An explosion tore through the base of al-Qaeda in Syria faction Hayat Tahrir al-Sham on Tuesday, in the rebel-dominated northern Syrian province of Idlib. At least eight fighters were killed, and 10 wounded.
Exactly what happened is still trying to be sorted out. A shell exploded, according to some, and it was during a training exercise among the fighters. At the same time, US coalition drones were overhead, so an attack cannot yet be ruled out.
This faction has dominated the rebel held parts of Idlib, having overwhelmed the other rebel factions in the small province. The Syrian government has made inroads into the province as well, controlling the main highway into neighboring Aleppo.
There hasn’t been a lot of heavy fighting in Idlib in recent months, but the situation has never been resolved. With the war effectively over in much of Syria, places like northern Idlib and Daraa al-Balad will be targets in an attempt to eliminate the rebellion.
It is definitely NOT US drone, as US always protected HTS. Every time US hit Idlib it was to assist HTS, not harm it. Two examples, killing militants and their leadership in Idlib after they announced getting out of HTS control and surrendering to Turkey in exchange for military pay. Strangely enough, they got killed in what US announced was a hit on Al-Qaeda. Another one was two years ago, US hitting a prison where HTS imprisoned IDLIB militants that rebelled against HTS. The key is — find out EXACTLY who the target is, before believing that US actually fights HRS.
HRS associated White Helmets are all evacuated. First to Jordan then to Germany. After thar — who knows.
This may have been an training accident. But not likely, as HTS does not train any more. Did they set up some suspected defectors, to send the message? That would be more HTS style,
If HTS key leadership just disappears like White Helmets, who would know? Perhaps some would be defectors found out, and talked?
There are few militant groups that are CLINGING to HTS, as they have no alternatives. Those are groups that committed recorded atrocities in Aleppo and beyond, like Al-Zinka members that beheaded a Palestinian boy and recorded it on video. Many members of that group fled, but core is staying to dear end.
HTS knows that the UN aid to them was extended last time only after Russia cut the deal with US, promising it will be the last,
With time running out, and few more idiots coming from Daraa — HTS and its British sponsors, have decisions to make.
Explosion can be an accident, a set up to kill someone or just disposal of explosives that went bad. If HTS top leaders bug out as White Helmets did, and externally controlled aid stops, Idlib will fall quickly. Without HTS, there are few hard core fighters. Others, especially those that after fall of Aleppo took families with them, will be ready to talk.