A draft report on the prospect of the UN Security Council recognizing Palestinian statehood told us what everyone already knew today, that the 15 council members are not leaning unanimously either way on the question.
Of course we knew this because a number of nations have promised to vote in favor of Palestinian statehood and the United States has vowed to veto it at all costs. The question of whether it comes up to a vote, and if it is so overwhelmingly supported that the US is too embarrassed to veto it, remain to be seen.
Right now, the Palestinians seem to have 8 secure “yes” votes out of 15, and at least three other nations, Colombia, Portugal and France, are leaning toward abstention. At best this gives the US four “no” votes to work with, and this assumes Germany, Britain and Bosnia all end up opposing statehood instead of abstaining.
It was assumed that the Palestinians would not bring it up for a vote without a ninth “yes,” but the growing number of abstentions has raised the prospect that eight will be “enough.” The overwhelming support for the UNESCO membership seems to be strengthening international support for the bid, and even if it fails in the Security Council membership may be considered in the UN General Assembly, where no veto powers exist.