With its nuclear and missile programs having advanced substantially over the past several months, North Korea is now ready for direct nuclear negotiations with the United States, according to a message delivered to US officials by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
Details of the plan delivered from Lavrov to Rex Tillerson weren’t totally clear, though in recent weeks North Korea has suggested they envision Russia being involved in any such talks as well. Lavrov says North Korea’s main goal in the talks is security guarantees.
This is unsurprising, as North Korea’s foreign policy seems to be built more or less entirely on the notion that a US invasion could happen at any moment, and they’ve been very public about their nuclear program being designed to deter the US from launching a costly war.
There was no word out of the State Department on any US response to such talks. Though Tillerson has advocated diplomacy with North Korea, they’ve also suggested that any direct talks would require unilateral North Korean disarmament as a precondition.
It is not surprising that N korea thinks they might be invaded by the USA if they left their defense down . The USA did attack Yugoslavia , Iraq ,Libya and Syria . We do have Russia almost surrounded with military forces . So that it is only logical reason that N Korea and Russia might be forced to think the way they do . No doubt the United States would help set up a U.S. friendly government for them too if they were not so well armed .
Very true. Also, neither Russia or China could be counted upon not to follow their geopolitical best interests or making a mistake thereof; by going nuclear Little Kim by default includes himself at the Eurasian security table whether they like it or not.
Its pretty obvious the U.S.D.S. screwed up during the Clinton era. It seems they thought a nuclear NK would be a guaranteed green light to finish the NK regime militarily. Why else would the CIA have turned a blind eye to A.Q. Khan’s Pakistani nuke tech migrating to NK or set up light water reactors in NK?
Except, now Russia and China can’t screw NK; NK has nukes. The U.S. is half an hour away from an ICBM strike; Vladivostok and Beijing itself are mere minutes away.
The Russians seem to have seen what was coming and convinced the NKs to develop EMP nukes instead, once the NKs had fission. Its now recognized that the NK nuke threat is primarily EMP in nature.
NKs relatively low-yield EMP bombs are the closest thing to the oxymoron of environmentally friendly nukes.
North Korea needs absolute security guarantee from Russia, China, or both
including law binding them to defend DPRK in event of war. The chance that China or Russia would honor such agreements is greater than the possibility of DPRK ever being able to defend itself against the MIC.
North Korea has both, guaranteed by geography and geopolitical reality, stronger than any law. Neither Russia or China can afford U.S. radars and THAAD systems embedded in North Korea’s mountains. It could shut down East Eurasian self-defense.
As is, the NATO beachhead on the Korean lowlands is at a severe disadvantage and easily removed in conventional war. Having all of Korea or even just North Korea would present an irresistible temptation for, if not a U.S./NATO first strike, then elevated dark ops in that region inevitably leading to war.
Arguably the world, not just North Korea, needs the U.S. out of Korea, but that’s not happening. Apart from losing face, the U.S.D.S. still thinks it can win by outlasting or somehow outfoxing the stalemate as is.
“North Korea has both, guaranteed by geography and geopolitical reality, stronger than any law” – wrong, they have absolutely nothing yet and could be CHAMP’d any time. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/jul/10/north-korea-threat-can-be-neutralized-with-high-po/
I was talking about political reality, not technological reality. NK can rely on China and Russia for tech insofar as they won’t let the U.S. occupy NK or set a path for such occupation. They will fight the hi-tech war for NK because they have to.
North Korea surely understands the microwave jamming threat. Those earlier test missiles that blew up on launchpads were attributed to hacking of NK systems by the Western MSM, but ECM could never be ruled out by armchair war nerds. However, not all delivery systems involve missiles with sensitive electronics.
Neither China or Russia could respond even with microwaves to a surprise NK attack in any case. NK doesn’t have to win, just be able to inflict a whole lot of damage; detonating an EMP bomb high enough over itself would do a number on region-wide Chinese-Russian electronic infrastructure just like the U.S.. Then the U.S. could step in to ‘stabilize’ the region before Russia and China recover.
Its just not worth it to the Eurasians; try to defeat North Korea – and then what? They might be left too messed up to prevent a U.S. takeover of the entire peninsula. Why even take the risk in the first place against a country that is not their enemy? I’ve read the various scenarios where China takes out NK; Not. Going. To. Happen. Its all Western hype, even if some Chinese dailies carry the story. Militarily, its inviting if not suicide then severe geopolitical setback.
Bringing us back to North Korea’s geopolitical guarantees. They already have the 1961 Mutual Aid and Cooperation Treaty with China, and are China’s only such obligation by treaty. Its renewed every 20 years and comes up again for renewal in 2021. Much of Trumps efforts today are but groundwork for convincing China not to renew the treaty in 2021.
Treaty or no, neither China nor Russia want the U.S. military securely on their doorstep. All Little Kim has to say behind closed doors is he’s got their back, and they’ve got his. Or at the very least they’ll be glad to avenge him.
Trump will eventually exact all the non-military concessions that can be made against NK, but if the U.S. tries to take out NK, then its the U.S. that’s potentially left too weak to prevent a Chinese intervention. Old fashioned artillery and bullets are immue to ECM. A 1950 Yalu River crossing redux only backed by Russia and its own nuclear arsenal. Only the threat of nuclear war prevented a second Chinese surge.
Ironically if the U.S. had signed a peace treaty decades ago North Korea would likely only be a colour revolution problem today, not a nuclear-armed, nuclear-allied make-or-break challenge to U.S. Far East hegemony.
That dawg won’t hunt, Scooter.
I’m not holding my breath, as the US desperately wants war, and will not be deterred by efforts to avoid it.
Can’t the “US diplomats” even see the stupidity and unreality of their demands? For 64 years North Korea has awaited a peace treaty which the USA has never made. Threats and exercises ever since, with US “allies”,South Korea and Japan, both of which not exactly free of US pressure, have made the North extremely worried, and who would not be? As a minimum, DPRK wants a peace treaty and real absence of threats by the USA to strike it-hardly unreasonable, but the USA wants them to give up any hope and just accept destruction, as other commenters have written.
North Korea ain’t giving up no damn nukes. That would be insane in the face of US worldwide aggression and war crimes.
Unilateral North Korean disarmament as a precondition! What a crappy expectations!
What a idiotic / ignorant expectations! Why would North Korea do such a thing?
If USA have any pieceful negotiation they would newer talk like that.
Take it or leave it,like Pakistani North is Nuclear power,deal with it.
Vurun, “disarmament as precondition” makes as much sense as insisting that your poker partners empty their wallets to you before any cards are dealt. One thing that we have learned from our alliance with Israel is how to reasonably expect unreasonable results.
If the US had not undermined the NNPT by pretending that Israel didn’t have a nuclear weapons program, they might have been able to prevent the DPRK from developing nuclear weapons. China in particular could exert enormous pressure to prevent development but, since the DPRK’s weapons don’t threaten China, why bother? Using the NNPT as a political tool to employed when it serves US interests (Iran) and ignoring it when it does not, encourages others to do the same. You reap what you sow…..
The US violated the NPT by introducing tactical nukes into SKorea in the 80s. That was a direct nuclear threat on a non-nuclear country.