Ukraine DM Oleksii Reznikov told parliament on Friday that there is a low probability of any major escalation with Russia. He added that Ukraine intelligence sees every move made in the area.
Tensions at the Russia-Ukraine border have been ongoing, with several Western nations repeatedly predicting a huge war. Ukraine has chided those nations for causing a panic.
Predictions of such a conflict go back years, and while previous Ukraine officials had similar pessimism about it, more recently officials see a lot more chance for diplomacy.
President Biden again predicted a Russian invasion Friday, noting a Russian offer to talk later this month and suggesting there’d be no point if invasion happens first. Ukraine’s own assessment is clearly far afield of America’s.
“He added that Ukraine intelligence sees every move made in the area.”
So does the Donbass militias – and so does Russia. As for “major escalation”, clearly there has been so far a minor escalation. I suspect this will increase over the next few days and weeks. The Donbass militia can handle this level of escalation. If it gets worse, Russia has many options to help Donbass deal with it, before dealing with it themselves.
The bombardment of towns on the separation line has increased in the past 2 weeks. This caused Donetsk to evacuate women, children and old people. I think the Ukrainian government has been trying to mask this with the goal of getting Russia to withdraw troops that could respond to a takeover (the border is 100 km away with terrible roads that would be clogged with refugees fleeing). Once Ukraine pounces the streets could be filled with their tanks preventing Russian from using it’s superior missile, aircraft and artillery force. If this is Ukraine’ s strategy they best rethink it. All holy hell would descend upon them.