Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced a visit to North Korea last week, and just a few hours later, President Trump cancelled it. According to officials familiar with the situation, this happened because of a “belligerent” letter from North Korea received in between the announcements.
Specifics on the letter are unclear, but the letter was said to be from Kim Yong Chol, a top official, and were delivered through the New York Channel, which is to say North Korean diplomats at the UN.mission.
Whatever was in the letter was enough to convince Trump to reverse course entirely on the talks, and to publicly fault North Korea for lack of progress. Even more interestingly, Trump also blamed China for the lack of progress, even though China appears in no way involved in this letter.
The officials who commented on the letter also suggested that this lack of progress is providing another opportunity for John Bolton to push Trump to back away from the talks in favor of a tougher stance. They say Bolton and Defense Secretary James Mattis were both pushing back against the possibility of making a peace deal with North Korea, and this will make them push all the harder.
With Trump having heavily committed to diplomacy in the past, some expected him to keep the process going in spite of stumbling blocks. That seems no longer to be the case, however.
My guess is the letter contained references to Iran and whether the US could be trusted to sticking to a deal.
Even Antiwar are failing to grasp the enormous criminality of the economic war on Iran. The media is silent on the Adelson/Pence/Pompeo/Bolton factor yet from day one all the foreign policy appointments were focused on just one aspect. i.e. Iran. Its as if all the other countries don’t exist even North Korea.
First off the USA should offer a formal peace treaty with N. Korea and have it backed by S. Korea, then next move has to be on N. Korea. The continued attacks on Prez. Trump by the deep State and MSM will have an adverse affect on the foreign policy agenda he, Trump, truly wants, and that is part of their goal.
Trump isn’t about to get rolled like Obama, Bush or Clinton,
the Norks either get with the program or suffer.
The Sorks disagree with you
The Sorks, don’t matter.
If they have the power to kick out the Americans, and also are capable of building their own nukes, they matter. Hint: they can do both, the latter within 72 hours. Only an arrogant American would claim that South Korea doesn’t matter. If you are an example of what “peace” means to Trumpsters, I don’t want to hear any more from them.
They have the power to kick the US out, not likely.
because Kim would be running the entire peninsula in no time,
and they know it
They could EVENTUALLY build their own nukes, but it would be much easier to just buy them from us. Something the Norks and ChiComs might think about.
Only an arrogant socialist, Liberal would claim that with two superpowers squaring off, that either the Norks or Sorks “matter”. So naive.
So you think with an economy more than 30 X N Korea, S. Korea can’t defend itself if the US agreed to leave in say 5 years?
No question and only a fool would ask.
An economy means nothing
when you are facing a million+ man Nork army,
sitting on a tiny Peninsula
with the ChiCom’s backing your play.
The Sorks would be committing suicide to ask the US to leave.
You remind me of Norman Schwarzkopf’s comments on Saddam’s strengths as a military planner.
The situations are not analogous,
but Saddam did miscalculate and lose.
You didn’t answer the question. And no way would China back an action by N Korea on the South. Only someone ignorant of China would propose something so absurd.
Btw, South Korea has a larger population than NK.
I answered you sammy, the size of the Sork’s economy doesn’t matter when it comes to defending themselves from a million+ man army roaring across the DMZ like it was a speed bump.
China’s “backing” would only have to be in continuing trade and material. And the Sork’s larger population of effete liberals also doesn’t matter. Firepower, matters, the Norks have it and they have the will,
the Sorks not so much.
So you tell me, why don’t the Sorks just order us out?
The Pinos did, and we left,
now they get lose fishing rights and islands in the south China Sea and have to accept whatever the
good graces of the ChiComs will allow.
Naive sammy.
Sure. 5 years to prepare, 30 X the economy, a larger population. Only the US can save those poor South Koreans.
You obviously don’t know any South Koreans, know anything about the regional political sphere, anything about economics, military strategy or pretty much anything else.
But you do know how to bluster. That’s all you got.
You, … didn’t answer my question.
Why don’t the Sorks throw us out?
Because it’s cheaper. Idiots in the USA are willing to pay for their defence, why not?
While the South Koreans build their economy, the manfacturing sectors in the USA languish. Those who support the globalist agenda love people like you.
The Norks were threatening the Pacific,
Japan, Guam, Hawaii and the west coast. Is that OK with you?
The problem is not entirely local.
The North Koreans asserted that if attacked, they would use nukes in self-defense, and that US bases in Japan, Guam and Hawaii were not necessarily out of their reach in that case.
I can see why that might seem like a “threat” to those who suffer from megalomania on behalf of the US, but not so much to anyone else.
Kim’s regime has been more barbaric than any other, on the planet.
Launching ICBM’s over Japan and threatening Guam should not
be ignored.
“Launching ICBM’s over Japan and threatening Guam should not be ignored.”
Neither should flying nuclear-capable bombers over the Korean peninsula and threatening “fire and fury” against North Korea.
As to which regimes are now or have been most barbaric, Kim’s has had plenty of competition even if you believe every story you’re told.
The US response to Kim’s provocations were a RESPONSE!
Israel, Pakistan and India did not need a RESPONSE because they did not threaten the US.
Hey, if your religion makes you feel better, don’t let me talk you out of it.
Those a just facts Tom, religion has nothing to do with it.
Yes of course. The impoverished country with no industrial infrastructure, no navy, having a hard time feeding itself is obviously a existential threat to the entire world.
Having nukes and friends back them like the ChiComs and Russia is all they need.
“I answered you sammy, the size of the Sork’s economy doesn’t matter when it comes to defending themselves from a million+ man army roaring across the DMZ like it was a speed bump.”
The South Korean army fields 625,000 active troops and another 3.1 million in reserve who don’t have to spend most of their time picking fruit to try to feed a starving population. It has four times the budget, uses more modern equipment and weapons systems than the North, and if the North invaded would have the advantages that go with a fixed defense where the attacker doesn’t have a lot of tactical optionality and where the attacker’s troop and gun dispositions are fairly well known in advance.
That’s not to say the North might not win, but it wouldn’t be the race for Pusan that it was in 1950. And if the South knew that it had five years to stand up because the US was standing down over that same time period, it would certainly bulk up its organic defenses even more.
Kim has nukes and isn’t afraid to use them,
he also has the largest artillery array on the planet,
capable of destroying Seoul in an afternoon.
And if anyone thinks China would not assist, they would be crazy.
That said, I do agree with you,
IF—-Kim agrees to dismantle his nukes and ICBM’s (all verified of course)
I would set a 5 year horizon for the complete removal of all US troops and turn the future of the peninsula over to the Koreans.
“he also has the largest artillery array on the planet, capable of destroying Seoul in an afternoon.”
Highly unlikely, since Seoul is at extreme rocket-assisted artillery range from the DMZ. Before he could effectually shell Seoul he would have to both successfully breach the DMZ and relocate his artillery across it. More importantly, he would have to supply that artillery. And he would have to do so under fire from not quite as much, but better artillery and under South Korean air superiority. Not counting the hypothetically absent US forces, of course.
Here’s a reasonably good piece (except for its misunderstanding of the utility of chemical weapons — they’re a territory-denial weapon and not especially effective at causing terror/mass casualties assuming they’re expected — and the obvious anti-North motive slant.
Seoul would not be “destroyed in an afternoon.” Or for that matter at all. If the war lasted for months and remained focused on the DMZ area, it would take heavy damage. But the more likely outcome is that if the war lasted months, at that point the North would be trying to turn Pyongyang into Stalingrad and hoping like hell the Chinese were willing to do what they did in 1950 again, which is highly unlikely.
You have ignored the nuclear threat
but OK,
let’s look at the conventional threat alone.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2017/10/02/why-the-north-korean-artillery-factor-makes-military-action-extremely-risky-infographic/#7f42caf317ee
Then add the nuclear threat and an uninterrupted supply line from Beijing.
Seoul would be toast in short order.
Hopefully we’ll never find out. But, my opinion is fairly simple:
“The North Korean threat” is largely a marketing campaign for the US military-industrial complex.
We saw how ancient Soviet equipment performs against the good stuff in a conventional war scenario in Iraq. Twice.
Head to head in a conventional confrontation with a South Korea that had 3-5 years to take full charge of its defenses, the North might manage the upper hand and the strategic offensive for 48-72 hours just on the mass differential — more troops and more shells. At 96 hours that offensive would be coming apart at the seams. At two weeks, it would be Pyongyang taking the shelling.
OK, a couple of questions then.
Do the Norks have nuclear capability, yes or no?
Do the Norks have ICBM capability, yes or no?
I want OUT of Korea,
but not until I know the Norks are disarmed of nuclear capability.
Your opinion (hypothesis) is only that, a guess.
We need proof before leaving.
Yes, the North has a small nuclear capability and a developing ICBM capability. They will continue to have both. The only question is whether they continue to expand/improve their nuclear arsenal, improve their ICBM capability, and and work toward matching the two for the ability to deliver nukes at long range.
Demanding proof of something that is never, ever, under any circumstances going to happen before leaving is basically saying that no, you don’t really want to leave and are looking for an excuse not to.
Why would we leave when Kim is actively developing those weapons and return to his nuclear threatening ways? Do you want him to have the ability to threaten Japan, Guam, Hawaii and eventually the west coast?
Isn’t a denuclearization peace deal a preferable goal?
Do you actually trust a guy who runs his country the way he does,
executes perceived enemies with anti-aircraft guns,
murders his own family members???
Sorry, we can prove compliance if we persist, it’s not impossible.
Then there is no reason to stay.
“Isn’t a denuclearization peace deal a preferable goal? ”
Absolutely.
Of course, I’ve seen nothing to suggest that the US is prepared to denuclearize. It only demands that of OTHERS, even though it is itself committed by treaty to the prospect.
Israel, Pakistan and India have nukes,
but they don’t threaten the US or other countries with them as NKorea has.
That’s a big difference.
The South Koreans could build their own nukes in short order, and buying them from the US is not an option, because the US won’t sell them nukes. And, yes, SK cooperation is required for the US to remain in South Korea, which is a sovereign country. And since the South and North Koreans are continuing their own talks, even after the US stopped talking, they count at least as much as either superpower. Only an arrogant imperialistic jackass would look at this situation and see only “superpowers squaring off.” And only an ignorant Trumpster would claim that anyone who disagrees with his assessment is a “socialist” or a “Liberal.” But then, the Trumpster doesn’t exist who understands those words as anything but an epithet.
The North’s and South’s “agreement”
will be meaningless with out the superpower’s endorsements.
Color yourself hopelessly naive.
Realpolitik,
Trumps your flight of the unicorns.
Any real progress on Korea must come from the Koreans, not from the idiots in Washington who expect instant results to complex questions, exacerbated by new US sanctions on DPRK.
ROK President Moon is scheduled to visit Chairman Kim in Pyongyang next month as stipulated in the April 27 Panmunjon Declaration:
details here