A four-star US Air Force general thinks a war between the US and China is only two years away and has ordered his forces to start preparing for the conflict.
In a memo obtained by NBC News, Gen. Mike Minihan, the head of Air Mobility Command, said of a war with China, “I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me will fight in 2025.”
AMC is a major command of the US Air Force and is responsible for transportation and refueling. Nearly 50,000 airmen are members of AMC, and the command oversees about 430 aircraft.
Rep. Michael McCaul, the new chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said that he believes Minihan’s prediction is right. “I hope he is wrong. … I think he is right though,” McCaul told Fox News on Sunday.
Later on Sunday, Rep. Adam Smith (D-WA), ranking member of the House Armed Services Committee, pushed back on the prediction and said it was “highly unlikely” the US and China would be at war in 2025. “Generals need to be very cautious about saying we’re going to war,” Smith said.
In his memo, Minihan claimed because the US and Taiwan are both holding presidential elections in 2024, they will be distracted, giving China the opportunity to move on Taiwan.
For their part, China has recently reiterated that it seeks “peaceful reunification” with Taiwan but won’t rule out the use of force. China has an interest in not invading Taiwan due to its robust trade relationship with the island and the sheer difficulty of such a large-scale amphibious invasion.
But China has stepped up its military activity around Taiwan due to increasing US support for Taipei. Despite Beijing’s warnings, the US continues to boost ties with Taiwan, including by providing unprecedented military aid. At some point, this support could become intolerable for China, and Beijing could take actions short of an invasion, such as a blockade or attacking small islands that Taiwan controls off mainland China’s coast.
A war between the US and China could also be sparked in the South China Sea, where the US has increased its military presence in recent years. US and Chinese warplanes and warships occasionally have close encounters in the area, and with US-China relations at such a low point, an accident could spiral into a wider conflict.
Minihan told the officers he commands to report all major efforts they take to prepare for war with China by February 28. He said during the month of February, all AMC personnel should “fire a clip into a 7-meter target with the full understanding that unrepentant lethality matters most. Aim for the head.”
Minihan also called for his personnel to get their affairs in order as they prepare for war. He said in the month of March, they should “consider their personal affairs and whether a visit should be scheduled with their servicing base legal office to ensure they are legally ready and prepared.”
47 thoughts on “Air Force General Predicts the US Will Be at War With China in 2025”
He’s the one who wants to ride the bomb down as he gives out a hearty yahoo while waving his cowboy hat…
These elected officials and military are blinkered and on a track to perdition — our perdition, that is, the people of the United States (oh, and other countries as well). War is the first and most-loved response of scoundrels and those with a monetary interest. Our technology now makes war unviable and truly a threat to human existence. There need to be other ways. Negotiate. Negotiate. Make tough trade-offs. We are locked in a zero sum game now and need to change the rules. Every time a country looms and is difficult, the reptile brain responds: kill! kill! kill!
Good ol’ Dr. Strangelove seems to have limitless clones.
WTAF! Why? Taiwan? Give them weapons, give them support make the mainland buy that island dear but war?
What a despicable lot.
Assuming we make it to 2025.
Listening to some republican and democratic neighbors/operatives, it seems the US population has been primed for that outcome. The level of hate and racism against the Chinese is staggering. The republicans call the Chinese anti-Christian and communist. The democrats call them anti-democratic, authoritarian, pro-Russian, and anti-Taiwanese. Most seem happy to sacrifice their sons and daughters now–don’t even want to wait ’till 2025. It’s insane.
I don’t think there will be a war over Taiwan anytime soon. The Tawianese haven’t spent the last 8 years shelling ethnic Chinese villages (mostly because everyone on the island is ethnically Chinese) and the US hasn’t figured out a way to make the island bigger or push it closer to China’s shoreline.
This US economy can not function without massive spending on arms and the Military. There is little or none Capitalistic profit to be had in feeding,housing,employing or educating our masses or providing free health care and a healthy enviornment.l The powers that be would rather blow the whole thing up instead of bfixing bthe preoblems.
It would be even dumber than dumb. Interruption of trade with China would deal a crushing blow to the US economy and instantly create critical shortages of consumer products, medicines and ingredients for medicines and other imports that couldn’t readily be replaced.
China holds a big chunk of US debt, treasury bonds. aggressively selling it off would do very bad things to Wall Street and, probably, to US interest rates. It would also further weaken the US dollar’s position as world reserve currency.
And then there’s the little problem of the prospective war itself. Recent war games have repeatedly resulted in major US losses to China or Pyrrhic victories in which a full-scale invasion of Taiwan is defeated but at the cost of massive losses of US assets and resources.
And so on.
I agree, but they are using the list you provided as the reasons for the war with China. I am not kidding. They are dumb and evil. The people who believe them are dumber of course.
Nothing in the article suggests that the US wants or is going to initiate a war with China.
Of course not. It wants, and is going to initiate, a war between Tawain and China.
Based on a Taiwanese invasion of mainland China??? I find that absurdly unlikely why would the Taiwanese agree to this?
I think you know what I meant.
It can be hard to figure out, are you proposing that that the US would use Taiwan as a base for invading China, because otherwise how do they initiate a war, if neither by the US nor by the Taiwanese attacking China?
I know. Constant provocations don’t matter. As long as someone takes the bait, the US is off the hook.
Constant provocations is not initiating war – and a provocation that would not make the US (one of the most aggressive and easily provoked nations) invade e.g. Cuba ought not make Chine initiate a war either. What you are describing is that China would initiate a war, not the US.
Cuba? Is someone using Cuba to provoke the US like the US is using Tawain to provoke China? Or how the US is using Ukraine to “weaken” Russia? Would the Russia/Ukraine war have started without the US’ participation? Would tensions be as heightened with China without US provocations? Initiate or instigate, what’s the difference?
Not currently –
It did – the US was not in Ukraine and the Ukrainians were not giving in to Russian demands, if you want a longer perspective then likely without the US Ukraine would still have had its nuclear weapons and Putin would not have attacked.
The US is provoking the Chinese simply by not recognizing their right to use military force to take Taiwan – that is it, so the difference is clear to just about everyone but the blind.
Yes, it did. But if you think the US was innocent bystanders it’s really not worth conversing with you.
Same with China. Just ignore the US provocations and focus on China’s reactions to those provocations. Works every time. But I’m the blind one.
The issue here is that you see the visit of e.g. Nancy Pelosi as a provocation – most of the rest of us have a different standard for what would constitute a provocation that could even remotely justify a war.
Sure, and Nancy’s visit is the extent of our provocations.
No AFAIK the US also sell Taiwan weapons – imagine the provocation of doing so – it’s beyond absurd!
Of course, our selling ANYBODY weapons can’t possibly be seen as a provocation. Like we had no problem with Iran providing Russia with drones. We probably wouldn’t have a problem with a Chinese general predicting war with the US by 2025 either. Or if the same rhetoric was coming from China’s government that comes from our congressional war hawks. I can’t come to this website without reading a headline about US belligerence towards China. Now let’s go open some new bases in the Philippines.
We may feel provoked, but that would never justify declaring war on Iran – apply sanctions as much as we like sure, war no.
If the Chinese were predicting war based on the assumption that the US would attack mainland China, I guess that would not be a problem. This btw was from one air force general and not a particularly astute one of those.
Well if it makes you happy…
“We may feel provoked, but that would never justify declaring war on Iran – apply sanctions as much as we like sure, war no.”
Sanctions are an act of war. And I’m sure if other countries could sanction us into economic misery, we’d consider that to be an act of war and respond accordingly.
“If the Chinese were predicting war based on the assumption that the US would attack mainland China, I guess that would not be a problem. This btw was from one air force general and not a particularly astute one of those.”
The general’s assumption was absurd. And we are loaded with not “particularly astute” generals and congress people” That doesn’t make them less provocative when they shoot off their mouths.
“Well if it makes you happy…”
That is just stupid.
No they are not and other countries have tried to apply sanctions to the US – (EU just to mention one) and the US did not consider it a war and in at least one case backed down.
It makes the provocation a lot less serious than if it comes from a member of congress and a lot less serous still than if it came from the government.
Well how do you think I felt about the whataboutery I replied to there?
“No they are not and other countries have tried to apply sanctions to the US – (EU just to mention one) and the US did not consider it a war and in at least one case backed down.”
You must be joking. The US has NEVER been sanctioned into economic misery and would be at war within days if any attempt at such was made. And if any country could sanction the US that even approaches Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran, would the US say sanctions aren’t an act of war? F*ck NO!
“It makes the provocation a lot less serious than if it comes from a member of congress and a lot less serous still than if it came from the government.”
Less serious provocations? I get it. So, now we have them rated so the less serious ones aren’t really provocations? And since military men shooting off their mouths weren’t included in your response, like the less than astute air force general, would those be “more” serious?
“Well how do you think I felt about the whataboutery I replied to there?”
Whataboutery? How so? We were talking about belligerent provocations towards China and I pointed out how there are articles here every day pointing them out.
The US was not sanctioned into economic misery because the US backed down – EU engaged in a trade war with the Trump administration and the US backed down – you do not get to the misery point if you back down.
In order for a conflict to escalate to sanctions levels the parties need to not back down the US have when it was a conflict that they were not going to win, EU has acted similarly when it was them who were going to lose.
“It makes the provocation a lot less serious than if it comes from a member of congress and a lot less serous still than if it came from the government.”
There are any number of idiots out there shouting this that and an other thing – those are less serious provocations – a US air force general in an internal memo saying that he expects a conflict within a couple of years clearly falls under a less serious provocation so much less serious that it hardly deserves mentioning – if it was a memo on how to invade main land China then it would be worse.
Oh so the US agreeing with the Philippines to make a base there is a provocation to the Chinese – good to know that you grant the Chinese the right to dictate what nations separated by hundreds of miles of sea from China can do on their own territory.
“The US was not sanctioned into economic misery because the US backed down – EU engaged in a trade war with the Trump administration and the US backed down – you do not get to the misery point if you back down.”
Wow. Talk about grasping. How about this? Let’s say another country were capable of unilaterally slapping sanctions on the US that would destroy the US economy. And that same country would also threaten to sanction anyone who dared do business with the US. Would the US consider that an act of war and respond accordingly?
“In order for a conflict to escalate to sanctions levels the parties need to not back down the US have when it was a conflict that they were not going to win, EU has acted similarly when it was them who were going to lose.”
WTF? I don’t have a clue what your point is there.
“Oh so the US agreeing with the Philippines to make a base there is a provocation to the Chinese – good to know that you grant the Chinese the right to dictate what nations separated by hundreds of miles of sea from China can do on their own territory.”
This is in the first paragraph:
“The new sites are part of an American military buildup in the Indo-Pacific to prepare for war with China.”
I know it’s only the author’s opinion but it’s also pretty obvious.
“The Pentagon aims to encircle China with two thirds of all U.S. air and naval forces.”
Again, just the author’s opinion but again, pretty obvious.
This is Ukraine all over again.
Yeah. To even imagine that the US is likely to initiate a war in China you’d have to be . . . of at least near-normal intelligence and living somewhere other than an off-grid cabin with no communication links to the outside world.
Also China relies on Taiwan for computer chip manufacturing which are somewhat more complex to make than Ukraine’s most high-tech export of Sunflower seeds. A war there would wreck China’s tech sector as well.
Yes, the whole world relies on TSMC output. They make 90% of the most advanced chips on the planet, and plenty of the others, too. Of course, Taiwan’s economy would be really wrecked. TSMC accounts for about $70 billion of its total $500 billion in exports.
Except in response to US meddling, China has shown little interest in using force to reintegrate Taiwan. If it happens, it will almost certainly be as a result of the US finally pushing over a red line.
“Bonkers” Bolton-type in uniform.
“In his memo, Minihan claimed because the US and Taiwan are both holding presidential elections in 2024, they will be distracted, giving China the opportunity to move on Taiwan.”
Ah yes, I remember in 2004 when we were in the process of destroying Iraq for the second time, we were almost overrun because of the distraction of a presidential election being held here in the states.
Yeah, we’ll all be so distracted by elections we won’t notice China invading Taiwan. And not to dis multi-engine pilots but it’s funny this guy is talking all firepower badass. He needs to stick to what he knows.
That’ll keep those Commie demons from sapping and impurifying our precious bodily fluids! Of course, most of those troops haven’t touched a personal weapon in the line of duty since basic training.
This guy is a head case transport pilot Rambo wanna be. Empty a clip into a 7 meter unrepentant lethality, General Ripper? Really? Going to parachute into Beijing with both guns blazing? The fact that this individual has four stars should keep everybody awake and in their basements at night.
This guy is four star? What happened to real…
And China cannot read, just wait for our Rambo.
It was always all about China – good that they supplied via cheap labor all these electronic gadgets for us but now it is getting too big for it’s boots – a potent rival.
Agitate a war with Russia via Ukraine and bog them down but lets us keep poking China via arming close rivals like Japan. China must be knocked down as the USA oligarchs will have no rivals, even if millions die.
There is a problem with the math. The way I see it — both Japan and South Korea are arming themselves increasing their domestic production capabilities , domesticating technologies. They do not count on US defending them. This is the outside take on this. But more sophisticated take is — less reliance on US wouldvprovide more space for indicvidually honing their relationship with China and Russia.
There is a major push in developing a domestic defense industry.
US and Russia for decades had different approach to sharing military technology.
Long time ago Russia and India developed cooproductiin models. Scientific cooperation, branding of new models, shared use. That similar model is in place between Russia and Turkey, Russia and China, Russia-Egypt, Russia-Venezuela, Rusdia-UAE, etc.
American model was mostly based on parts production but no licencing nor intelectual rights. Even use of US equipment like Patriot is limited to authorized crews. US moodel is based on sales of American military technoligy with training and maintenance contracts built in.
Even South Korea has a missile defence technology based on Russian S-300.
Much is public information — not news here.
But what is clear – there is now a dillema. Russia has now access to new sources of weapons production in various countries. For US allies — either they have already an existing capacities to produce and market their military technology, or they buy from US. France in particular has been sucessful marketing its military technology. Many others — UK included — are lagging in production.
The weaknesses of military productiin in UK and Germany for example, can only be remedied short term by American technology. But that us Europe. In Asia, I see a decided move to self-sufficiency.
You are more an expert on this than I.
Whilst Japan may not need US to defend them, I think the US is goading Japan to to join it in aggressive stances towards China. Such as granting them more basis
The US is constantly harrying China
I do think the ‘prize’ is an all out war with China and the Russia trap in Ukraine is a step along the way.
Can not understand the anti-China stance of US citizens they are brainwashed by the media – look at the balloon hysteria. A prelude to war is always to demonize the enemy in public opinion.
Really like your posts.
“Air Force General Predicts the US Will Be at War With China in 2025 Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX) thinks the prediction is right”
America has depleted warehouses of 155 mm artillery shells along with other munitions sending arms to Ukraine. What will the US fight with?
A seven meter target? Are they trying to hit the side of a barn?
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