Taiwanese military experts will join US and Japanese analysts in conducting war game simulations for a potential conflict with China in the Taiwan Strait, The South China Morning Post reported Monday.
It will mark the first time that Taiwanese analysts join the tabletop exercises, demonstrating the increasing preparations for war in the region. The event will be hosted in Tokyo by the Japan Forum for Strategic Studies, a semi-official think tank.
“This is the first time experts from Taiwan will work with their US and Japanese counterparts on tabletop simulations,” said Su Tzu-yun, a senior analyst for the Institute for the National Defence and Security Research, a government think tank in Taiwan.
The war games will simulate a conflict with China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) on one side, known as the red team, and the US, Taiwan, and Japan on the other side, known as the blue team.
“Participants are also expected to analyze military scenarios in the Taiwan Strait and East and South China seas and come up with proposals on how the ‘blue team’ could deal with the threats from the ‘red team,'” Su said.
“The simulations do not necessarily mean that war would come soon, but rather they are risk management. They also carry a message to Beijing that war is disastrous and all parties must be rational in dealing with it,” Su added.
Both US and Japanese think tanks have recently conducted tabletop war games to simulate a conflict over Taiwan. The think tanks typically conclude that the US and Japan can stop China from taking Taiwan but will take heavy losses. However, it’s not clear how accurate the war games are or if the think tanks are taking the risk of nuclear escalation into account.
The Center for a New American Security (CNAS), a hawkish think tank based in Washington that receives funding from US arms makers and Taiwan’s de facto embassy, recently conducted a Taiwan war game with members of the House’s new committee on China, an unusual move for members of Congress.
Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI), the head of the China committee, said the war game showed the US needs to arm Taiwan “to the teeth.” But more US support for Taiwan could make a conflict more likely as Beijing has put Taiwan under increasing military pressure in response to the growing ties between Washington and Taipei.
Law of Sea has a interesting Article relating to the waters between the island of Formosa and the PRC;
Article 38
Right of transit passage
1. In straits referred to in article 37, all ships and aircraft enjoy the right of transit passage, which shall not be impeded; except that, if the strait is formed by an island of a State bordering the strait and its mainland, transit passage shall not apply if there exists seaward of the island a route through the high seas or through an exclusive economic zone of similar convenience with respect to navigational and hydrographical characteristics.
How does that relate to the strait between PRC and Taiwan, which are two separate states?
2 separate States ? Not according to Washington’s official policy since Nixon. 🙂
As if “Washington’s official policy” ever enjoys more than a partial and tangential relationship with reality.
Thomas,
True oh so true.
The US builds trust by talking peace from one side of their mouth (Blinken) and war from another (also Blinken). Only one problem, this has never been proven effective in building trust, ever, forever, and then more than ever and forever… …What’s that? …The Chinese are fools and we’re exceptionally smart? …hmm… I like being exceptionally smart. …But… …Oh, I’m also morally superior, a global moral authority? …I don’t know. I mean I like it, how about all the millions we killed for absolutely no good reason? …Oh, I see… They killed each other and we’re innocent? …Okay, okay. You’re looking more attractive… Did you do something with your hair? Oh… You’re expecting? You’re carrying Satan’s child!? (big a$$ sarcasm)
Blinken tells China that the “US does not support Taiwan independence”
https://thepostmillennial.com/bidens-secretary-of-state-declares-us-does-not-support-taiwan-independence
Tabletop exercises? Not even video games but old school tabletop exercises?
With little ships, different colored plastic armymen and little stick thingies to push it all around with just like in the movies?
Cool………
It’s been about 30 years since I last participated in a “tabletop simulation,” but even by that time they didn’t look like that.
There were tables, around which were seated the complement of commanding officers. There were convenient maps on the wall.
There were other tables with radios and/or phones, staffed by comms people.
“Communications and intelligence” would come in from the simulation controllers via the phones/radios, the officers would respond to the supposed events as they unfolded, corporals would mark incoming reports on the maps, etc., the officers would issue orders which would go back “out” over the phones, radios, and more “communications and intelligence” would arrive.
There were other rooms with tables, not that they were used much, with similar input/output. I was in the Fire Support Coordination Center room (this was a regimental level simulation) for some reason I never figured out since I was just a mortar platoon Fire Direction Center chief. The simulation didn’t go down to my level (in real life, I’d have been hearing from, not at, the FSCC), so I didn’t have much to do. Maybe they were thinking about kicking me up to some regimental/FSCC role or something (if so, they decided against it).
You really need a sense of humor.
I made a joke and you took me so seriously that you took the time to share about real ones ….lol.
Didn’t Blinker just went to PRC to negotiate some sort of truth? The Anglo-American empire is having serious trouble in a war with Russian Federation alone. There is no way they can take on the entire Eurasian Alliance in a war. It’s suicide.