The Egyptian Foreign Ministry has confirmed that they are considering joining an “Arab force” to invade Syria. They said this possibility has been discussed with officials from a number of different countries. Saudi Arabia had also recently confirmed they are considering such a move.
This “Arab Force” would be from countries favoring regime change in Syria. The idea was proposed last month by the Trump Administration, which sees the Arab Force as a replacement for the US ground troops currently in Syria.
This was initially sold as a “stabilization” operation in Syria’s northeast, which is the Kurdish-held region. Clearly, such a deployment would not be endorsed by the Syrian government, and would eventually lead to direct military clashes with Syrian forces.
While the nations involved in the Arab Force aren’t all named, the Saudis and Egyptians’ involvement suggests it will mirror the Saudi-led invasion of Yemen. This US-backed invasion of Yemen has been calamitous, killing large numbers of civilians, and failing to achieve its military goals.
It is a surprise, given how bad Yemen has gone, that Egypt and the Saudis are willing to consider throwing together another force to invade Syria. US officials see this as a way to get US forces out of Syria, though it’s unclear if the Kurds are on board with the plan.
I pity the poor beggars they send in. They’ll come under fire from all sides workout the firepower of the US Airforce to shield them.
US air force flies bombing runs in Syria.
Will the Egyptians, Saudis be more or even a lot more welcome to come and stay in N.E. Syria than Americans?
I guess other countries are taking our lead in announcing their intentions of violating Syria’s sovereignty. Hopefully Russia will step in and make both of those countries pay a steep price.
No, both of them need Russia, and are in many ways already behind the sceenes in communication with Russia. This is similar to the role of Turkey, where Damascus protested, but Turkey accomplished two major goals. Prevented linking two Kurd ateas, Afrin and Kobane, by cutting through Jarabulus-Al-Bab corridor. Also, it took under its command a variety of local rebel forces. Russia and Turkey hhave already establushed checkpoints in Idlib, allowing civilians to flee. Saudi Arabia will likely take under control remaining mercenaries — it pays them anyway. Saudi Arabia may also provide protection for Kibane Kurds. Egypt will take charge of the vast area populated by Syrians, prople who want to be rulled by Damascus. Such areas, like Raqqa, are in dire need of demining, restoring utilities, and demolishing unsafe buildings. US — at least that is announced — will financially help recovery efforts in this! region that is not under Damascus control. However, if US hopes to bribe local officials to be anti-Damascus as the condition to get money, in the lingvrun it will not work. With Syria, Turkey, Iraq and Iran being alligned against US control of the region, it is not likely that Saydi Arabia and Eggpt will consent to that. It remains to be seen if France will try to keep its toe in, but Turkey already warned France.
If in the end we see only regional players in Syria (Russia and Iran are regional), then it will be the first time in the history of Middle East since the fall of Ottoman empire, that no Western power is controling the outcome of a conflict.
It can be the formula that delivers face saving exit to US . Egypt and Saudi are getting into the game more publcily and with more man power to bring that into effect Once US is out, these 2 nations will withdraw or even may not send anybody to begin with. Unless sadui is provided robust security by foreign troops, its borders and cities will be hammered by Syrian army .The war is over Kurd need adjustment Turkey is winner Iran and Iraq Syria is standing but devastated Saudis will compromise ith Iran and reach to Russia Saudi will try China but the price is de dollaraization of Petro. What a great achievements for US Saudi and UAE
I share your assessment. This is not an invasion force, but both, face saving force, and stabilization force. Consider facts. Egypt is very tightly linked with Russiia. Egypt has pulled out of Yemen a while ago, before the current Crown Prince reign. At that time, I know how memories are short, Saudi Arabia punished Egypt by stopping supply of already paid for oil. Iran stepped in to fill the gap. Saudi Arabia under former Crown Prince was CIA run, and brought the Kingdom into financial difficulties by funding mercenary terror/cult groups world wide, by extending massive loans to Egypt after the fall of Moslem Brotherhood. Egypt conceeded to repay ghe loans by transferring two islands in Red Sea to Saudi Arabia. This move was very unpopular in Egypt, but had a good fringe benefit. All Salafis that Saudi Arabia funded forbyears, and were the cause if Mirsi’s demise, have turned patriotic, and blame Saudi Arabia for “steeling” islands.
Saudi Arabia had a palace coup for a reason. Many changes are made already, and many on the way. It is also niw clear that the war in Yemen is US war, kind of leading from behind. But now that US role is exposed — down to guarding Saudi borders — Saudi Arabia can start shifting the dialogue. Game playing with Qatar is also getting rather transparent. US wanted Saudi Arabia to teach Qatar a lesson, for its relationship with Iran, especially the fate of shared gas field. But after the palace coup, in Cairo, all demands were rephrased as principles. But US still wants Saudis to keep pressure, while acting the opposite. Why did Saudis recommend Qatar gives forces for Syria? A goid joke, as Turkey is having a military base in Qatar, and Turkey would love nothing more then Qatar in Syria! Realistically, Saudi Arabia needs Russia to support the price regime for oul, and hundreds of contracts they signed allowing Saudi investments in Russia and Russian in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia needs China, as it is its biggest customer. The Belt and Road initiative is dangling in front if Saudi Arabia, as it was not successful in transitioning away from oil industry. Such vast Eurasian initiative is just what Saudi Arsbia needs. If course,Samascus will protest, asvit us orotesting against Turkey. But Turkey has solved a major problem for Stria, and that is seccession of US reserved Kurd region. As it fell appart, US is accepting Turkish red line, and Syria will not be partitioned.
We will see if this materializes, as some in US are stilll hell bent in stayingvin Syria and continuing chais. But Trump is not in favor of staying, and the neicons cannot find a good reason to force him to stay. What remainsvto be seen is the packet of demands that US would place on such stabilization force. Political settlement is looming. I think that the last ditch neocon hope is Idlib. One more chance fot White Helmets video production of chemical attack, one more chance of collective Western shrieking about barrel bombs, brutal Russian bombing, name it.
But perhaps US concluded that even if they waited ffor this event — what would be the outcome? Would West bomb again? They cannot touch Russia as it was made amply clear what would be the consequences. They cannot invade. I am sureb some of the most hardline among them are suggesting “slapping” Russia a bit — just to feel its resolve. But very likely, this was rejected. West has no hypersonic assets to overcome sophisticated defenses. And are in fear of submarine drones, as nobody really knows if the weapon withbpractically no vulnerability is still in testing, in production, or are iceans already infested with them. With so many unkniwns — option of sending friendly or at least nominally friendly force — lioks like a solution. Until they figure out Russia-China riddle.
I would have to say the Syrian Army would make short work of these forces, I guess the Americans would supply air support to help them avoid annihilation. I wonder how the Russian air defenses would react to a Saudi invasion (Mercenary Insurgency) with American air support?
“Clearly, such a deployment would not be endorsed by the Syrian government, and would eventually lead to direct military clashes with Syrian forces.”
Actually, it’s probably a good idea. And like as not, no “clashes”.
With the American troops out of there, the Syrians and Russians would be free to bomb the living s*** out of whoever took their place. That prospect would make it eminently practical and very easy for the Egyptians and Saudis to bug out.
It is said that it’s easy to get into a war in hard to get out. This looks like the perfect weasel maneuver to allow the United States to save face, yet still get the hell out of Syria.
The Kurds will need protection from the Turks, which will lead them to make an accommodation with the Assad government. With that issue settled, the Syrian army will be free to focus its full strength on retaking Idlib.
Good let the Arabs fight their own wars.