As 2025 comes to an end, the Israel-Lebanon border is in much the same case as it was when it began. There is nominally a ceasefire, as their has been since November of 2024, but the Israeli military routinely ignores that ceasefire and carries out attacks on southern Lebanon on a near-daily basis.
Overnight, two attacks were reported in southern Lebanon. In one case, Israeli ground troops advanced across the border some 1.6 kilometers and destroyed a house in the town of Houla. There was no official statement on why they attacked this particular house.
Later, in the early morning, an IDF drone attacked a bulldozer clearing an area in the town of Aita al-Shaab. No injuries were reported in either operation, though both clearly violates the ceasefire.
A house demolition in Houla | Image from X
Further escalation of Israeli violations of the ceasefire are expected as we move into 2026. One of the many Israeli demands issued to Lebanon during the year was a full disarmament of Hezbollah by year’s end. Since that was effectively impossible for Lebanon to do, and since the year is at an end, the Israeli military is reportedly awaiting a green light to attack Lebanon.
Though this is being branded as a potential “new” war, the reality is that the current war never actually ended, Israel never withdrew after the 2024 invasion, and never really stopped attacking Lebanese territory. The threat of a “new” war, then, probably rings rather hollow within southern Lebanon as their homes are still facing regular attack.
US Ambassador Michelle Issa pushed Lebanon to deploy the Army more fully into southern Lebanon to “strengthen stability.” The Lebanese Army has sought to do exactly that, though in practice actual deployment to the area would require it to be safe to operate in, and with Israeli occupations and regular Israeli strikes, it’s still effectively a war zone, and one the Lebanese Army would just as soon avoid.
Further escalation no longer feels like a threat to Lebanon, but rather just the expected Israeli policy continuing in the area. The question is how much of an actual escalation it will actually be, and if it will even be perceptible or just one of many subtle escalations of ongoing strikes.
