While recent generations have shown them reluctant to expand far beyond their borders, in the past few months Turkey has shown interest in overseas military engagements. Forces have been active in northern Syria with an eye toward regime change, and Turkey has also committed to military involvement in Libya.
That’s given Turkey two potential enemies to worry about, and given them each a potential new ally. The Syrian government and Libya’s self-proclaimed Libyan National Army (LNA) or Gen. Khalifa Hafter have agreed to cooperation, and a memorandum of understanding to confront Turkish aggression.
The LNA’s adjoining government, the eastern-based Tobruk Parliament, has confirmed it will be opening an embassy in Damascus. This will be the first Libyan embassy in Syria since the 2012 NATO-imposed regime change in Libya.
Since the LNA is heavily backed by much of the Arab world, their newfound alignment with Syria might open up the possibility of a Syrian rapprochement with those countries, most of whom had endorsed regime change in Syria as well. With the Syrian rebels all but wiped out, they may find it’s easier to return to Damascus ties by way of common interests in Libya, and a common enemy in Turkey.
From almost being overthrown by CIA assets too aligning with former CIA assets. War is an incestuous business.
Very good observation — opening Embassy in Damascus is creating one more venue for Arab states to engage with Syria. The first one was opening of UAE and Bahrain Embassies in Damascus. American/NATO quandary over both Libya and Syria is becoming acute. In Libya, US was sure of swaying General Haftar — Trump was full of praise and offered sky. At that time, UN — that is US-appointed — internationally recognized government was all but abandoned. Its creators , UN and US could not care less. Russia and Egypt that supported Haftar — had to wait on the sideline as the charm offensive by Trump oozed on. Enter Turkey, NATO member, supporting UN recognized government. Haftar now has LEGITIMATE reason for spurning US offers. Why would it trust US, when NATO ally supports Tripoli government?
Haftar pulls out of US negotiations. Predictably, US media turned the tune to their predictably vicious norm. Hints are made that he is a US citizen and his family lives in US — hence he better watch out.
Turkey-Tripoli deal has also put a dent into Israeli “East Mediterranean” gas pipeline, and caused US to be extra nice to Greece, whose presence in the dispute is needed as an Israeli fig leaf.
Idlib has also turned out to be a serious problem for US then commonly understood. The heart of the problem is Western outfit HTS, funded via fake humanitarians, White Helmets. US and UK took control of various militant groups sent into Idlib. Those groups and their families depend on HTS financing, arms. But this dependency has prevented them from taking advantage of Turkish checkpoints to turn command over to Turkey. Just the opposite, checkpoints were used to attack Syrian positions.
Erdogan has a huge internal political problem by pro-NATO politicians —Davutoglu, for example. They insist that Erdogan was weak on Syria and will now result in three million refugees flooding Turkey. This is hot issue in Turkey, already flooded by refugees. Erdogan’s party already lost two major city local governments — Istanbul and Ankara. This was mostly due to low turnout, as his party was considered favorite. But the consequences are real — appointments made to all levels of governance, public education, utilities, public enterprises are now anti-Erdogan.
The Western propaganda about 900,000 refugees already on the march is meant to put more pressure on Erdogan. This is a lie — total population is 3 million, and fighting is limited to former so called demilitarized zones. There was not much civilian population there.
This is why Erdogan publicly baited Trump to do something, then very publicly pushed NATO (asking for Article 4 consultation) into intervention. That was highly unlikely in either case. That plays well against his pro-Europe opponents, as it proves Erdogan right. From coup to refugees — Turkey had not been helped by the West.
Now next stage — release of refugees. And the MASSIVE response by EU and Greece. Refugees are DEFINITELY not welcome this time.
The central issue here is — militants in Idlib must decide on loyalty. Is it going to be Turkey or West. West is not offering anything — no intervention on their behalf. HTS and Helmets are losing value as protectors of militant groups.
As Syria is advancing, with Russia’s help, these militants have only Turkey that stands between
them and disaster. And Turkey has sealed borders. Are they ready to finally accept Turkish command and stop being cannon fodder for HTS? We will soon find out — the consultations in Moscow will indicate the way forward.
If militants had agreed to accept Turkey’s command, a truce will be established. If not, more Syrian actions against militants will follow, with Turkey defending them, but I suspect that Turkey will let them suffer heavy casualties, using this as an excuse to bring some real numbers of military. The net result to militants will be — loss of local government support. Turkey will just take locals over. There are about 60,000 militants, and 3,000,000 population. The math is clear even to denser militants — if they force Turkey to do that, their negotiating power is gone. The bottom of all bottom lines is the fate of HTS, and their NATO minders, White Helmets.
Since they have been quiet lately — I suspect it is because they do not have extortion power over militant groups. If we hear from them — it will mean that some groups decided to stay loyal, and games continue.
If a truce is reached — then Turkey will take over local governments and command of militant groups. The representation to peace conference could then be based on local government, not dictated by Western outfit, HTS.
Erdogan must look like a winner domestically, and that hinges on refugees, as well as very obvious lack of support from US and NATO. As Libya is on Western mind — Turkey is in their crosshairs.
Stay tuned.
Interesting, thank you. I thought the groups in Idlib were more united and all on board with Turkey. Apparently there are different sides with different agendas.
This is what really is mind boggling. Everyone knew that Al-Qaeda, or HTS along with their Western funding arm, White Helmets, left Aleppo for Idlib. So did assorted small or larger Islamic groups. HTS went immediately on the attack. First were attacked groups that went under Turkish command, like Free Syrian Army. This was the last time any group from Idlib tried to leave the area — the checkpoints were there to make it easy, but HTS grip was tight. US even helped HTS by bombing Free Syrian Army camp.
So why are US and UK so devoted to Idlib? Because the area of 3 milion people under control of militants can be a real asset in any peace settlement. They can make demands — all sorts of demands, and wreck peace process. The extortion in progress is threat of refugee exodus to Turkey. The hottest issue in Turkey.
All information is public and in media time and again. Yet, most people accept the rubbish — that the militant groups are under Turkey’s command.
Turkey would like that — in fact, this is what may end up happening. But that would mean the end of HTS influence, and end of Western control over Idlib. Would US and UK accept Turkey as a substitute? Do they trust Turkey enough to let them control Idlib? If that is the case — why stirring up internal turmoil in Turkey?
And what is Turkey trying to accomplish by being big and bad?
Nothing is clear yet. I know for a fact that the fate of HTS is at the heart if it — much of everything else is unknown.
I know a Turkish couple well. Two academics, a very decent couple. In Turkey they are leftists, but that’s very different from in Western Europe, where they are appalled by the Left-created mass immigration of Arabs, Afghans, Kurds and Africans, and the other leftist causes. They hate Erdogan – as they should after his enormous purges of the military, schools and government departments.
They want the Kurd terrorists out of Turkey, and don’t want them to control conquered land in Syria either, so they approve of the joint Turkish-Russian patrols in eastern Syria, until the Syrian government can take over. It should have stopped there. They do not want Erdogan’s war in Idlib, supporting al-Qaeda. Supporting tens of thousands of Islamist Turkmen who will be enemies of most Turks when Erdogan eventually brings them in as refugees. I think if Erdogan disappeared tomorrow, his party would not keep the war going.