In January, the Iraqi parliament voted 170-0 for the government to seek a full pullout of all foreign troops. President Trump reacted with threats, and while Iraq’s former PM had backed away, the matter of US presence is still an issue. But weeks later, things may be changing.
Over the past week, the Pentagon has talked with senior Iraqi officials, telling them they are prepared to discuss withdrawal in some form. The US has even offered a plan for a partial pullback of troops from some parts of Iraq.
The position right now is that the US is willing to leave certain Shi’ite majority areas, and cut down the number of troops in Baghdad. The US had ruled out leaving Ayn al-Assad air base, calling that a “red line.”
That is a major shift, as previously the US position was that they would not consider any specific cuts, and rather would engage in wholesale renegotiation of all US-Iraqi ties going forward.
I predict it will be just another “American Pullout.” I can’t remember who on this site started the joke, but it was funny: “How did the woman get pregnant? Her man did an ‘American Pullout’.”
Trump knows better than most that there’s a “substantial penalty for early withdrawal.” His lawyers are working night and day on that one.
I can’t formally upvote that…
…. but the U.S. war complex does kind of Harvey Weinstein the world.
It is sooo transparent. Let us recreate Islamic Caliphate, AGAIN using Sunni areas. This time we will be there to protect them from bad Shia. How many times will Sunnis in Iraq step on that same rake? As much as US misses ISIS, it cannot be recreated.
It is NOT Trump’s fault. Being a pragmatic politician he saw ISIS project crumble, US stuck between “killing some leaders” and doing nothing, while Iraqis, Syrians, Russians, Iranian and Turks all clearing up the mighty Caliphate from all sides.
Trump just declared that HE was going to finish ISIS. When it was obviously finished. And we let Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Nayef twist in the wind, as he was our partner in crime. Saudis ditched him as soon as it became obvious that US has no intention of building Sunniland.
The Muslim world needs a real caliphate. If there can be an EU, NATO, a pope in Rome, then why not a real caliphate. The only reason to not have a caliphate is to keep exploiting the divisions in the Muslim world.
“An EU, NATO, a pope in Rome” all tolerate religious equality,
a “real caliphate” never will.
Ha, ha….you know squat. Bye!
Ignoring truth, doesn’t change it.
Bianca, your first paragraph is spot on. The rest seems confused.
Sunni have a chance to live in a unified Iraq governed under secular principles of individual rights for all individuals and not dominated by any foreign power, which I believe is the vision of brother Muqtada. The alternative is to step on that rake once again and live in a Sunnistan dominated by the US with its resources stolen for the benefit of Western elites.
Re Solly, a caliphate is by definition an authoritarian theocracy. It would place one person’s religion (and language and culture) at the pinnacle of power, in position to discriminate against all others. In a diverse society like Iraq, with not just Sunni and Shia but with Assyrian and other Christians, multi-religious, multi-lingual Kurds and Yezidi, it’s a recipe for disaster. Compound the problem if a caliphate is extended throughout the Muslim world. A Muslim alliance like NATO? Great idea. A caliphate? Not so much.
We got them to attack Iran once before. That worked out real well for them, didn’t it?
I don’t think a withdrawal is probable and that is due to the Coronavirus.
If the Butterfly Effect can be used in geopolitics, then I will expound with my cynical take.
While some can question the US role in the virus’ spread, it has left open the possibility that its effect on oil exports to China leave it vulnerable to a US invasion and to worsening domestic economic conditions. Not necessarily in that order but in a complementary way.
Should the all-items-China quarantine be prolonged much beyond China’s crude oil storage capacity, Iran and Europe may look toward each other and beyond JCPOA differences to strike a trade accord and end their US- accommodating stance toward sanctions against Tehran.
Europe might be familiar with the American cliche, “Desperate times require desperate measures.”
Perhaps in Europe, they add their respective expletives.
The Iraq negotiation tactic reminds me of the Afghanistan ploy: delay, obfuscate.
That’s assuming China is really hurting bad enough to be vulnerable to a real attack. If COVID-19 is a U.S. weapon, its more like a warning shot.
COVID-19 is still just like the other Alphabet viruses; a really, really bad cold that hits harder than the flu. Death on old folks, not young military aged men and women.
At the very least, the rest of the world will soon feel the pain of being cut off from China’s economy.
What exactly is the US protecting, as the part of the occupation it insists on keeping?
It seems to want to remain in Sunni zones. That could also mean Kurdish zones. That could be either to chase al Qaeda, or to protect, support, and use the head chopping crazies the US used and supported in Syria. It could be to protect Kurds, or to control them to pacify Turkey.
It could also be to maintain “lily pad” launch sites for military attacks on Iran. That would force Iraq into an attack on Iran.
It could be the same for endless war on Syria, Russia, and Iran in Syria. Regime change, against secular and in favor of head chopping crazies who are our head choppers.
It is not clear what the US is trying to do. It is also not clear then just how this is a bad thing, but every option is a bad thing.
I think at this point, the objective is just not get the official military kicked out.
There’s possibly a fair amount of clandestine activity that needs minding as well, which requires protection of the formal military.
“..Ayn al-Assad air base, calling that a “red line.” Is this not the base hit and badly damaged by Iranian extremely accurate bombing ??
Not to mention 100+ brain injury casualties.
I’m thinking the Iranians hit with some kind of thermobaric warhead, to inflict concussive force casualties against simple bunkers.
Sure, so they drive across the border to Syria for a while, then a month passes, “trump to withdraw troops from Syria”, and they cross back.
The ‘grand strategy’ seems to be to slice the Shiite crescent in 2 along the Al Tanf, Ayn Al-Asad, and Erbil. Al Tanf blocks the Baghdad Damascus highway and Ayn Al Asad blocks the Baghdad Aleppo highway. Kurdish areas block the rest.
The US respects Iraq`s Sovereignty…bla bla bla, hallow words.
The reality: after invading on a lie, destroying the country, killing a million, the US will not leave.
After Trumps threats of harsh sanctions and the withholding of 35 billion of Iraqi money in US banks….and probably other threats the public has no knowledge of.
The Iraqi once again caved in to the US and NATO’s pressure for staying in Iraq…..the country is used as a way station for Syria and the final prize, Iran.
Today another American military convoy made up of more than 50 trucks left Iraqi territory towards Syria.
Pentagon Offers Iraq a Partial Military Pullout….Oooh how generous. The occupier has deigned to negotiate with its vassal. They should be so grateful.