The 2018 murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi is still a sore spot internationally, and efforts to end the legal proceedings by shifting the case to Saudi Arabia’s legal black hole remain a serious concern.
In October of 2018, Khashoggi disappeared into the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul. He was never seen again. Though the Turkish government was prepared to try Saudi officials in absentia for the killing, more recently the court has suspended the trial and will move it to Saudi Arabia and let them work it out.
The Saudis still deny anything untoward happened, and getting the trial moved there effectively ends it. The Turkish courts have rejected an appeal by Khashoggi’s fiancee to hold off on the transfer.
The Saudis have struggled with the narrative of the murder, and have remained very interested in burying the matter. Crown Province Mohammed bin Salman, seen as orchestrating the killing, doesn’t like to bring this matter up at all.
If a meeting with National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan was any indication, even broaching the subject is dangerous, as MBS was said to have ended up in a shouting tirade, warning Sullivan he will never discuss the matter again.
The Saudis are keen to bury the matter, to the point where not burying it is something to get mad about. The official stance is that the fate of Khashoggi should be immaterial to international ties.
As I said the fat boy courtier has served his purpose. Mr. Bone saw will forever be tarnished, although… he will not be maidenless.
So I wonder what happened after the shouting. Did the USA put a crimp in the weapons hose flowing towards Saudi? Suddenly Saudi is all about peace in Yemen. It would be pretty funny if pursuing justice in one matter created justice elsewhere as well.
Why is this one so complicated?
In June 2017 a court coup remived from power Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayaf, US hand picked to candidate who replaced abruptly a hapless Crown Prince Mukrin. Crown Prince Nayaf was former Minister of the Interior, a powerfull blend of FBI and Home Security like functions.
He was FBI and Scotland Yard trained, and to shorten his CV, he was heading Syria commitee, his security agencies were instrumental in consolidating a plethora of Islamic movements into Islamic Caliphate with Wahhabi establishment involvement.
Russian entrance to Syria ended any hopes of ISIS flag flying over Damascus, while taking over Summi parts of Iraq just was not feasible. Obama did nothing to sliw. ISIS. Occassionally killed some “leaders”, while ISIS trucks were selling oil over to Kurds in Turkey, while in turn they supplied weapons to “insurgents” in Syria.
Trump knew that ISIS project was doomed, and takeover of Syria over. He decided to take credit away from Russia, by focusing on ISIS in Raqqa region, esentially reserving territorry for Kurds in order to kerp chunk of Syria.
Following Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Nayaf future was precarious. US partnership turned out a calamity, with US destroying their joint enerprise. Saudis invested not just money, but sizeable intelligence community and Wahhabi establishment.
To make matters worse, Trump suggested blaming Qatar for sponsoring terrorism. Qatar being Iran’s alliy by the virtue of shared gas field and Turkish military base.
Trump sought to kill two birds with one stone; find a consolation for Saudis livid over US switch of policy and kicking Qatar for Iran’s tiies. The conditions placed on Qatar were draconian. Crown Prince was also very instrumental in starting the “reengineering” of Yemen with Saudis and US partnering in common goal — control of Bab Al-Mandeb.
But Saudis were at that point in a turmoil. The ruling clans have made the decision to remove Crown Prince Nayef, change policy, end ISIS support. In an unusual move, King’s son MBS was declared Crown Prince. But the Nayef clan is strong, and the Security agencies were not on Board. For that reason a palace coup resulted in hotel home detention for major figures whose loyalty was questioned, and who had to fortify their loyalty oath with cash and other deals.
Hope it is not much of a mystery to grasp that three things happened immediatelly. MBS was declared a villian, Yemen war turned from partnership into competition for Bab All-Manded control, Qatar conditions turned into “principles”, and Saudis diversified economy to include deals with Russia and China.
The initial fury over MBS included all manners of accussations. But the most blatant of all was the murder of Kashoggi. There was never much doubt that it was orvhestrated by security agents in order to declare MBS persona non- grata. Neocon loudspeakers were urging US stop communicating with MBS.
Saudi clans saw what happened, and gave MBS authority to reorganize security agencies. Former Crown Prince Nayaf was actually arrested later fo conspiracy. That was second attempt to get MBS.
Significantly Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt jouned China-Russia led Shangai Cooperation Organization last August. And UAE has pulled out of Yemen , ending its spoiler role in the South Yemen. Saudis had no slternative but to disuade US from seeking influence over Bab Al-Mandeb.
Whatever it is — it means that Houthis are no longer considering any posibility of leveraging US against Saudis. Houthis have no choice any more but to deal with Saudis. Bottom line — Egypt, Sudan and Saudis must be sure that US will not have an ally in Yemen to have a base snd the control of the Straits. Yemen war will end once Saudis, Houthis and Southern Secessionists reach a deal.
Turkey being SCO member is not about to organize a show trial against a fellow SCO member. This time there is a chance of settlement.
Saudis will in the end decide if the trial if the low end agents that committed the crime is politically useful from the perspective of the ruling clans. They maintain balance and harmony. But with Nayef going too far — it may be needed some form of cllissure thst trial can provide.