Tweets issued by President Trump and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif are suggesting the two sides may be coming to a position of understanding that would end the tit-for-tat escalation and restore the ex ante situation.
Zarif sought to frame the Tuesday attacks on US targets as “proportionate measures in self-defense under Article 51 of the UN Charter.” He indicated Iran doesn’t intend any further actions. Assuming the US doesn’t attack Iran again, this would settle the matter.
President Trump’s own statement was a lot less clear, emphasizing how great the US military is, but saying that “all is well.” It seems that the US also considering the matter settled is at least possible, though Trump said he is making a statement in the morning.
Considering the circumstances, this could be a best-case scenario and a chance to step down for everyone, capping what looked like a might be progressive escalation on both sides. Neither side has a major reason to launch any more strikes.
Helping in reaching that end situation is that Iran appears to have gone out of its way not to inflict casualties in the strikes. This means Iran can present its retaliation domestically as proportionate, and the Trump Administration doesn’t have any casualties that it feels it has to retaliate over.
This is a very unstable situation. Let us hope the stability lasts.
The bone of contention for Iraq is still the border area with Syria that Israel and US seem to target regularly. Iraq is sure that US is trying to disperse remnants of ISIS and send many back to Iraq. Because everybody knows that ISIIS retreat first from Iraq into Syria, then from Syrian regions further east into area of Syria now controlled by US around Al-Tanf. The question is — how many are still there and who is supporting them.
Many have strangely found their way to Albania and from there to Bosnia. Bizarre situation in Bosnia where such are forming their own communities, demanding their rights to Arabic language and large autonomy. The first such fighters came back in the nineties supporting Bosnian Moslems in war against Bosnian Serbs. And now, more are coming. This will affect the already delicate ethnic balance, and increase tensions.
Maybe the USA will feign care for the Muslims (again) in Albania and bomb Serbia in a new public relations push (again). Like in Afghanistan, Syria and Libya.
You never know. Throwing some little country against the wall once in a while — was considered good practice. The whole Albania is now one big black site. A lots of ISIS from Syria shipped there. I am assuming many are finding their way to Bosnia where can join one of many communes. I hear they are demanding right to speak Arabic and have their own rules apply within communes. Oh well. Just another cult.
“Neither side has a major reason to launch any more strikes”
How do come to such a conclusion? Would you think if Iran murdered the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff then could not agree on why, or offer any proof of immeninant illegal actions, that We the People and the president would be O.K. with the murder & things would return to normal….??? What are you smoking…?????
The accountants run everything….
A lot of people living in fear believed in the performance of the World Theater and Co. and now they feel exhausted.
This is a joke. Did Iran even actually do anything? Sent a few missiles into the sand? Lol
check again.
If you only knew how deep this rabbit hole goes!
The most likely explanation is that Mango Mussolini is just not sober enough to make a decision right now and it has to wait until he’s slept it off, hence the whimsical “All is well” tweet…
Besides, upvoting your own comments is silly, dude.
Incorrect.
The Orange Moron might snort but he doesn’t drink. And we all should hope it’s not what you say for the sake of the Iranian people.
My hope as well, for the sake of all people. If this goes full hot war…
What happened to the much touted US “missile defences”? Apparently as laughable as Israel’s “iron dome” that can’t even beat fireworks and bottle rockets from Gaza. I recall Saudi Barbarias “Patriots” went right back after launch and hit their own launching pads numerous times.
Anyway, this is far from over. Iraq’s Hashd Sha’abi and khataib hezbollah announced they started their own separate retaliation against US regime forces in Iraq for the killing of their leader, Houtis in Yemen warned US ships in the region and Muqtada al Sadr has reactivated his militias that also aims to retaliate and oust US from the region.
Expect president Dump doing a “Baghdad Bob” in his speech later. There were indeed, as expected, US casualties according to local media and Iran now claims the amount to 80 people. This will however be played down instead a Ukrainian 747 crashed after take off from Tehran airport after the attacks.
Unfortunate coincidence? What are the chances of such coincidences? I don’t think so. MH17 comes to mind, no,rather a distraction and a face saving measure from the Iranian slap in the face, since US obviously didn’t dare to hit Iranian military installations. US has done these things before. msm now immediately went over to focus on the plane crash.
Iranian claims are that 80 US military personnel were killed, and NO Iraqis as they were kept out of the “safe position” of the brave US forces.
Jason, I agree with this analysis of yours. Sounds spot on to me.
…..Or else we’d likely see the major networks etc announcing right now massive US ‘retaliation’ with ‘our beautiful missiles’ blah blah
I also tend to believe that most nato countries will get get their troops out of Iraq very quickly, while the US will take more time
Deescalating means removing sanctions except in the American dictionary.
Zarif is trying to de-escalate the crisis. Iran wants to avoid war with the USA. Iran and China are both pursuing very long term policies aimed at removing the US from their expanding spheres of influence. Both believe that peace is in their interests and that war with the USA would disrupt their inevitable rise. Zarif is offering Trump an opportunity to end the confrontation now. I hope Trump takes it.
I believe DJT will accept Zarif’s offer of an opportunity to end the confrontation now, Skywalker. He really doesn’t want a war with Iran (however, Israeli PM Bibi Nutty&Yahoo does). I totally agree ,, Iran certainly doesn’t want a war with the US. Iran and China are both pursuing very long term policies aimed at removing the US from their expanding spheres of influence, and both believe peace is in their interests and war with the US would only disrupt their inevitable rise,
(Trump) really doesn’t want a war with Iran
What makes you say that?
Iran is now officially the first and only country that ever militarily retaliated against a US aggression since WWII.
Thanks to you president Trump, Iran is now regarded as a major and powerful actor in the Middle East.
The American thuggery days are over..
Against my expectations today’s 538 approval rating of President Trump has dropped 0.4 points which for Trump is a significant drop. I had expected a rise in approval. If that rate keeps dropping it does not bode well for Trump’s election campaign. Obviously some voters who supported him before do not approve war with Iran.
Well anything that prevents a full blown war from breaking out.
In view of the killing of its top general and its promise of revenge, Iran had to do something *open* and this is the least-likely-to-provoke-US-airstrikes-in-Iran thing they could have done. Now Iran’s *real *revenge–its “plausibly deniable” revenge–starts. That could take months, so people who think this is over are very mistaken.
Not quite confident in de-escalation:
“Last night, they were given one slap,… Such military actions are not enough as far the importance of retaliation is concerned. What’s important is that (US) corruption-creating presence should end.”
-Ayatollah Khamenei
https://www.wsj.com/articles/irans-supreme-leader-issues-more-threats-at-u-s-after-missile-attack-11578480435
Seems certain that Iran is planning to expel the US from the Middle East and any action they take is going to be seen as provocative. Given Trump’s bombastic nature and vanity (especially with an election looming), the horrific state of our media and the war-minded creeps among Trump’s advisors, I’m less than optimistic.
You’d think the US would jump at this since the obvious difference in what the US did(and has done previously)and what Iran did in retaliation favors the US considerably. But why am I expecting the village idiot to address the nation with more threatening rhetoric which of course will include the fact that he could obliterate Iran if he really wanted to. And will “deescalating” mean the embracing of the JCPOA, the lifting of sanctions that were agreed upon and the removal of our military assets that we have saturated the region with since Trump decided to honor Shelden’s wishes? I won’t hold my breath.
Trump is a terrorist he attacked Syria for lies, now proven by Wikileaks and now the scum attacks Iraq and Iran for no valid reason. Any so called libertarian even an American “Libertarian” will now completely abandon Trump and he has lost the election. What a state terrorist scum Trump is.
Depends on how afraid of Dems and SJWs from what I can see. They may not support Trump foreign policy but they fear the social direction of establishment. Also depends on how economically literate they are vs social libertarian.
Look at the governor election that just happened in Kentucky, it was because the Libertarians voted for their candidate. Trump can’t and won’t legalize or change the schedule of marijuana unless he is ultra desperate, even if he does people with principles do not let a maniacal terrorist who starts wars win them over with marijuana legalization rhetoric – not even a law. No, Trump lost the election with his attack against Iraq-Iran.
Wasn’t saying what they should do but what they will do