When the UN ceasefire is eventually declared a failure in Syria, there will be two official narratives on why. Western officials will insist, as they were already doing before it began, that the ceasefire was doomed because of the unique evil of Bashar Assad. The supporters of Assad will claim, by contrast, that the terrorist-style tactics of the rebels is to blame.
The reality though, is that the ceasefire had a legitimate shot at working, and in the early stages, violence really had dropped significantly on both sides, and there was at least a grudging willingness to approach negotiations.
No one thinks that anymore, and its not because of anything directly done by either side. Rather, it is the massive influx of weaponry that is convincing both sides that they have a genuine shot at winning the civil war outright and avoiding a negotiated settlement.
The rebels, who at one point were halting attacks simply because they had no ammunition, are now awash in weaponry, provided by GCC member nations (chiefly Saudi Arabia) and smuggled into the country by the US in an extremely loose definition of “non-lethal aid.”
One can virtually pinpoint the moment this aid started arriving, as rebel fighters got a lot more aggressive and rebel officials started openly mocking the negotiations.
At the same time, officials say that Iran has been rushing weapons to the Assad regime, determined to save one of their closest allies from a Western-backed rebel force. This armament, however, is also having a deleterious effect on the peace process, and seems to be convincing the regime that the rebels can be defeated without negotiation if they simply “hold out” long enough.
In the end, Western officials will blame Iran’s weapons for the failure, as an excuse to escalate the war of words with Iran, while Iran and Russia will surely blamed the Western arms. In reality, both sides are undermining the ceasefire and turning Syria’s Civil War into a proxy war between NATO/GCC armed rebels and Russia/Iran backed government forces.
3 thoughts on “Dueling Arms Shipments: Is Syria Becoming a Proxy War?”
Our proxy warriors are assuming in error that the proxy war they are starting will be confined to Syria, or perhaps expand only to Iran. They play with fire, not realizing it can so easily spread out of control.
It is likely to expand first to northern Lebanon, the part that is not Hezbollah, and to Jordan. It is also likely to put a new spin on fighting for a Kurdistan made up from territory in Turkey and Iraq as well as Syria and Iran. The push back is inviting among the Shiites living on top of Saudi oil, and Bahrain. Yemen and Somalia could go under, as an easy effort likely to divert us massively. The Golan could quickly become unmanageable. Egypt is likely to react by becoming more radical. Libya is tied to the rebels, and is likely to explode again as the enemies of the rebels support the enemies of the Libyan sponsors of the rebels, who are legion.
The effects on Iran are likely to be last and least of the consequences of this foolishness.
The last paragraph is full of BS.
Assad is the head of a country, and governments are supposed to receive arms to protect their country. You are a warmonger supporter if you equate the foreign terrorists who are supplied arms by foreign powers with the Syrian government receiving arms from another country. Your article exposes you for what you are: a presstitute.
Nathan, Assad is the head of a country, you mean to tell me
The head of the country which ever country it was have license
To kill his own people, the rebels are not foreign fighter they are
Army defectors who refused to kill their own people and lots of
Citizens who have lost a ken have joined the rebels, I want you
To put your self in their shoes, would you want a president to
Rule you for life, would you want to be his slave, that's how it's
In Syria a ruling party and a slave citizens, freedom is very
Precious and some times you have to scarifies your life in order
To gain it, if it's not for your self you could hope to get it for
Your kids, I know that conspiracy plays a big part in what's
Going on in Syria, all bashar had to do to not to play into their
Hands is to respect the peoples wish and resign and no one
Could have being killed but those few kids who started the
Whole thing, no matter what the out come turns out to be,
Bashar have lost and the conspirators have won.
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