MIT’s Dr. Theodore Postol, an expert on missile success rates who was the driving force behind debunking US military claims about Patriot Missiles in the early 1990s has turned his attention on Israel’s extremely short-range Iron Dome missiles, drawing similar conclusions.
“If the interceptor is flying a crossing or diving trajectory compared to an incoming rocket, then you are not going to destroy the warhead,” noted Dr. Postol, saying that only 100% head-on collisions between Iron Dome and a rocket could reasonably be expected to destroy them.
Israel’s military is claiming an 84 percent success rate from the November Gaza War, a level Postol termed a “deception,” speculating that the claims may have been an attempt to convince the public a ground invasion of the strip wasn’t warranted after weeks of sabre-rattling.
Dr. Postol says that the real figure is likely in the single digits, somewhere around 5 percent and certainly no more than 10 percent. He says it is important that the US be aware of its limited utility since they are providing the bulk of the funding for a system that “hardly works.”
I live in Israel and I can honestly tell you from my own experience that we were hearing the sirens warning us about the rockets all day long and out of about 25 sirens we only heard of 1 or 2 actually not being intercepted and destroyed before hitting the ground.
There is a difference between theories and facts. The Dr.'s theories may make sense but in action his assessment isn't anywhere close to what actually happened here. It came to a point that I wouldn't even take the rockets seriously, I just went about regular activities and knew that it was all taken care off and I had nothing to fear. I believe God protects us and may have made this success more than physically possible, at least according to Dr. Postol.
We saw the amount of rockets coming down and being instantly blown up before they can do any harm. The Dr. is mistaken. Nothing here was inaccurately reported. I could confirm this as someone who barely watches the news but has experienced first hand what is being said about Iron Dome. I believe, though, that none of this is possible without God's help.
It's possible, I would imagine likely, that Dr. Postol's analysis is based on the incoming missiles being military-grade hardware, not the over-glorified bottle rockets built in the car repair shops of Gaza. The latter I am certain are far more vulnerable to interceptor rockets than global battlefield-grade ordnance would be.
The Iron Dome missiles self destruct in the air if the miss the target. Therefore every missile will appear to have hit something, as far as the ignorant public is concerned.
damnit doctor you forgot to add god to your equations!
lets recalculate… wow 100 percent success rate now
Why not re- test the iron dome again, just like they did before, kill a couple of children from Gaza and let the defenders let loose a barage of missiles then they can make adjustment.
Well there's a surprise. The rogue state's leaders couldn't lie straight in bed!
People … This is hardly a surprise !!! Simple physics tell you that "hitting a bullet with another bullet" is theoretical in nature . Yes it is possible … Yes it probably can be done . And no ; it can't be done with any sort of "regularity" .
I realize that my statement defies our common understanding of that particular technology ; but it is common sense …. and I haven't seen any sort of real evidence to the contrary .
Reminds me of a demonstration – merely analogous of a Ninja catching an arrow, a staple of Samurai flicks, but actually just a trick, busted by Mythbusters. It certainly has a propaganda value, if it makes people feel safe when they are actually in danger. It looks like somebody is doing something, when mere technical defenses could be inferior to diplomacy. I think 60 Minutes' Bob Simon did some fawning send-up of the Iron Dome over Tel Aviv not too long ago, with the reported excellent protection record. In some quarters in Israel, this nevertheless short of 100% positive report was called "nasty" by the Israeli ambassador – because the government wants people to believe they are totally protected.
Good news…in case Israhell wages some major war again and against any neighbours, I hope this Evil place is leveled out of Human History…..forewer. peter czech
first every intercept involves launching 2 interceptors at an incoming rocket, so the hit ratio should be 50% lower than what ever it is,
secondly these are homemade unguided weapons, that probably have a very high faliure rate and any rocket fired that causes no damage can be chalk up to success
The rogue state's leaders know full well that the so-called Iron Dome would be useless against a swarm of Iranian missiles. That's why they are deperate to get the US to conduct the war. That way it would be sea to land based. I think this would be grave misjudgement on their part as Iran has said it will treat Irael as equally complicit should the US start things off. Iron Dome almost failed to intercept a Hezbullah drone over their Dimona reactor. Just imagine what a flurry of missiles of missiles on Dimona might do.
Which is precisely why Israel and the US needs Syria and Hizballah missile arsenals degraded before an Iran war. Israel cannot economically and politically cope with being hit by missiles from all three countries.
The Iron Dome system will be easily overwhelmed by the sheer number of missiles being fired at Israel in an Iran war, mostly from Hizballah in Lebanon.
The whole point of the Syria crisis is to degrade Syria enough to allow Israel to attack Hizballah in Lebanon and capture much of its missile arsenal and push the launchers further north so they cannot hit all of Israel as far as Tel Aviv.