Afghan officials are determined to not publish death tolls for their forces as they face major pushes from the Taliban. They do, however, admit that the casualties are higher than in any previous comparable period.
The record casualties were a bit more closely defied by Defense Secretary James Mattis, who said over 1,000 Afghan security forces suffered casualties in August and September. This was done to praise them for continuing to fight.
But they’re fighting and losing. The record casualties are not coming as part of some costly offensive by the Afghan government, but rather amid mounting losses. Afghan government control in the country is shrinking apace, and shows now sign of slowing, despite the eternal optimism of the Pentagon.
One of the most immediate concerns with the casualties is that the Afghan government’s official troop figures have always been inflated. In reality, much of the army exists only on paper, and as very real troops suffer casualties, the remaining percentage of the military that is wholly imaginary only grows.
The Afghan Army is more complex than this describes, and the damage it is suffering is even worse as details are understood.
Part of the Army has always been pretended numbers, covering corruption that steals the pay and supplies and weapons, selling much of that to the enemy.
Part of the “Army” has been merely warlord militias anyway. Those each have their own stories, but their numbers conceal the % loss to the real Army.
Part of the Army has always been allowed to go home on leave, a rotation that has something like a third of its numbers not present for duty at any one time. Many don’t come back when things go badly. That is a hidden loss from a number that is not so big as pretended.
Part of the Army, a small part, is a genuinely competent elite. It rushes around as a fire brigade to rescue the rest, the under-strength, under-trained, and mere militia. It is suffering a disproportionate part of the casualties, and it is much harder for the Afghans to replace.
In this overall picture, there is less Afghan Army, and more of it is destroyed or gone.
How does Matthis know this? The Pentagon doesn’t even report its own battle casualties. It only reports deaths and calls them casualties.
as very real troops suffer casualties, the remaining percentage of the military that is wholly imaginary only grows.
Mattis in Wonderland.