The New York Times may have referred to it as “The Secret History of the Push to Strike Iran,” but it’s hardly a secret that Israeli and US hawks have been angling for a war against Iran for decades.
Trying to advance a war narrative is a high priority for the hawks, and recent reports suggest that the Netanyahu government is once again actively considering just unilaterally attacking Iran without US permission.
That may seem like a very bold move, but some in the cabinet are arguing it really isn’t, saying Trump’s determination to be the most pro-Israel president ever means he’s probably not do anything to actively oppose Israeli aggression.
In recent history, of course, US policy has been to ignore Israeli aggression, or outright endorse it internationally. Israeli officials had reason to believe that President Obama would resist an attack however during their last major run-up to an attack, in 2012, which they ultimately called off.
Timing may be the key to any immediate attack. Israel faces elections in just two weeks, and Netanyahu’s recent attacks on “Iranian proxies” across the region were already seen as a bid for a last minute bump. He may believe, with polls still showing him trailing, that a direct attack is the next step.
The history of Israel’s foreign policy in recent years, indeed decades has been heavily Iran-centric, both with the various governments playing up Iran as an existential threat, and lobbying heavily to keep the US from making any positive diplomatic efforts.
This long-time acrimony is no secret to Iran, either, which is why Iran has spent the past decades building up its air defenses and potential retaliation in the event the long-threatened attack happens.
The Israelis like Netanyahu do not want to fight a war with Iran.
They want the US to fight a war with Iran.
Trump is unlikely to do anything to stop Israel. However, he is also unlikely to fight a war they start with Iran. He can be relied upon to do nothing, but he can’t be relied upon to do anything.
Correct, or at the very least they want the U.S. to keep this maximum aggression campaign going because at least our sanctions are killing some Iranians who can’t get medical care.
If Israel wanted to attack they would just attack. They bomb their neighbors without warning, they don’t talk about it. This is Kabuki theater.
this is on a totally different level.
You are almost correct. Israel doesn’t attack Iran because Hezbollah. However, this article is “Kabuki theater” intended to get the US to join Israel in attacking Hezbollah – not Iran – yet.
And Trump *can* be motivated to attack Hezbollah. There is no real downside for him in doing so, despite any “promises” he made about not starting new wars. He won’t be *starting* a new war – he will be *supporting a US ally who was attacked.* And his base will buy into that.
This is precisely the situation . Israel is upping the ante in this high stake game of chicken. But Israel has a potentially for us a damaging way out. If Iran is hit, tactically, and response is symmetrical— US.will have a large platform from which to build the case to attack Iran. There will be heart breaking stories, movies and think tank shows, everything and anything to wear popular resistance down and generate appetite for war.
Israel is in a hurry. If US economy takes a turn for the worse, Israel can expect less enthusiasm for a war. This decades long saga of bad Iran is having its toll on a weary public, more concerned about dodgy jobs then geopolitics. Unless there is some organizing around accountability for taxpayers’s money, that would reveal just how much of our resources, money, government staff, subsidies to private organizations go to foreign meddling — public concerns will not stop war profiteers.
I disagree. I think when it comes to Israel, Trump would follow the clamoring. And just imagine the clamoring.
I believe Israel stole the election for Trump, and he was installed for this particular purpose. It’s all been a charade with no meaning except this – his moment of ultimate use – to destroy Iran with American firepower. Netanyahu’s aggression is evidence. He knows if Iran attacks Israel, the U.S. is all-in.
Not necessarily for trump, but for the GOP, which has no faction critical of Israel. They knew trump was a GOP rubber stamp, and were pleasantly surprised at how much trump would screw Palestinians on his own sociopathy.
it wasn’t just Republicans but democrats too,. see the hold the Clintons had on the Democratic party? imagine Hillary cornering the market on being the decider in the White House so everyone was happy with Trump. Look at spending, through the roof. special interests very happy. and the populace has their hands wrapped round each others throats, screaming at each other.
antar,,no one stole the election,,that is BS!!! Now as to Trump giving #ral pleasure to nutyahoo,,,for sure Trump will! The USA is I#raels bitc#! 🙁
Israel will attack Iran, Iran will retaliate. Possibly even some US troops who are exposed will suffer casualties—this collateral blowback will have been intended by Israel. The US MSM will report it as Iran attacking unprovoked. The vocal and typically blood thirsty US populace will demand action. Israels misguided wet dream will come true.
and the war will be the end of Empire USA.
And, the beginning of WWIII because both Russia and China won’t like all those US troops and hardware on their side of the world next to their countries, will they?
only if enough Americans are killed in a telegenic attention grabbing way.
Israel will include in its planning a more careful repeat of the Liberty incident. It will be much easier with today’s technology of unidentified missiles and torpedos
Bill,,Remember The USS Liberty Massacre!!!
IDF aircraft violate Iranian airspace and attack Iranian facilities inside Iran.
Iran defends itself, shooting down a number of IDF attackers.
Israel runs to the US claiming its right to self-defense.
And the US tells Israel it’s on its own, John .. Bibzy Nutty&Yahoo will be snubbed by DJT, who’ll say “I warned you not to attack Iran, but you did it anyway. Now you’ll pay the consequences for your aggression”.
Truth is, DJT doesn’t want a war with Iran .. He’s been negotiating with his Iranian counterpart Rouhani behind the scenes for some time. He knows Russia and China will come to Iran’s aid if Nutty&Yahoo’s crazy enough to wage aggressive war against Iran.
You talk as if none of this mess if of Trump’s making. He promised it during his campaign and he’s delivering. Read the stories of the suffering of the average Iranian citizen and then tell us why Trump isn’t responsible for their suffering. Trump declared war on Iran the day he violated the agreement and has relentlessly continued that war unabated to this day.
C’mon wars, you know the drill, trump wants peace, he’s talking to the Iranians, Dorian heading to Alabama…..those bad things, dead Iranians, destroyed treaty and economy, all caused by “deep state”, bolton, Israelis, CNN, whoever….
“And the US tells Israel it’s on its own”
You’re hallucinating if you think that is even remotely a possibility.
And Russia and China will not directly aid Iran, other than supplying arms and probably intelligence. There will be no direct military support.
There is zero evidence of any current negotiations between the US and Iran – as opposed to during the Obama period.
http://i.imgur.com/IpWpnRP.jpg
The notion that what has been holding Israel back from attacking anyone has been US reaction is simply not credible. Israel attacks who it wants when it wants and US reaction is pretty much the least of its worries. Heck they have previously attacked the US itself and killed American servicemen when they felt they had to, with minimal detriment.
The reason they have not attacked Iran thus far is because it would be an amazingly stupid thing to do; but, hey, perhaps stupid time is s here.
The only reason it would be stupid is – Hezbollah.
And that’s the point of this article – get the US to help Israel take out Hezbollah.
There’s a reason this article came out shortly after Israel attacked Hezbollah last week.
Very short term thinking. Israel knows that the long term natural powers of the ME area are itself, Egypt, Turkey, and Iran. These are the nations with the cultural coherence, wealth, and size to make a difference over time as the short term Petro-$$ fueled Arab wealth fizzles out.
Therefore, it would be a very bad move for Israel to make permanent enemies of any of these three nations by actually attacking them needlessly. This is what has stayed their hand these past 20 years.
Israel attacked Egypt back in the day, but has little reason to attack them today as they support Israel in oppressing the Palestinians on their side of Palestine and are a US ally subordinate to the US with regard to Israel. Israel has no reason to attack Turkey at all.
So your comment on those countries is irrelevant.
Iran is a very different proposition as anyone with any knowledge of Israel knows for a fact. The “long-term” goal of Israel is a completely destabilized Middle East with most of the countries that aren’t under total control of the US fractured and failed.
The only thing which has stayed their hand with regard to Iran over the last 20 years is the fact that they haven’t been able to get the US to authorize their attack or attack Iran itself is because the US has been busy with Afghanistan and Iraq – and the fact that Hezbollah has been an immediate *local* threat.
Hezbollah can devastate the Israel economy by forcing the Israeli population into bomb shelters 24×7. No strategic planner or politician in Israel would risk Hezbollah acting in concert with Iran in an Iran war, not since the failed effort in 2006 to eliminate Hezbollah. So the goal now is to get the US to help Israel degrade Hezbollah enough to enable an Iran war without major problems for Israel.
This article’s purpose is to support that.
Thanks for sharing all your comments.
Oh please!! They whined to U.S after they got 100 of their infantry killed by Hezbollah in 2006.
Is Nathan Yahoo, so desperate to form an emergency government to avoid jail and risk death and destruction of his country?
*If* Netanyahu is seriously considering attacking Iran, then either he is very desperate about the elections or he has an ironclad guarantee from Trump that he will be supported by the US immediately after the attack and that the US will prosecute the war for him.
However, I doubt both of these possibilities. I believe this article is just a “limited hangout.”
From Wikipedia: “A limited hangout or partial hangout is, according to former special assistant to the Deputy Director of the Central Intelligence Agency Victor Marchetti, ‘spy jargon for a favorite and frequently used gimmick of the clandestine professionals. When their veil of secrecy is shredded and they can no longer rely on a phony cover story to misinform the public, they resort to admitting—sometimes even volunteering—some of the truth while still managing to withhold the key and damaging facts in the case. The public, however, is usually so intrigued by the new information that it never thinks to pursue the matter further.'”
Note that last sentence. This happens a lot, including even among people who should no better – like the writers and readers at this site. As I’ve said before, always ask the *next* question about any new alleged news.
In this case, it is clear that Israel wants to attack Iran, but short of nuking Tehran – which would be a geopolitical disaster for Israel – Israel has no ability to actually do significant damage to Iran due to the distance between the two countries. Everyone knows only the US can do significant damage to Iran – and would do so if Iran attacked Israel. But there is no *guarantee* the US would support Israel if Israel unilaterally attacked Iran, especially over something as nebulous as “the threat of Iranian proxies” – because everyone knows “Iranian proxies” in Syria and Iraq are no significant threat to Israel, whatever Netanyahu says.
And while most of the US electorate believes Iran has a “nuclear weapons program” – because they’ve been told that by every US President, and Israel, and the New York Times and the rest of the mainstream media – most of the rest of the world knows that there is no significant threat to Israel from Iran based on Iran’s current nuclear energy program. Therefore they understand that there is no military reason for Israel to attack Iran unilaterally.
What is not being mentioned – the part of the limited hangout that is being withheld – in this article and in all the hype about “Iranian proxies” is who the real target is – Hezbollah in Lebanon. I’ve covered the reasons why before so I won’t repeat it here.
What this article is claiming is that Netanyahu is seriously considering attacking Iran unilaterally and most importantly *without dealing with Hezbollah first.* That is the part that is being ignored.
Now it may be possible that Netanyahu thinks that if he attacks Iran, and Hezbollah retaliates along with Iran, that the US will be willing to both attack Iran *and* support Israel in a new war with Hezbollah as well as defending Israel from Iranian retaliation. I think it’s quite possible that Netanyahu is both that calculating and that stupid. Even if the war works out, he would be finished in Washington for forcing the US to divide its forces between Lebanon and Iran – which the Pentagon is likely to reject from a “two-front war” perspective. Even more important, the Israeli military is likely to be seriously unhappy with that prospect, as they have more to lose from such circumstances.
Note that the article does say that Netanyahu could not get the support of his security cabinet back in 2012 – including Benny Gantz, his current election opponent – because of the risk. What it does *not* say is that the risk comes from Hezbollah – not so much from Iran. Iran by itself can not “destroy” Israel or even do serious damage to Israel – because Iran will be fighting the US, not Israel, and will be devoting most of its military assets to attacking US assets in the region, not Israel. Hezbollah is the real threat to Israel – and the only real threat to Israel.
I believe this New York Times article is just a load of bull intended to continue to ramp up the propaganda about the “Iran threat to Israel” – with the immediate goal being to get the US to join Israel – not in attacking Iran – *yet* – but in attacking Hezbollah.
What Netanyahu may quite likely do before the Israeli election – or if he wins, before the US election – is foment an incident to start a war with Hezbollah, and attempt to force Trump to join Israel in supporting that war. And they are absolutely correct that Trump is likely to be willing to do so, because Trump can spin that as a positive “anti-terrorist” action in support of Israel – nominally a “US ally” – and not a unilateral new Mid-East war.
In fact, we’ve just seen Netanyahu attack Hezbollah last week – while disguising the specificity of the attack by attacking targets in Syria and – ridiculously from a military standpoint – in Iraq. So he’s already attempted to start a war with Hezbollah. So far Hezbollah has been measured in its response, as expected. But if Netanyahu continues to provoke Hezbollah, he will get his war. But it will be a war with Hezbollah, not Iran.
And there is no way Trump will stay out of it. But Trump’s “justification” will be based on garbage like this New York Times piece. Which is why it was published.
The Israelis can’t really deliver anything in heavy enough quantities to do anything more than shift the dust and annoy the Iranians who won’t do anything.
fake news, israel has been “considering seriously” attacking iran for 30 years now.
the only problem is that in order for it to work 10s of thousands of Americans will have to die turning iran in to a smoldering ruin, oh and Hezbollah has to be totally destroyed aswell.
war drums playing the same old song, but until Hezbollah is weakened or destroyed war with iran is simply off the table.
Why, when its so much easier to get Uncle Sam and his gullible sheep-filled military to do it for you?
Nobody knows what is going to happen if…………..??
America has no appetite for war.
Go for it Israel. You’re on your own.