The Pentagon issued a statement on Wednesday expressing concern about a
new Turkish military buildup along the border of northeast Syria,
warning Turkey against carrying out military retaliation over new US sanctions.
The Pentagon statement warned they would consider any “unilateral
actions into northeastern Syria,” particularly targeting US personnel
present in the area, would be “unacceptable” for the US.
Northeastern Syria is controlled more or less entirely by Syrian Kurdish
forces, with US troops in the country backing them. Turkey has long
wanted to invade this territory to chase out the Kurds, and has
expressed willingness to confront the US in doing so, if necessary.
Turkey clearly has long prefer not to fight the US, hence their
oft-threatened invasion hasn’t happened. The mounting tensions with the
sanctions, however, may be convincing Turkey to be more aggressive.
Turkey’s government probably will want to assert itself again in the
region, and that might involve a move against the Kurds, or kicking the
US out of a base in Turkey. Its highly unlikely they’d attack the US
directly, but the Pentagon apparently thinks its possible enough.
The Turks are flirting with disaster.
US is flirting with disaster. Currently, US has no idea what to do in Syria, except that it wants to stay, and force others to concede the fact of occupation. But the occupation is only over a patch of land around Al-Tanf, on a major Iraq-Syria highway. But Iraq and Syria established other links. The rest of Euphrates valley is nominally controlled by Kurds, nut population is 99% Arab Syrians. Frequent rebellions were suppressed , labeled as ISIS fight. Kurds cannot sustain that, and US cannot go into full occupation mode. Kurds are majority in Kobane town and surroundings— but US has put checkpoints close to Turkish border, a tripwire. This is what US is alluding to.
But Turkey must do something — so does Damascus. Kurds have a deal on the table. Reintegrate with Damascus, with good chances at the Constitutional Convention to negotiate local autonomy. Russia is encouraging this. Turkey comes in if Kurds vacillate— under US pressure. In short, US demands Kurds keep status quo, but promising nothing. Turkey will not likely come in at checkpoints, and into Kurd stronghold. I am guessing that most likely direction is Al-Bab to Raqqa. Turkey is already concentrated there, and this is a path through Arab territory.
USA & Turkey: Weasels fighting in a hole.
Is Turkey going to replace Iran as the big baddy?
After the first shot aimed at a Turkish soldier, the Dardanelles will close for US ships.
What would be fun is if Putin has suggested to Erdogan that it would be advantageous for everyone if the US were to be kicked out of Syria. It would benefit Turkey, Russia and Syria if that were to happen, although it would probably aggravate tensions between Turkey and Syria if Turkey continued to grab land in northeast and northwest Syria. Russia might figure they could mediate that since eventually Russia and Syria will have to take out the Al Qaeda affiliates in northwestern Syria anyway and Erdogan isn’t going to want to go against Putin.
Russia, Turkey and Syria have all been kicking the can down the road over northwestern and northeastern Syria for a couple years now. Eventually that will have to be resolved. The US will be the loser in that case as well.
Pleas explain why US troops are in Syria at all.
“Turkey’s government probably will want to assert itself again in the region, and that might involve a move against the Kurds, or kicking the US out of a base in Turkey. ”
I’m cool with what’s behind door number two.
Door number 2 is cool, door number 1 is perfectly fair. Hey, if sending soldiers into someone else’s country (without permission) to kill people and further your own narrow but ill-defined interests is ok, then every country can do it.
Attacking US soldiers on foreign soil would be fair. Attacking their Kurdish attaches would be understandable. Attacking the Kurds in general would just be the latest in a long list of acts of ethnic violence by a historically racist and revanchist nation. The Kurds have a right to their land, even if they do have bad taste in geostrategic bedfellows.