The on-again, off-again Ukrainian military offensive against eastern Ukraine threatens to drag both the United States and Russia into open warfare with one another, and the combatants on both sides seem determined to have that happen as soon as possible.
The self-proclaimed mayor of Slovyansk is pressing Russian President Vladimir Putin to invade immediately to save his town from western fascists, and others in the eastern protest movement have seen a Russian invasion as their ticket to a referendum on autonomy, or possibly outright secession.
Ukraine’s interim government is playing that game too, with Interim Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk pressing the US for “real support” on the military front to save the nation from Russia.
Yatsenyuk suggested Russia would annex its eastern provinces without a massive build-up and modernization of Ukraine’s military, and that Putin would restore the Soviet Union before America knows it if they don’t get involved in his government’s internal fight.
The idea in creating such situation in Ukraine were not planed nor orchestrated by Russian secret service, but rather it was and still orchestrated by US and EU secret services and those who are looking for Third World War, or at least giving Russia a warning that they might just do that. In terms of international economical matters involved in all of these wars, Russia have a healthy economic partner, China, US also have a economic partner which is unhealthy and is EU, actually US and EU economy combined are very unhealthy and they can not see a partnership between Russia, China, India, South America and Africa which such unity are the main reason for every war conducted by USG and NATO since the Balkan war. The new fascism in Ukraine are the entity of CIA, German secret services so the Swedish, Danish and every other elites from bankers to European kings and regimes establishments of vulture capitalism which are looking forward for Third World War. The European austerity toward European nations from Sweden to England to… Is saving money for kings and bankers by starving their people for after such war, if that happens, nonetheless the idea is there and austerity-wars is their way of showing their intentions.
The one lesson that applies from the beginnings of WW1 to this situation is that its dangerous for powerful nations to have weaker allies.
The problem is that they tend to want to drag the bigger allies into their war. In WW1, that's how Austria v Serbia turned into Austria +Germany v Serbia + Russia +France + UK.
Its like little brothers bragging their big brother will come beat someone. Little brothers can be very brave when they are sure its big brother that will end up doing the fighting.
Before WW1 there were three Balkan Wars and an Italo-Turkic War before finally one of those combatants set off the big one, and all the others joined in.
It is not so much that one little war will set off a big one, but that little war after little war will eventually set off a big one. That is what our neocons are doing, setting off little war after little war, utterly disregarding the dangers of playing with matches in a powder magazine.
"…massive build-up and modernization of Ukraine’s military…" paid for by the US taxpayers, of course. This is what happens when a faction within a country takes over the government and finds out that large portions of the people do not agree with your plans. And when large portions of the military and police decide that they'd rather be on the "other side" – well, the realization that the scheisse is actually deeper than you thought happens. What to do? Find some suckers with deep pockets (or a well-used credit card) and a psychosis over someone or some perceived misrepresentation of reality and have THEM pay to bail you out. Lies are a prerequisite, of course.
Well said; curmudgeonvt; I could not have expressed it better.
I agree with the quest in different words I won't say starving the people for the Kings and Bankers . I will say the international socialist are just socialist enough to gain and keep power . And the power is what they want not the socialism . The Truth of the matter is the international corporations that were birthed in the highly developed countries wish to develop the raw natural resources from the less developed countries , with or without their permission . Low cost natural resources is a very important component of a high class standard of living . The international community which is basicaly Europe and the United States or NATO is about to smash head first into a much larger international community that might be called the real world .
"Yats is the guy" Victoria Nuland, on the US State Dept. choice for PM.
Yatsenyuk is simply repeating what his US masters have told him to say. The neocons have lamented the loss of Russia as an adversary since the Soviet Union collapsed. They are anxious to revive the Cold war, and the mighty profit streams that flow from it.
If this were a video game I would make Putin's next move to create a Ukraine government in exile headed up by elected president Viktor Yanukovych. It could then pass laws sanctioning the "coup" government in Kiev.
Anyone have more moves for either side?
nice… I wonder, since the US has a track record of backing "governments in exile" how they would handle that. Since the US actively worked to usurp power from the duly elected government under Yanukovych I suspect they would have no problem claiming that Yanukovych abdicated by running for his life from the weapons-weilding Nazis and was therefore not eligible to be called a government. And then they'd blame Putin for the attempt to put his own lackey in place of the beloved Yats and his Nazi henchmen.
Depends.
I would have Putin play the DeGaulle/Sikorski card based on the "fleeing from Nazis" context and demand that the government in exile be seated at the next Geneva negotiations.
Perfectly right. Neither side has anything left to lose and it would appear that the pro-Russian faction in Donetsk province (56% ethnic Ukrainian) don't beleive that they will win the 25 May election. Obama can sit back and bide his time while the trap in the Baltic is baited but Putin has painted himself into a corner. His only choice is which foot to shoot himself in.
It's curious to see how uninterested the locals are in this fight. The coup government in Kiev issued a call for volunteers, and got nothing but crickets. Nobody volunteered. Then there's the other side, which calls a rally in Donetsk and gets so few people that the Toronto Globe and Mail was able to interview every last person who was at the rally to get their opinions.
There's millions of people living there, East and West, who are just trying to go about their lives.
The Ukrainians don't want to fight about this. The only people who really are going to fight about it don't seem to live there.
At least Russia has some very legitimate interests in the Ukraine, at least as much as England does with Scotland. What business does America have there? About as much as Mexico does. But Mexico minds its own business and America does not.
I doubt that Putin would support Yanukovich, he has already opined that Yanukovich's political career is finished, he is not a strong figure and not even popular with his previous supporters because of it. Yanukovich's weakness under pressure provided the opportunity for the putsch in the first place.
My guess is that the Russian government have already decided against intervention at this stage and will only move if there is a clear cut case for doing so. Crimea was almost unanimous in wanting Russian Federation membership and was therefore safe to support. Crimea is not a huge economic liability and has compensations since the Russians no longer have to fork out for the lease of the Sevastapol base. The eastern and southern regions are much more of a mixed bag with respect to loyalties, there are a lot more people there to integrate and the economic burden is potentially much greater. I reckon that the Russians would prefer to see Ukraine as a federalised state or perhaps partitioned into two separate independent states (perhaps approximately along the line of the Dneipr river)
Russia was paying Ukraine a lot of money, plus gas discount for hosting its fleet in Sevastopol. Ever since the Soviet Union fell apart, and drunken Eltsyn with the help of ex-ambassador Michael McFaul signed papers of dissolution of the USSR, the Crimean question was a sticking point. According to the witnesses the gang of three (Russia, Ukraine and Belorussia) wee drinking the entire day while deciding to dissolve the USSR (In violation of the USSR Constitution!) Anyway, Kravchuk, the Ukrainian leader, asked Eltsyn about Crimea, knowing that it has been the Russian territory for hundreds years. The drunken sod Eltsyn looked at him, waved his hand and said, "Keep it". The repercussions of that clandestine meeting are still painful and not remedied. In a way Putin sees himself as the one to restore at least a small part of the huge territories Russia lost as a result of that traitorous coup. If there would be a commission, referendum, and redesigning of the borders according to the pre-revolutionary maps, things would be at least a bit less painful. Communists believed in the world brotherhood and freely redesigned the borders. I was born in Northern Kazakhstan that historically was settled by the Siberian regiment Cossacks. The settlement was 95% Russian before. Now it is totally Kazakhs populated, but, at least, so far Russians are not forced to learn Kazakhs language. But in Georgia, where I had a condo, after the USSR was dissolved Russians were hunted down and threatened. Many escaped with just the clothes on their backs. Same happened in many other regions, too. When Putin says that the fall of the USSR was a tragedy, it is not the political system that he has in mind, but millions of human tragedies and sufferings..