A Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) document that has surfaced as part of a trove of leaks suggests the US believes it can pressure Israel to provide “lethal aid” to Ukraine, The Times of Israel reported.
A photo of the document circulating online shows that it lays out four possible scenarios in order from most plausible to least plausible that could result in Israel providing Kyiv with weapons. The top secret document is titled “Israel: Pathways to Providing Lethal Aid to Ukraine” and is dated February 28, 2023.
Antiwar.com could not verify the authenticity of the photo, but its contents match reporting from media outlets that have access to the documents US officials have said are authentic, including The New York Times.
The first and most plausible scenario outlined by the DIA analysis is Israel adopting a “Turkish model” for Ukraine under US pressure. The Turkish model means selling Ukraine weapons through third parties but openly advocating for peace talks to end the war, as Ankara has done throughout the conflict.
The second scenario is if Russia supplies Iran with more advanced equipment, such as Su-35 fighter jets, or expands support for Iranian weapons programs, and Israel responds by providing lethal aid to Kyiv.
The third scenario is if Israel requests expanded US support for “counter-Iran activities” in response to Russia allowing advanced conventional Iranian weapons through Syria. In exchange for the US supporting Israeli operations against Iran, Israel would provide lethal aid to Ukraine.
The background provided for the third scenario suggests that Israel has already requested US support for its operations against Iran. The background reads: “Israeli defense leaders are advocating for increased risk-taking to counter Iran, including proposing bilateral US-Israeli operations. Israel has regularly requested ATG overflights to support strikes in Syria.”
ATG likely refers to the al-Tanf Garrison, a US base in southern Syria. In July 2022, The Wall Street Journal reported that the US and Israel had been coordinating on Israeli airstrikes in Syria that are launched from the direction of the ATG. According to the report, the vast majority of Israeli airstrikes that pass the ATG have been approved by the US.
The fourth scenario, and least plausible, is if Russia incurs casualties from Israeli airstrikes in Syria and begins firing on Israeli aircraft, causing Israel to change its calculus on lethal aid to Ukraine.
Since the document was published on February 28, Israel has dramatically ramped up its airstrikes in Syria, including one strike that killed two members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). But at this point, there’s no indication that Israel has pledged to provide the “lethal aid” Washington desires.
Axios reported on March 15 that Israel approved the export of an anti-drone jamming system for Ukraine, which uses electronic warfare to down drones. Israeli officials have said this export doesn’t mean their position is changed since the system doesn’t have live-fire rounds that can kill Russians. The Axios report said Israel first notified Ukraine it would approve the export on February 15, before the DIA analysis was published.
The DIA document mentioned three Israeli weapons systems the US is hoping might be sent to Kyiv, including the Barak 8 surface-to-air missile system, the Spyder air defense system, and the Spike ATGM, the Israeli equivalent to the US Javelin anti-tank missile system.
39 thoughts on “Intel Leak: US Considering Helping Israel Against Iran for Ukraine ‘Lethal Aid’”
US will help Israel anyway. The support of Ukrainian neo-Nazism is not so popular in Israel as in NATO countries. Many Israelites have Russian as their mother tongue and so far there are no signs of restricting the use of Russian language in Israel. Most of Israelites with USSR background know very well what happened to their relatives who got under Nazi occupation in time of WW II and their sympathies are definitely on the side of Russia. Russians can visit Israel without visa while Ukrainians need it. With NATO countries it is other way around.
If they are stupid enough to try that, Iran has more than enough Missiles to destroy all the US Military Bases in the Persian Gulf 10 times over and there is nothing they can do about it.
“Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right, here I am, stuck in the middle with you…”
Time for some PEACE pot.
It sounds more like future plans that will be explained to the American public as repayment for Israeli support of Ukraine, not how the proposed actions are in our interests enough to be involved in them.
Right. Given recent peace offensive in the region, Washington is the needy party.
Perhaps we don’t need to be in the area protecting Europe’s gas pump?
I emphatically agree with that. Unfortunately the Neocons feel they need it even more now (1) to restore the petrodollar and (2) to block China’s Belt& Road.
The petrodollar is about to have a possible competitor in August when the BRICS meet in Durban. On the egenda is a new currency (among other things)
The Belt and Road has serious neocolonial issues including labor practices that are akin to slavery, opposition to it is not a bad thing.
The Chinese are not “less” evil than we are.
I always enjoy your comments ZaSu. I enjoy your sense of logic.
But everyone can’t be equally “less”. There has to be a “less” measuring chart to determine the least of the “less”. U “less” A! U “less” A! C’mon let’s kick some “less” ass! 😉
U less A !
LOL somebody should sell hats
I agree on both counts. A multi-polar balance is the ideal to aim at in order in to achieve the greatest good for the greatest number and mitigate the brute axioms of Nature’s Law.
Multi-polar beats bi-polar any day of the week,
Yes, if we’re talking geopolitics. Otherwise … ??
Brute axioms of nature’s law? What an interesting interpretation.
Nature is not intrinsically brutal or hostile. We hominids with the swollen cerebral cortex are the exception to the rule that thou shalt not slay one of one’s own kind. There are very few if any demonstrable examples in nature of lethal violence in nature among members of any classification – within that class – with the possible exception of ants.
It’s my understanding, if you put a young mature boar in with an old established one, they will fight to the death to win monopoly of the females? Same with a cock, bull, buck, …. In Genesis Jehovah makes a deal with the Abraham to let the males live if they agree to be castrated (circumcision is a vestigial form). Oedipus, of course, makes short work of Laius. In short the alpha male gets all the females and all the cattle. Mutatis mutandis, It’s the same today, no?
All world wars are fought in more than one theater. The Middle East is moving in that direction, conflict based on both global and regional issues.
“A DIA document suggests the US thinks it can pressure Israel into sending weapons to Kyiv.” US puts “war” in warmongering. Okay folks, some “leaked” documents seem too authentic to ignore!
really, “too authentic to ignore”
remember how authentic was the terrorist passport that fluttered down to the sidewalk beneath one of the WTC towers. that was literally the extent of uncle sam’s evidence re 9/11 terrorists
LOL, I did add “seems” just in case. I’m with you. There could also be authentic stuff mixed in to sell something specific and important to mislead the Russians. By the way, I have been known to make plenty of mistakes. I have voted for several presidents who turned out to be the worst.
Sometimes you don’t know what you got, until you buy it NA. 😉
we all make mistakes but i don’t think you made one there – i was just high-jacking your comment for my own ends
Israel adopting a “Turkish model” which means selling Ukraine weapons through third parties but openly advocating for peace talks to end the war
really, “adopting”? remember when israel was caught red-handed trying to sell nuke weaponry to south africa. anyway what, is Raytheon supply not meeting up to ukraine demands ?
Israel will have bigger problems than worrying about Ukraine or Iran. Dark clouds are gathering., Iran and the Middle East region are consolidating . The handwriting is in the wall. Russian warship visiting Saudi port in ever first scch event. Isral’s has becone annoying to Gods and humans.
A tad bleak Bianca but true.
5th scenario: US gets really desperate and threatens Israel with stopping this years $4 billion dollar donation from our taxpayers. Seriously. Stop laughing. It would be the only reason it could ever happen.
Sound logic wars, very sound.
6th Scenario: It seems that the annual donation is not on the table meaning Israel can do Nothing and still get the $4 billions….!
What happened, did pentagon run out of their almost $900 billion budget they beg Israel for weapons? You folks don’t understand, if the corrupt regime in Ukraine falls, the sky falls. China will start flying balloons all over US, and Russia starts selling all of its oil to Saudi Arabia. Biden knows best.
Which is the prostitute and which the client? Hard to tell….
So Biden wants to help Israel attack Iran so that the 21’st century version of Apartheid will help Biden to help Ukraine. Which is a nation that Biden does not think is good enough to be part of NATO. Though he still seems desperate to help it in every, other way. Just so long as it hurts Russia.
If this nonsense keeps up?
I might start to miss the Cold War.
“US thinks it can pressure”
This is why many countries are joining BRICS. Other nations do not want to be “Pressured” by the US.
Ain’t that the truth?!
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