Despite media reports suggesting Russia has already removed almost half of its forces from Syria, and the White House confirming earlier in the day that Russia was moving forward with its commitment to withdraw, the Pentagon is denying anything is happening.
“We have not seen a significant reduction, frankly, in their combat power,” insisted Pentagon spokesman Col. Steve Warren, who said the military view’s Russia’s intentions in Syria as “unclear.”
Media outlets around the world have been documenting Russia’s packing up of air bases, and suggest a significant drawdown has already occurred in the two days since they announced they were going to do so.
Russian officials say they believe their military goals in Syria were already met, and that they are withdrawing to give a boost to ongoing peace talks. So far the peace talks appear to be slow-going, but that’s not wholly unexpected, as the last round of talks never even began.
Is this the future of the country? No single administration but every department + the White House working independently doing and saying whatever they want?
Russian planes flew out. They can just as well fly back. They are not there, so they have withdrawn. They can be back in just flying time, so they have not withdrawn very far measured by military potential. The same is true of equipment loaded onto a dozen big air cargo transports.
The heavy items, like bomb dumps, fuel dumps, hangars, traffic control, air defense, base defense, all remain. They are not offensive, but they enable offense at a moment’s notice.
Both statements are true. Withdrawn, but not far. It is not contradictory. It is explanatory.
Putin has insulated himself from accusations that he has continued the bombing by those aircraft. Those aircraft really have certainly stopped bombing. That is something, but it is not more.
Now he tests the US on its response. Will this be taken as an opportunity for peace on terms the Russians will accept, or as an opportunity to gain at the expense of the Russians?
Furthermore, it enables the aircraft to get heavy maintenance back at their home base, the sort of things needed after a couple of months of intensive flying. It is consistent with getting them ready for a return, just as much as it is really in fact their removal for now.
All of this is part of a subtle understanding of how all this plays out.