The top-ranking American military official and the civilian head of the North Atlantic alliance believe the war in Ukraine will continue for years if Kyiv is to achieve its military goals. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has signed a decree outlawing talks with Russia and plans to restore Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders.
In an interview published Sunday by German outlet Funke Media Group, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said the alliance must prepare for a long war. “Most wars last longer than expected when they first begin. Therefore, we must prepare ourselves for a long war in Ukraine.” He continued, “We must recognize that if Zelensky and the Ukrainians stop fighting, their country will no longer exist. If President Putin and Russia stop fighting, we will have peace.”
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Mark Milley spoke with CNN about his outlook on the war. “There’s well over 200,000 Russian troops in Russian-occupied Ukraine. This offensive, although significant, has operational and tactical objectives that are limited, in the sense that they do not — even if they are fully achieved — they don’t completely kick out all the Russians, which is the broader strategic objective that President Zelensky had,” the general said. “That’s going to take a long time to do that. That’s going to be very significant effort over a considerable amount of time.”
“I can tell you that it’ll take a considerable length of time to militarily eject all 200,000 or plus Russian troops out of Russian-occupied Ukraine. That’s a very high bar. It’s going to take a long time to do it,” he added.
The assessments come as Kyiv’s war machine has stalled. Last year, Ukraine’s military was able to recapture a significant portion of the Kharkov region. However, Kyiv’s summer offensive has failed to meet its objectives, and Ukraine has sustained substantial losses of troops and equipment.
The primary goal of the offensive was to capture Melitopo and sever the Russian territory in southern Ukraine. So far, Ukrainian forces have only advanced a few kilometers in that direction. Milley recently predicted Kyiv would only have about a month before weather conditions would cause the offensive to end.
Zelensky’s overall goal is far more ambitious: to retake Crimea, the Donbas, and southern Ukraine. Kyiv has said it will not compromise on the issue, and the Ukrainian president issued a decree preventing talks with Russia so long as Vladimir Putin remains president.
It is unclear how long Kyiv and its Western backers can continue to fight a war of attrition against Russia. American defense officials have warned that arms transfers to Ukraine have depleted US arms stockpiles.
One concern is a lack of artillery for Kyiv. In July, President Joe Biden decided to send cluster bombs to Ukraine because America had reached its minimum stock of 155mm shells. The transfer of cluster bombs likely violates US laws, and the bomblets spread by the munitions are notorious for killing civilians for decades after the war ends.
Currently, US arms manufacturers produce around 28,000 155mm shells each month – well below the number Ukrainian forces typically fire. While the Pentagon’s deputy chief for acquisition, Bill LaPlante, said US weapons firms hope to turn out over 1 million rounds per year by 2025, that would still fall far short of Russia’s current output: an estimated 2 million annually.
The US has pledged over $43 billion in military aid to Ukraine, including over 1.5 million 155mm rounds. Still, Ukrainian officials say Kyiv requires significantly more aid to achieve its war goals. On Sunday, the head of Ukraine’s Security Council, Oleksiy Danilov, published an op-ed outlining how Kyiv would win the war.
“I am deeply convinced that there is only one effective solution to this problem: de-occupation of Ukrainian lands by military means. Russia and its ruling clique don’t understand any other language than the language of force and weapons. Therefore, the peace formula is the weapons formula.” He wrote, “The sooner Ukraine receives enough modern weapons, the sooner we will return to peace, which will be safer for Europe and the world. The practice of dosing military assistance to Ukraine due to fear of irritating Putin and provoking Russia to further escalation is fundamentally flawed. Refusing or delaying the transfer of modern weapons to the Ukrainian armed forces is a direct encouragement to the Kremlin to continue the war, not the other way around.”
Zelensky is expected to travel to Washington later this week to lobby Congress to approve a $24 billion aid package for Kyiv proposed by the White House. It’s likely the Ukrainian leader will also meet with Biden.
The war also has the potential to spiral into a conflict between nuclear powers. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov says the US is already at war with Russia. On Sunday at the Eastern Economic Forum, the Russian diplomat explained Moscow’s position. “No matter what it says, it [the US] controls this war, it supplies weapons, munition, intelligence information, data from satellites, it is pursuing a war against us,” Lavrov said.
The stalled Ukrainian counteroffensive has led Kyiv to step up strikes inside Russia. Over the weekend, Ukraine launched a series of drone attacks on Crimea and Moscow. The Kremlin slammed Kyiv for launching terrorist attacks. Moscow claims its air defenses thwarted the attack.
Kyiv’s strikes on Russia are likely to increase as Secretary of State Antony Blinken gave Ukraine a green light last week. When Washington’s top diplomat was asked if he approved of Ukraine using American weapons to hit targets deep inside Russian territory, he responded by stating “In terms of their targeting decisions, it’s their decision, not ours.”
Kyle Anzalone is the opinion editor of Antiwar.com, news editor of the Libertarian Institute, and co-host of Conflicts of Interest.
“Ukraine’s goals” – Kiev regime is a pawn in Big Game.
Everyone with a brain knows that except the brainless Ukrainians .
Russias obstinance will lead to a very long war. This looks like it goes until one side collapses. On the Russian side, I presume they are hoping for political change in the US which is 50/50 in another year. On the Ukrainian side they want their land back and are slowly getting their wish. So both sides have hope for the future at the moment. It is going to grind on.
The reality is there was no need for this war the yanks did everything they could to avoid a peaceful out come with help from their British LACKEYS , JFK didn`t want Russian missiles pointing at America so why should Putin have US nukes pointing at Russia ? , which was the purpose of getting Ukraine into NATO ,
We both have nukes pointing at each other, I agree that expansion of the EU and NATO eastward wasn’t a great idea. It is the American habit of spiking the football. Still this level of naked aggression from Russia is going to have to cost them.
“On the Ukrainian side they want their land back and are slowly getting their wish.”
Only if by “slowly” you mean “imperceptibly.”
Of course, they have “liberated” Robotyne 13 times in the past three months. I’m sure all 48 of its former residents are relieved.
Seriously, this is spectacularly stupid. Every day, in every way, the likely outcome for Ukraine is worsening, while its troops are being slaughtered and the country wrecked. The continuing refusal to negotiate is suicidal — and insane.
Amazing that Stoltenberg can repeat this Bidensky lie so easily. Russia repeatedly asked for negotiations, and the Ukies refused. But right in the beginning they got the Ukies to agree to the outline of an agreement, in the negotiations in Turkey. The Ukies would finally, after seven years of killing 14,000 civilians in Donbass and making more than 100,000 homeless, stop the slaughter. They’d finally follow the Minsk II agreement that their Poroshenko signed in 2015. They’d even get to keep the part of western Donbass that they occupied.
So “their country will no longer exist”? Stoltenberg is lying.
Then Boris Johnson flew in to Kiev with Biden’s message: Biden would refuse to let the U.S. stand as a guarantor of the peace, and Britain would also refuse. But if Zelensky fought on he’d get to be the “war president” he’d dreamed of being before the next election, with all the free weapons and money from Western taxpayers he could dream of, with no oversight. A bonanza for the ultra-corrupt Ukraine.
Before this Russia had refused Donbass’ request to join Russia, as they wanted peace. They had to intervene when Zelensky massively ramped up the shelling of Donbass in the fall 2021, as confirmed by UN observers. From shelling about 20 times a day to 100 times a day, and in February 2022 close to 2,000 times a day, preparing for an invasion. The Azov Battalion who handled the artillery would finally get their slaughter of civilians, and millions would have to flee to Russia.
Russia intervened in accordance with the UN rules for an emergency intervention, which they also pointed out, but which all the Biden-loyal media ignored. They repeatedly asked for peace after that. But Biden has made this the socialist West’s war against a conservative major country, one that has banned homo propaganda, one that opposes feminist lies, one where Putin has condemned the mass immigration that he correctly says is destroying Europe. This mass immigration is what all social democrat parties now rely on to win elections, as the majority of Whites have turned against them. So Putin must be removed from power by a “color revolution” that turns Russia obedient. The hatred of conservative Russia is extreme in socialist parties all over the West. Their tabloids are repeatedly comparing Putin to Hitler.
+++ Good to remind people there is such a thing as history, not to mention reality 😉
America’s forte is more hagiography than history.
The U.S.A. has never seen a forever war it didn’t like.
Stoltenburg is a US LACKEY just like the rest of NATO not to mention Australia . Japan , S.K Sweden ect ect ect
Stoltenberg is the archetypal embodiment of the Peter Principle.
Too bad their GOALS would lead to a long war, because their ability for a long war are seriously in doubt after their latest “counter offensive.” FIASCO!!!
The fact is Ukraine dosen`t have the infantry all their best soldiers are dead or disabled , then you have Pence saying US Soldiers will need to get involved so watch out for a US false flag event so they can go in mob handed however the US Military may bulk at this idea as we all know US Soldiers won`t fight unless they have air superiority they don`t like it when the shit is coming at them .
Pence is a war monger who tries to pass himself off as a devout Christian. He definitely does not follow the Prince of Peace. His schtick is getting tiresome.
“The goal is an endless war, not a successful war” –Wikileaks founder Julian Assange. Not as smart and rich as the rest of the west’s “journalists” who are diligently following CIA talking points, but he nailed it again 150%. (Sarcasm)
The goal is enhancement of Biden’s image as supreme leader as he fades into his self-inflicted obscurity.
Obscurity is the best he can hope for but unlikely to get.. The man who lost Afghanistan and Ukraine will be long remembered and disparaged!
We must recognize that Mexico without Texas is no longer a nation.
Like Nam, US will have to place rules and restrictions on Ukraine to make this a long lasting, yet a bloody war, so the pigs in DC can make lots of money. Like pharma companies thay treat the patient so they stay alive but never find a cure so they no longer need your medicine.
Don’t see Russia settling for a forever war, thinking they’ll keep 200,000 in the trenches and launch a major offensive with another large army by next spring at the latest, accept the heavy losses and the tremendous destruction this will cause all along the Black Sea coast. Thinking Biden will be like LBJ in 64-65 and commit American troops and we will all be one step inside the gates of hell.
American troops and we will all be one step inside the gates of hell.
The troop train to the front has long ago left the station.
“if Zelensky and the Ukrainians stop fighting, their country will no longer exist.” But that would be a good thing.
It won’t exist regardless.
“The top-ranking American military official…”
That would be Supreme Troop Leader of the Boy Scouts of America, right?
It’ll only seem long…
There’s nothing to be decided, it’s not up to us, so get out your checkbook to fund pointless death and destruction for years to come. Peace is great and you get it through war without limits, except only diplomacy is totally outlawed.
US officials quoted above imply Ukraine’s victory is eventually inevitable, yet even NY times and CNN coverage are starting to admit that the numbers and military reality might just not add up. Maybe Russia’s next lines of defense are much weaker. Maybe the west can start to produce close to as many shells as Russia many years from now, if the aggressive alliance remains perfectly unified behind this stupid debacle. Or maybe we’ll start directing our resources and focus towards building a better, sustainable world for all humanity.
How come they can never plan for a Long Peace?
Insufficiently profitable in comparison with long wars.
The Ukrainian spring offensive has turned into an analog of the WWI British attack on the Dardanelles.
One for Julio, of course he’ll say it’s Russian propaganda. https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/09/kiev-cracks-down-gangs-helping-ukrainian-men-dodge/
The desperate search for more bodies to throw into the meat grinder depicted in the link illustrates, in my mind, why this war cannot go on much longer. The only way to keep it going much longer is to bring in pawns from other countries.