While Ukraine’s military offensive against the rebels in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts has seemingly just started at the frontier and tried to work its way east into Slovyansk, the rebels seem to have a much more direct strategy.
Instead of attacking the military wherever and whenever, the separatist rebels have been attacking border crossings into neighboring Russia, trying to seize them and secure supply lines to any potential aid they may get there.
Donetsk and Luhansk are largely ethnic Russian, and some of the separatists envisions joining the Russian Federation, while others have designs on independence or at least increased autonomy within Ukraine.
Whatever the case, their economies are closely tied to the Russian side of the border, and any aid they might get from factions supporting their movement will also come through that border. While they’ve taken multiple crossings already, the border guards remain at others, waiting for inevitable rebel attacks.
Donetsk is 38% Russian, Lugansk 39% Russian, with the Russians concentrated in the towns, but always in the minority. Thus, seizing border crossings will be of little use to them if they don't control the roads between the border and the enclaves they have seized. All the Ukrainians have to do is encircle the enclaves and wait until they run out of ammunition. With civilian population now being allowed out, the rebels will be even more isolated and even more vulnerable to direct military attack. The rebels are slowly but surely losing and as Mr Ditz points out, they are divided among themsleves as to what they want. A few minor concessions from the new President will divide them still further.
You have been predicting the Rebels demise since you started commenting on UKRAINE.
Perhaps you should open your eyes and take note of whats really happening on the ground. With all the support and military aid being give to the facist illegitimate Government in Kiev – THEY STILL CANNOT RETAKE THE AREAS HELD BY THE REBELS, at least for any length of time.
Use of aircraft against civilians and hospitals are not the acts of legitimate governments. In the end the WORLD will realise that the US and EU are backing the wrong people and then the shit will hit the fan.
The problem is not how to kill them,and encircle the enclaves. The problem is that they are not heard and don't exist for Kiev and Europ.We have invented a new european style of democracy : bombing houses of citizen,hospitals etc,… I do not want to have blood on my hands because all western press do not speak about them.More over we may dislike "separatists" but it is not normal that only Russia was asking during weeks for a humanitarian corridor.Europ and USA did nothing about that, and we dare to speak about humanity,democracy etc. What is going on with us ?
Ukraine is an artificial state with different mentalities.It is related to history (not only soviet one).Polish domination forced a part of Ukraine to be catholic with orthodox ritual.Iti is galitsia . Their people are more agressive.
When my father was 14 he was deported from Kiev by Nazis.He told me that these guys were beating him arder than Germans.
The other point is : when Maydan guys were occuping all ukrainian ministeries by force, why they were not called rebels and/or separatists ?
The last point is that the new president has not much authority according the ukrainian constitution of 2004.The official ukrainian troops are not all regular.There are also troops of Pravy sector which are not under real control.It is why the separatists can not find a real compromise with Avakov : Kiev says that they stop bombing civilian but in fact it does not happen.