Beginning late Wednesday, the Syrian Islamist rebel faction Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) launched a major offensive out of the Idlib Province into the Aleppo Province. The result is heavy fighting and airstrikes, and it is now being reported HTS has reached the city of Aleppo itself.
HTS captured over 50 towns and villages on the way from Idlib Province to Aleppo, which is the second largest city in Syria. The most recent figure available is that as many as 400 people, mostly combatants, have been killed in the fighting. A number of others have also been killed in airstrikes by Syria and Russia’s air forces, at least 19 on Thursday alone.
The Russia-backed counter-offensive was aimed at keeping HTS out of the important city, which before the Syrian Civil War was the nation’s industrial hub. It seems HTS has reached at least five neighborhoods of Aleppo, in western districts of the town.
Syria’s Army was a lot more upbeat on their prospects, saying they had “repelled” a major offensive into Aleppo, despite evidence that HTS forces are still in the city and some claims their fighter had reached the city’s center. The army also reported that they had reclaimed some towns and villages lost yesterday in the offensive, though that can’t yet be confirmed.
It is fair to say the counter-offensive isn’t going as well as planned, and there are some reports indicating that Russia’s heavy air commitment to the ongoing Ukraine War meant a smaller force left behind in Syria, and that force was slow to react to the surprise offensive.
Syria’s military has reportedly added special forces into the area of western Aleppo. This is likely a response to how poorly the fight has been going on the ground, and the fact that this fight is including more than just HTS fighters.
Indeed, the Turkish-backed Syrian Arab Army (SAA) has joined the HTS offensive, and is fighting against Syrian forces in the same area.
HTS has dubbed their offensive operation “Deter the Aggression,” and says the effort is meant to prevent Syria, Russia and Iran from pushing into Idlib Province, which they hold. The fighting has also shut down the M5 highway, which connects Damascus and Aleppo. They have also reportedly neared the M4 highway, which leads eastward out of Aleppo. That’s likely to make deployments of further reinforcements by Syria’s government more difficult in the days to come.
HTS formed in early 2017 as a merger of several Islamist militant groups, centering initially around fighting Jabhat al-Nusra but ultimately merging with them as well. Jabhat al-Nusra was effectively the Syrian wing of al-Qaeda, though they broke with them publicly in 2016. Despite that, HTS maintains much of the underlying rhetoric of al-Qaeda.
Publicly, HTS and their leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani has tried to disavow al-Qaeda and ISIS and has courted favor with the US. He has styled the civilian body in HTS-dominated Idlib the Syrian Salvation Government. It has long been suspected that this rebranding was more about trying to turn Syrian Sunni Islamist factions into a more palatable partner for Western involvement in the region than any major ideological differences with the international jihadists.
The West has a history of backing some of the more local Sunni Islamist groups in the Syrian Civil War. Indeed, the HTS ties with Ukraine’s government underscores that many see them as a practical partner in their respective regional wars. This could be a growing concern for the Syrian government, as what was once a contained problem in the Idlib Province looks to explode outward starting many of the same fights all over again.
