Syrian Islamist Rebels Seize Aleppo, Army Vows Counterattack

HTS rebels reportedly advancing south toward Hama

After several days of blisteringly fast gain, the Syrian Islamist rebel force led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has forced Syrian Army forces to withdraw and has taken the major northern city of Aleppo. There has been video footage of rebel forces outside the police HQ in central Aleppo, as well as near the historic Aleppo Citadel, which is a UNESCO World Heritage site.

The offensive began late Wednesday, with HTS fighters pushing out of Idlib Province and into the Aleppo Province countryside. There was intense fighting both Thursday and Friday, with the HTS, backed by the Turkish-backed rebel factions, capturing scores of towns and villages, By late Friday they arrived at the outskirts of Aleppo, and they pushed into the city itself Saturday. Many hundreds of people have been killed, though exact figures are not available, and may not be for some time.

Russian and Syrian forces also launched airstrikes against targets in and around Aleppo. The reports are that at least 20 fighters along with 16 civilians have been killed.

The Syrian Army is talking about launching a counteroffensive to retake Aleppo, and reinforcements are said to be en route to the area. Both main highways leading to Aleppo have been blocked, however, so the trek into the area is likely to be difficult.

HTS and associated fighters appear to be in almost all neighborhoods of Aleppo now. They have taken the airport, and Kurdish YPG fighters are preparing to try to defend the Kurdish neighborhood of the city. Thousands of ethnic Kurds have reportedly fled east into Kurdish-controlled Syria in anticipation of the fight.

The fall of Aleppo is hugely significant, not just because of its size. The rebels had a history holding it in earlier parts of the Syrian Civil War, and the Syrian Army’s capture of the city in December 2016 was seen as a major turning point. The civil war never really ended though, and now the city seems to once again be in play for the rebels.

But fighting in Aleppo is unlikely to be the end of the offensive. Already it’s being reported that some of the rebel fighters are moving south from the Aleppo Province toward the city of Hama. Hama would be the second major city in the path of the offensive, and if it fell, that would open up pushes toward Homs and even the capital of Damascus.

Though the Syrian Army has vowed to reverse the course after recent losses, they have issued a statement trying to blame Israel for the HTS push. The statement insisted the Army was effectively “fighting the military arm of the Israeli enemy, falsely labeled as the ‘Syrian revolution.’” They added that HTS was backed by “thousands of foreign militants” and had heavy weapons and drones. They reportedly got the drones from Ukraine. The statement concluded with the declaration “you are either with the Syrian Arab Army or with Israel.”

The Syrian Army isn’t the only one pointing the finger at Israel. Syrian Foreign Minister Bassam Sabbagh said on Friday that the HTS offensive served the interest of Israeli occupation forces. He mentioned an “obvious connection” between recent Israeli strikes on Syria and the rebel push.

He’s not the only one making that connection. Former US Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford pointed to recent Israeli airstrikes on Syria as well as the air war against Hezbollah, as providing HTS an “opportunity to advance.”

Other than Israel, the Kurdish YPG is pointing the finger at Turkey, saying they were behind the HTS offensive. Indeed, Turkish-backed rebels have participated heavily in the offensive on multiple fronts.

HTS formed in early 2017 as a merger of several Islamist militant groups, centering initially around fighting Jabhat al-Nusra but ultimately merging with them as well. Jabhat al-Nusra was effectively the Syrian wing of al-Qaeda, though they broke with them publicly in 2016. Despite that, HTS maintains much of the underlying rhetoric of al-Qaeda.

Publicly, HTS and their leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani has tried to disavow al-Qaeda and ISIS and has courted favor with the US. He has styled the civilian body in HTS-dominated Idlib the Syrian Salvation Government. It has long been suspected that this rebranding was more about trying to turn Syrian Sunni Islamist factions into a more palatable partner for Western involvement in the region than any major ideological differences with the international jihadists.

It has had some success in that regard. In 2018, the Trump Administration acknowledged publicly that they were no longer directly targeting Julani. Though HTS-affiliated forces have shot at US troops in Syria from time to time, so it’s not correct to call them allies, as such, it is fair to say they have common interests in regime change.

The West has a history of backing some of the more local Sunni Islamist groups in the Syrian Civil War. Indeed, the HTS ties with Ukraine’s government underscores that many see them as a practical partner in their respective regional wars. This is doubtless a growing concern for Syria’s government, which had settled into a more or less stable territorial position in recent years. 

Author: Jason Ditz

Jason Ditz is Senior Editor for Antiwar.com. He has 20 years of experience in foreign policy research and his work has appeared in The American Conservative, Responsible Statecraft, Forbes, Toronto Star, Minneapolis Star-Tribune, Providence Journal, Washington Times, and the Detroit Free Press.