On a visit to Ukraine today, Defense Secretary James Mattis played up the narrative that the ongoing fighting in Eastern Ukraine was wholly Russia’s fault, vowing that the US “stands with Ukraine” against the Russians, and confirming active considerations are ongoing to providing lethal military aid to them.
Ukraine’s President Poroshenko claimed 3,000 Russian troops are in Ukrainian territory, a claim which appears to be built around the assumption that Crimea, which seceded from Ukraine and joined the Russian Federation, is still technically Ukrainian.
Still Mattis appeared to accept the number unquestioningly, accusing Russia of trying to “redraw” the map of Europe by military force, and vowing that the US would stand against them. Though he stopped short of promising arms to Ukraine, he gave the impression they were probably coming.
The Trump Administration has been keen on arming Ukraine in recent months on the grounds that it would be politically advantageous to do something anti-Russia. At the same time, the Eastern Ukraine war is in a state of ceasefire, with limited violations on both sides, and a huge influx of US arms could be seen as deliberately trying to undermine the ceasefire, and encourage an aggressive war against East Ukraine’s ethnic Russian rebels.
Yeah, keep considering, just don’t do it.
“Considering” is itself harmful to prospects for peace. However, doing it would be worse.
They just keep poking the bear. It’s insane.
Arming a country which exports tanks? Why?
There is now a checklist of actions that Administrations have to take just to prove that they are ‘tough on Russia’ yet it still isn’t enough.
1. Add a new NATO member – check.
2. Add new sanctions – check.
3. Escalate war in Ukraine – pending.
This is the big danger of democrats railing about Trump’s Russia connections, whether or not they exist. Even if it does become a big enough scandal to kick him from office somehow, at what price?
This deal is relatively innocuous, what really matters is how far the U.S. will allow or instruct Ukraine’s reclamation/invasion of Luhansk and Donetsk. Crimea is a non-starter, and they know it. Eastern Ukraine d.b.a Malorussia/Novorussiya will play Pomerania and Silesia for WW3;
Donbass will happily play Danzig. Bring it on, Porky.
Ukraine has plenty of anti-tank weapons. It exports them. It also does not have a real problem with hostile tanks, since the fighting is by artillery and sniper fire. There have been no tank battles, other than infantry support operations for which they are well armed.
Why does the Trump Admin talk about this? Two reasons:
First, it is “tough.”
Second, it “proves” that they are not puppets of Russia. “See, we send missiles to shoot at Russians.”
It makes no sense as a strategic move between the US and Russia. It makes plenty of domestic political sense. That is no place for war and peace to be decided, but there it is.
The one outcome certain is that the Ukraine situation will be made worse for the US and Ukraine by putting American domestic political games ahead of genuine strategic calculation.
Waiting for members of congress to come out against this. All 2 of them.
lets hope Russia doesn’t consider arming the Taliban. Might as well we have already (sans evidence) accused them of it.