During an interview at the Defense One conference, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Martin Dempsey estimated that the US war against ISIS in Iraq and Syria will last “up to four years.”
What he’s basing that on is totally unclear, as the Obama Administration continues to escalate the war, and the scope and goals of the conflict at this point remain totally unclear, and growing all the time.
Gen. Dempsey himself has been recently pushing for major increases in the role of US ground troops in the war, suggesting it was time to start considering using them in offensive operations, particularly the retaking of Mosul.
Which is itself not even being attempted yet. The Pentagon is envisioning starting the counter-offensive against ISIS in a big way in Iraq in later 2015, and hasn’t begun the 12+ month process of trying to create a fighting force for inside Syria, which means that won’t begin in earnest until early 2016 at best.
The 4 year timetable, then, even assuming the war goals don’t grow any further (and they already include not only destroying ISIS but imposing regime change in Syria with an as-yet non-existent rebel faction), seems preposterously optimistic, and beyond even the best cases for the Pentagon.
Former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta last month predicted a 30-year war against ISIS, which similarly isn’t based on any actual analysis of the unclear goals and scope of the conflict, but at the very least doesn’t seem to be over optimistic.
The merger of war and entertainment.
If the pilot runs for four years then a full season will follow.
The MIC is already looking forward to the residuals.
What wonderful generals the American people have. First, through their deep studies into the war scenario, they came up with a 30 war. However, their people did not like that scenario at all, they rejected it. Now their generals have regrouped and come up with a 4 year war, which should be acceptable to the people. Hey, the American people should be proud of their military leaders, because they can design and package wars just like ordering a pizza (plain pizza or with desirable amounts of ingredients), yummy, yummy, yummy. It´s no wonder the US has “almost” won their numerous wars since WW-II.
This is nothing but subterfuge from the USG/Zionist scum in control of this country.
The fiasco in Afghanistan and Iraq have dragged on for nearly 14 years and cost the
USG taxpayers trillions of dollars; not to mention the destruction, human suffering
and bloodshed.
Hagel, the scum that he is, boasted perpetual war and Regime Change is the agenda
for (their) New World Order. Another (sick) wet dream from a deranged individual
It sounds like the four years came from the Presidential term. Obama will ramp it up for the next two years, and that would take at least two years for the next President to run it back down again. Pure politics, not generalship.
Except that any/all of the "front runners" for the next Presidential election are fully invested in maintaining and expanding war, not "backing it down."
As for Dempsey, he's got 40 years of service so I suspect that his retirement is imminent. So, any war that he starts on his watch – 4 years or 30 years – will be left for someone else to manage while he goes off to join the MIC ex-General Officer gravy train.
Just nothing like old men/women starting something the young must finish.
I agree that if we get in, we won't get out in four years. That would be a minimum, and it won't happen that way, for exactly the reasons you say.
The question I saw was where this guy got the four year number. My suggestion is that it has nothing whatever to do with anything that might happen on the ground. I think this is important, because it means this general is telling us a political lie, not a military truth. What he said has nothing to do with military judgment or reality, just the politics of the length of a presidential term.
political lie… yes, because pretty much since the end of WWII, the top military command structure has been more political than military when it comes to advice and judgement. They usually stay far away from military truths (ask Shinseki what happens when you don't politicize advice.)
I understand what you're saying regarding the time frame. My opinion as to where he got 4 years from (not to discount that dark cave on his backside where he usually keeps his head) is that it is his opinion (guess) as to how low he could go to make it palatable to the common, ignorant, talking-head opinion, headline-driven American stooge.
In nuclear fusion the standard projection has always been that useful nuclear fusion could be possible in 30 years time. This is code. '30 years' means beyond the horizon. It means far enough that the future is completely open and anything can happen. In politics the event horizon is 4 years apparently.
did he forget a zero or two?40 or400?
Win or loose — Empire USA calls the shots
Now just a minute there General, don’t forget that the CIA controls both the Iraq government and the Islamic State. For this is news that the CIA should be leaking to the corporate mainstream media, you know how that goes.
It's sad that the only thing left to shake the decayed Western elites out of their hallucinations is a huge Russian-built nuclear tipped ICBM laying their cities to waste.
Here's a little hint: Try bombing ISIS to KILL them, not to CONTAIN them in failed or semi-failed states as a convenient excuse to send in the troops.
Military men never tell the truth. They are the quintessential "politicians" who have long successful careers only if they can perfect the art of telling their superiors what they want to hear. Thus liars rise and truth-tellers are weeded out. ("Well, duh!")
If a general is ordered to conduct a war (and win it, obviously), he will never say, "I'm sorry Mr. President, this war cannot be won, and most definitely not with the resources you've allocated." If he said that, his career would be over — Shinseki –and he would be replaced with a more ambitious and less reality-constrained general who would say, "Yes, sir. Right away, sir. Slam dunk, sir."
The hierarchical and totalitarian structure of any military guarantees that at every level subordinates tell their superiors "what they want to hear", rather than what they need to know. Consequently, the military is hobbled by a culture of self-congratulation and comprehensive disregard for the truth. Sun Tsu would not approve. All militaries attempt to compensate for this crippling reality-disconnect with more resources and "overwhelming firepower". Guns, flags, fruit-salad-bedecked dress uniforms, and hero worship is a big ego stroker, but does not impress a committed adversary, particularly on the battlefield, as demonstrated by the Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan failures. The American military fails in imperial wars of conquest against committed indigenous resistance, primarily because "shock and awe" doesn't work, and the follow on "nation building" is really just another euphemism for surrender to a foreign dictatorship.
Reality, what a concept!
Does he make his predications using a crystal ball or reading the cards because for the past twenty or thirty years no “great general” has predicated anything correctly.