Since the Syrian regime change, there has been almost constant fighting between the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) and the US-backed Kurdish SDF. That fighting is escalating precipitously, with over 100 combatants killed over the last 48 hours, and no signs of the fight slowing down.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported 85 SNA fighters killed in that span of time, along with 16 SDF fighters. Turkey’s own Defense Ministry claimed they had “neutralized” 32 Kurds across the north, but didn’t offer specific details.
Turkey and its SNA have taken virtually the whole area around Manbij, the initial focus of this offensive, but have since moved on to attacking the Tishreen Dam and Kobane. It is expected they’ll also attempt to take al-Tabqa, giving them a route to attack the major city of Raqqa.
Most of the casualties in the last 48 hours were in fighting around Kobane, and the SDF has reported that they have repelled all the attacks on that area. It doesn’t seem likely that’s going to end the matter, however.
Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says that the “revolution” in Syria marks the end for Kurdish “separatist terrorists.” He said he believes the new Islamist government will move against the Kurds, and that they will also face “Turkey’s iron fist.”
Turkey and the SNA heavily backed the regime change, even though it led to the installation of al-Qaeda-linked Islamists in power. Turkey has long believed that a Syria dominated by Sunni Arabs would crack down harder on the autonomous ambitions of the Kurds.
The US has so far not gotten directly involved, though Turkey is demanding they stop supporting the Kurds. US forces have recently begun setting up a base in Kobane as well, suggesting direct US involvement is going to happen sooner rather than later.
Beyond backing the SNA offensive against the SDF, Turkey has also launched artillery attacks from the city of Jarabulus against Tishreen Dam, and drone strikes against a house on the outskirts of Kobane. A Turkish drone was also reported to have destroyed a vehicle near Tishreen Dam, though no casualties were reported there.
We'll see. Last I heard from the Kurdish side (but it was on Dec. 30) they had killed 250 Turco-fascists: https://rojavainformationcenter.org/2024/12/update-december-30-heavy-fighting-in-manbij/
In all fairness, Syria should be for Syrians. These “Turco-fascists” are actually Syrians that Danascus Army could not defend. All along Turkish border and well into the countryside, either Kurds or ISIS brougt disaster upon those communities. Out of desparation many self-defence units were organized. US for a short while tried to weaponize them against Assad. They were collectively called Free Syrian Army. As those were more innterested in defendiingv their homes then fighting Assad – US abandoned them for Kurds.
Turkey had to protect its borders from lawlessness, crime, ISIS occupation of some places, Kurdish occupation of others. Turkey offered all these self-defense units a protection under Turkish Army, salary and arms. But such groups could not opperate withouth Turkish aporoval. This weeded out semi-criminal groups.
Over time, these Syrian Corps became official, with special uniforms. Today called Syrian National Army. It participated in all operations against ISIS and Kurds. Let us not forget Jarabulus that was occupied by ISIS, or Al-Bab.
US found new and willing allies with a new name — and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) was born. At first had some Arabs, but those left long time ago, and only Kurdish YPG remained.
i do not believe Kurds have any business occupying towns and areas where Kurds are a tiny minority. Such as Manbij or Raqqa. Or orovince of Deir Azzor. Locals rebbelled many times against Kurds for a variety of reasons. One, running schools mandating Kurdish language. US often helped Kurds against locals branding locals ISIS.
In Syria ISIS seemed to have one purpose — be a placeholder for subsequent Kurdish “liberation”. A string of such places along Turkish border aimed at connecting two Kurdish enclaves —Kobane and Afrin. Turkey had to act.
But after removal of YPG from Afrin, the focus became Idlib. Idlib is not HTS, and HTS is not Idlib. However, Turkey’s efforts to peel off former militants stuck in Idlib were only partially sucessful. The stalemate resulted.
Kurds have placed all their eggs in US basket. They are now making ethniic Syrians hate them.
For Turkey Kurdish secession is unacceptable as it would become the staging ground for arming Turkish PKK.
Stalemate is over. Clearly a decision has been made to end it. With Assad gone, and his last decision was for Army to stand down and the government offer peaceful transition. HTS with their 15,000 militants (data available a day befoe HTS move) increased to 30,000 a day after. Either way — this is not enough to control Damascus.
The game is now on. Israel is rapidly taking advantage of the chaos to take territory.
Turkey’s Syrian forces number over 100,000, for now focused on Kurds.
The unseemly haste by Western diplomats to bow to the former head-chopper is hard to believe. First US, followed by France and Germany.
The long term prospects are not good for the region. Israel’s actions speak louder than words, and it is becoming a real threat to Turkey and all neighboring countries.
A strong Turkey in Syria is a threat to Israel. Syrian army of 270,000 did not disappear. It is all shaping up as an eventual war betwern Turkey and Israel. US is the only one that can prevent it. So far it is trying to make Joulani a king-maker. Let us see if it works
The fascists (HTS, SNA) are mostly NOT SYRIANS, Rojava Kurds and their Arab, Syriac, Yazidi, Armenian… allies are Syrians instead, Syrians who chose, largely by need of self-defense against those very foreign fascist invaders. Not even Julani is Syrian, as it was revealed by Marouf in this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v3MHRrF1zfk (synthesis: Julani’s claimed family/clan says he’s not one of them, US files show he’s from a Saudi (or Iraqi) tribe instead, then he goes on despicable rampage against “the Kurds”, much like yours, so much that I had to downvote the video and issue a protest).
The Rojava Revolution has been a blessing for those involved, very especially for women, who are now empowered in equal terms with men, also in the militia. It’s been good for refugees from elsewhere in Syria, many of whom sheltered in Afrin Canton and then were displaced again by the Turco-fascists, while both the USA and Russia let Erdogan do and only Damascus helped to some extent, later also in Mambij, against the common Turco-fascist foe. It’s been good for all ethnicities, who are now participant and represented in their respective communities and in the federation. It’s been even relatively good for the many ISIS prisoners, largely women, who would have got much worse treatment under any other jailer, go figure!
Manbij was self-ruled under joint protection of Damascus and the SDF. If the SDF wins (and I hope so) it will be self-ruled again, else the Turco-fascists will proceed with their usual routine of ethnic cleansing, rape and general ultra-violence against civilians.
As for international alliances, there were no other baskets to put any egg in. Russia and Iran are even more right-winger than the USA and thus hate feminism, socialism and democracy even more than Uncle Sam. Never mind China, who is not even present in the region in any way that is not doing dubious petrobusiness.
Less “campism” and more radical realism. For people like myself, Rojava is (in spite of the US “alliance”, which doesn’t work anymore or is at best very dubious and unstable) about the only beacon of hope in this world and especially in the Middle East (yeah, those Yemenis also deserve my respect, really, but they are a more conservative type of force).
I really don’t care how Turkey feels about not being able to bully the Kurds (or the Armenians or the Syrians) anymore. You just don’t side with the bully, which is also a genocider along with their Israeli and US friends. You have much criticism about the North Syrian alliance with the USA and none about Erdogan being in NATO, allowing the USA inside its borders (at the largest Kurdish city incidentally) and about his despicable collaboration with Israel and the USA in so many crimes, especially against Armenia and Syria.
I don't know much about the region, but to me it looks like the civil war is picking up speed and will be very bloody with so many vultures all wanting what is left of Syria. The Syrian people will pay for it, they will be the real looser.
There will be no war between Turkey and Israel. That is not going to happen. Both countries has a lot to lose in such a war with nothing to gain.
WTF…. All the insanity of recent Syrian chaos is deftly explained by our antiwar savant of political intrigues. !!-Bianca-!! Is there anyone commenting here that comes even close to understanding what is going on & why to HER????? IT’S too bad that you guys down there don’t provide a stipend to her for making this place the best place on the net to explain what seems to be totally inexplicable, clear as the water from a mountain spring !!!!!
So, will it bring the U.S. into conflict with the Turks?
Of course not.
”Let there be Peace on Earth and let it begin with me! With every step we take, a peace for eternity! With God as our father, Christ as his son! Mary as our mother! There can be peace for everyone!”….