The three European parties to the Iran nuclear deal, Britain, France, and Germany, took a risky decision to implement the dispute resolution of the deal. It was subsequently revealed that they did so specifically because the US threatened to impose auto tariffs on them if they didn’t.
President Trump is now threatening those same auto tariffs on the EU if they don’t accept a litany of new demands, including signing a trade deal. That clearly weakens making the threat about the Iran deal.
The EU3 may well have buyer’s remorse now. Russia was critical of the dispute resolution move, which they said was undermining an attempt to negotiate a proper settlement. Iran had also warned the nations this was a negative move.
It is not clear, however, whether the European group can take back what it has done. Trump would no doubt be furious and threaten to punish them, but anything he thinks he can do to the EU will be on the table for the next perceived slight at any rate, and that makes it a poor motivator.
Iran has been trying to start negotiations on sanctions relief, and made deliberate, but easily reversible violations of the deal to bring everyone into the talks. The US is not a party to the deal at this point, and Trump has made clear the US wants the nuclear deal to end entirely. It is with that goal in mind that they are coercing Europe to act.
For every inch conceded, the Empire has extracted a mile. Javad Zarif’s plainly worded warning has them looking like a bunch of Neville Chamberlains and they hate it. His not so subtle “I told you so” only makes it that much more obvious. Churchill’s words are echoing in their skulls:
Austria-Hungary’s ultimatum to Serbia in 1914: “As the German ambassador to Vienna reported to his government on July 14, the [note] to Serbia is being composed so that the possibility of its being accepted is practically excluded.”
As Churchill wrote at the time: “it seemed absolutely impossible that any State in the world could accept it, or that any acceptance, however abject, would satisfy the aggressor.”
All nations are adversaries to the US to be threatened. As Trump shoots friend and foe alike in the back for the mistake of taking him at his word, Europe will sooner or later have to realize that unity against US aggression is the only path towards any kind of safety and economic security.
The new script calls for Eww to act as a middleman, between U.S. and Iran to get a new deal on the table. For Iran’s sake, they better hope U.S. doesn’t Darth Vader this new deal.
Do not give in to blackmail.
Once the dispute resolution process is triggered, it has to go to completion: two fifteen-day negotiation period, then a five-day period before it goes to the UNSC.
Described by Reuters thus –
Quote:
STEP ONE – If any party to the nuclear deal believes another party is
not upholding their commitments they can refer the issue to a Joint
Commission, whose members are Iran, Russia, China, Germany, France,
Britain and the European Union. (The United States was a member before
it withdrew from the deal.)
The Joint Commission would then have 15 days to resolve the issue, unless it agrees by consensus to extend the time period.
STEP
TWO – If any party believes the matter has not been resolved after that
first step, they can refer it to the foreign ministers of the parties
to the deal. The ministers would have 15 days to resolve the issue,
unless they agree by consensus to extend the time period.
In parallel with – or in lieu of – consideration by foreign ministers, the
complaining party or the party accused of non-compliance could also ask
for the issue be looked at by a three-member advisory board. The
participants to the dispute would each appoint a member and the third
member would be independent.
The advisory board must provide a non-binding opinion within 15 days.
STEP
THREE – If the issue is not resolved during the initial 30-day process,
the Joint Commission has five days to consider any advisory board
opinion in a bid to settle the dispute.
STEP FOUR – If the complaining party is not satisfied after this and considers the matter to “constitute significant non-performance,” they could “treat the unresolved issue as grounds to cease performing its commitments under this JCPOA in whole or in part.”
They could also notify the 15-member U.N. Security Council that the issue constitutes “significant non-performance.” In the notification the party must describe the good-faith efforts made to exhaust the Joint Commission dispute resolution process.
UNITED NATIONS SECURITY COUNCIL
STEP FIVE – Once the complaining party notifies the Security Council, the
body must vote within 30 days on a resolution to continue Iran’s
sanctions relief. A resolution needs nine votes in favor and no vetoes
by the United States, Russia, China, Britain or France to pass.
STEP SIX – If such a resolution has not been adopted within 30 days, the
sanctions in all previous U.N. resolutions would be re-imposed –
referred to as snapback – unless the council decided otherwise. If the
previous sanctions are re-imposed they would not apply retroactively to
contracts Iran signed.
End Quote
So either the Joint Commission or the foreign ministers could extend the fifteen-day periods, but other than that, the process should be over within 60 days or so. So by end of March at the latest, the JCPOA will be dead unless a deal if reached.
If it goes to the UNSC, the US will veto sanctions relief, so at that point, the deal will be dead for sure.
Since there is zero chance that Germany, France, Britain, and the EU can offer Iran effective sanctions relief against US sanctions without suffering major US sanctions on them – or they would have done it by now – the deal is effectively dead *now*.
And then what will Iran do? What will Trump do? There’s zero chance for any “new deal” – and Trump is lying about that anyway. The US wants Iran’s capitulation on all points of contention – Iranian uranium enrichment ceased, Iran’s missile program ceased, Iran withdraws from Iraq and Syria and Iran stops supporting its allies in the region – none of which Iran will ever agree to. And of course, regime change is off the table as far as Iran is concerned – which is the US real goal.
So then what? Who can possibly see any other option than war? There simply is no other possible outcome.
War with Iran is inevitable. The only question is when and how it will start – before or after the election? Will Israel and the US attack Lebanon first or not? Who will start it – the US, Israel or Saudi Arabia?