The United States and other NATO member nations have repeatedly demand unquestioning respect for the Ukraine’s “territorial integrity,” spurning the idea of the country splitting up. Yet direct NATO intervention to impose this position seems unlikely.
After Western-backed protesters took over the nation, the Crimea’s ethnic Russian majority has been pushing for secession and a possible return to Russian control. Crimea’s parliament has backed a referendum, and pro-secessionist forces have taken much of the provincial capital.
Western officials are treating this as Russia’s fault, and are likewise treating a Russian promise to “respect the sovereignty of Ukraine” as the end to the Crimean secession movement. Yet indications on the ground suggest it is not.
Barring a surprise invasion for some nation or other, that leaves the matter of crushing the secessionist movement to the Ukraine “interim government,” which doesn’t seem to have much support in Crimea beyond the ethnic Tatar minority.
Rather than a problem of external interference, the Ukraine-Crimea split reflects a very real internal fracture in Ukrainian politics, and before the takeover the secessionist movement was centered in Lviv, where pro-Western demonstrators were hoping to split off historical Halych-Volyn as a separate nation. No matter which side is in power, a significant portion of the Ukraine is inconsolable, and ready to split the nation.
America supported the carving up of Serbia, so how can it oppose that of Ukraine.
"No matter which side is in power, a significant portion of the Ukraine is inconsolable, and ready to split the nation."
The best definition of Ukraine. As Ukraine as practically demolished its armed forces, the standard practice for all those aspiring into NATO partnership for peace — it does not have the capacity to play major role. And the leadership consists of various regions, another reason I do not think they will have any success. There is a temptation by the violent leadership now in the government (three members of nationalist/nazi party, and two others from very extreme Nazi groups), to be reckless. But they cannot keep Kyev in order, as the violence against citizens, government offices, hotels, churches goes on, and is growing.
Seems like there is a very easy natural boundary to be found in the Ukraine. The Dnieper River. It's not rocket science and seems to follow the split between the two types of Christianity in the "Old Ukraine". Just a thought.
Sevastopol is commonly referred to as the "base of the Russian Black Sea Fleet". The truth is that Sevastopol is the home base of the Russian "Mediterranean Fleet" which also happens to have a port in Syria.
War may well break out if NATO (Turkey) tries to prevent that fleet to enter or leave the Mediterranean by closing the Bosporus in retaliation.
The flash point is not on the Crimea but at the Bosporus.