Since Turkey’s parliament extended its military operations in Iraq and Syria, it’s been virtually a foregone conclusion that another operation against Syria’s Kurds would be imminent.
Turkey-backed rebels are openly talking about their readiness, and are getting military supplies from Turkey to gear up for that. There is no date announced yet for the offensive, but it is expected soon.
Attacking Kurds is politically popular for the Erdogan government, but that doesn’t mean it’s consequence-free. The attacks on the Kurds are almost certain to provoke reactions, and not positive ones.
The US is allied with the Kurds, and would be expected to maybe say something. At the same time, Syria’s government will oppose the Turkish invasion, and their allies, Russia, are also likely to condemn the Turkish move.
That has not been enough for Turkey to not attack Kurds, and likely they’ll do it anyhow again and act offended if anyone has a problem with it. That’s been the go-to strategy for Erdogan for years, and has led to a lot of regional resentment.
Publicly, Syria and Russia will oppose this move. Behind the scenes, they are giving the greenlight.
Strange article. The “Syrian Kurds” is a spacious verbiage.
Which Kurds in Syria?
Majority Kurdish areas in Syria currently have no Kurdish militant groups operating in its territory. Not in Turkish occupied Afrin, nor in Syrian- controlled Kobane. But Kurds under SDF banner, funded by US, occasionally raid townships on Syria-Turkey border.
This is most likely to happen in region between Hassakah toownship and Rumailia, place on Iraqi border where oil fields are.
When Trump “decided” to keep oil fields that was just an excuse. The real reason is for US to stay ensconced on a critical juncture — Turkish, Syrian, Iraqi border areas, with Kurds on all sides of borders. This is a place where US can easily supply (from Iraq) weapons and money to murky militants on all sides. Same goes to Al-Tanf on Syria-Iraq border, controlling vital Damascus-Baghdad highway.
SDF and whatever is left from YPG are NOT protecting Kurdish-populated areas. They are US-paid militants serving as a cover for US small footprint in Hassakah region, just as those mystery fighters US is training in Al-Tanf base.
Turkey has been watching carefully Biden’s attempts to expand their territory, challenge Turkey.
Also, there is a marked uptick in Idlib area. with HTS attacking Turkish-supported militants.
It is humorous to hear that concerns will be raised in the area. Who will be concerned? Syria and Russia are tacitly in agreement. Damascus cannot openly back it for two obvious reasons. One, Turkey is nominally US ally, and has to be kept in that status. Damascus support would weaken Turkish hand. Damascus must remain sensitive to Kurd population and their fear of Turkey.
However, whatever actions are to be taken, they are cleared not only by Damascus and Russia, but also by Iraq, Iraqi Kurds and Iran.
Iraqi Kurds, contrary to popular opinion support Turkish operations in Syria and Iraq. US continues to support Turkish PKK, and had them expanded into Iraq and Syria, in order to create a nucleus around which Kurds can be coalesced. The strategy dud not work in Iraq and is not working in Syria.
One would think Biden was not going to resurrect old Hillary plan. But he is — clear lack of forward thinking Democrats.
With everything in Biden’s plate — one would think this pathetic, tiny footprint in Syria would have been shut down, allowing US to move on.
But it cannot be done. Domestic politics does not allow any forward thinking, or national interest considerations. It is a zero sum game, where special interests can wedge themselves inside the formula bubble and have an outsized influence on foreign policy.
C’mon man! Turkey-backed “rebels?” we don’t have a better label to describe them other than “rebels?” How about “mercenaries?”
Well, I guess I’ll have to settle for an improvement. At least we didn’t describe the Kurds’ forces as “democratic” one more time, falling again for their propaganda name. A name they selected for themselves.