' route was something that used to be renounced between heads of state…probably why they prefer calling you a non-state-actor. And decapitation's a very low-life process…think of taking your dad away.