Some halting attempts at reconciliation talks aside, the split between Saudi-backed and UAE-backed forces in South Yemen seems to be as complete as ever, with both sides continuing to talk as though they view one another irreconcilably as enemies.
This week that hasn’t meant much, as the two sides seem to be stalemated after a previous fight over Aden, which ended with a victory by UAE-backed separatists aided by UAE airstrikes. But what comes next could easily start another war in South Yemen.
The UAE has called the Saudi-backed government “terrorists” following the fighting, while the government claims the UAE is behind a “coup” plot, and had fooled them by sneaking arms into Aden ahead of the fighting.
Reports had made the arms an issue as far back as June, though the UAE assured others that the weapons were just shipped to Aden temporarily, and were bound for militias fighting the Houthis in North Yemen. Instead, they appear to have been used to arm up separatists who are now in control of Aden.
Such a fight was likely inevitable. The post-war vision of the Saudis was just the defeat of the Houthis in the north, while the UAE always sought to have key allies in power around the country’s southern coast. It may have been possible to balance these two goals at one point, but now it seems both believe they can achieve their goal militarily.
Yemen is the polar opposite of Korea in that it is two distinct nations with two distinct identities that were forced together for reasons of imperial expediency. Just as Korea will know no peace until that peninsula is united, Yemen will know no peace until the North and South are divided. As surreal as this might sound, the usually despotic UAE is actually doing the right thing, even if they are doing it for all the wrong reasons. The Houthis should be working on a peace deal with their cousins to the south rather than the Yankee creeps who conspired to sow them together.
The big question is, will the Saudi’s build a moat bordering UAE like they did with Qatar?