Ukraine Warns Against Panic After US Orders Embassy Evacuation

23 thoughts on “Ukraine Warns Against Panic After US Orders Embassy Evacuation”

1. Putin is again giving the US time to woof long enough to convince themselves they are acting in the interests of peace when accede to a neutral Ukraine.

2. All Zelensky needs to do is abide by the Minsk Accords Ukraine signed in 2015.

   1. That is something never spoken about by our Western MSM.

   2. And Minsk 2 is backed by UN Security Council
      Resolution 2202(2015), increasing its importance. Hey, local autonomy should be no big deal, many other
      countries deal with it, including 39 European countries.

3. Another interesting article – in Russian, use Google Translate if you’re using the Chrome browser, my Firefox doesn’t work – which states that the ongoing Russian navy military exercises are forcing cargo ships in the Black Sea to have to risk running aground to bypass the lanes closed by the exercises.

   The article is generally hostile to Russia, so keep that in mind. However, I can see the side-effect of the exercises. I would suggest that Ukraine blame the West’s ramping up of tensions as the primary cause, rather than some round-about attempt by Putin to strangle Ukrainian trade.

   The Black Sea is knee-deep: how Putin’s military exercises drive Ukraine’s maritime trade stranded
   https://www.epravda.com.ua/rus/publications/2022/02/13/682339/

   That is, the artillery and missile exercises of the Russian Federation generally do not close access to the ports of Ukraine, but to bypass them in the coming days, at least until February 20, will have to take a difficult route, where there is a risk of running aground. It seems that not all shipowners will go for it.

   The day before, economists and experts estimated the losses for Ukraine from the complete blockade of ports at tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars. However, some of these predictions provided for a complete blockade of the pores. This is not the case at the moment, but due to existing restrictions at the time of the exercise, the port industry may also suffer significant losses.

   Information that Ukraine is facing a naval blockade first appeared on February 9. Then the editor-in-chief of BlackSeaNews Andrei Klimenko said that Russia plans to limit large areas of the Azov and Black Seas during the exercise.

   To date, Russia has not blocked such large areas with important sea routes to Ukrainian ports.

   Then the Russian Federation sent a coastal warning, which announced restrictions on the movement of ships from 23:00 on February 13 to 00:00 on February 20. In the Black Sea, the recommended routes for ships to Ukrainian ports are currently blocked.

   In general, there was no question of a complete blockade, there was a narrow section for the passage of ships, between the shore and the blocked area. Instead, the Russians wanted to block the Sea of ​​Azov completely by closing the passage to Ukrainian ports through the Kerch Strait.

   The United States soon called Russia’s actions an “economic war” and a restriction of maritime sovereignty. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine also protested. The agency said that Russia had covered an “unprecedented area” for training and called such actions part of a hybrid war.

   On the same day, Russia changed its plans to block the Kerch Strait – restrictions on the Sea of ​​Azov were lifted.

   Over the past three days, Russia has changed its plans twice more.

   Currently, the situation is as follows: five new areas have been blocked in the Black Sea. And one of the sections of the Black Sea is blocked for a whole month – from February 11 to March 11.

4. Very interesting article over at The National Interest, pointing out some things I wasn’t aware of. Well worth the read.

   Why Washington Has Lost Its Mind Over Ukraine
   https://nationalinterest.org/feature/why-washington-has-lost-its-mind-over-ukraine-200513

   In particular, it notes that back in March/April, 2021, Ukraine explicitly announced that it intended to develop a plan to take back Donbass by force. And that this occurred after the Atlantic Council noted that the advent of drone forces had worked in the Azerbaijan conflict and that this could be applied to the Donbass situation. In other words, Russia had every reason to believe a new offensive on Donbass was in the card.

   The most striking implication of Zelensky’s comments is that the war scare was made in the United States. To understand why Zelensky doesn’t think a war is imminent, we must go back to April when the first great scare of a Russian invasion occurred. The preceding year, Azerbaijan had demonstrated in its conflict with Armenia that Turkish and Israeli drones could smash entrenched positions and rout the defenders. The Atlantic Council, the eyrie of Washington’s Ukraine hawks, immediately noted the relevance of this demonstrated new capability to the frozen conflict in the Donbas.

   The new team at the White House, closely following a script announced by the Atlantic Council, declared that Crimea and the Donbas must be put back on the table. That meant, explained a Biden official, a “very extensive and almost constant focus on Ukraine from day one.” In the view of Democrats, Donald Trump had been a shameless appeaser of Putin; indeed, he was Putin’s puppet. This narrative, to be sure, was dubious in the extreme, as Trump the ostensible appeaser surrounded himself with advisors—H.R. McMaster, Mike Pompeo, Nikki Haley, James Mattis, and John Bolton—who regularly blasted Russia in scalding tones. But though the narrative may have been wrong, it was theirs. The Democrats believed it. Where Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken largely followed Trump’s line on China, they broke sharply with him over Ukraine.

   The Ukrainian government hailed the new administration and set forth a platform for the return of Donbas and Crimea. Then on April 3, 2021, Ukraine’s military announced on Facebook that military exercises would be conducted with five NATO powers in Ukraine’s eastern regions later in the year. “In particular,” it said, “defensive actions will be worked out, followed by an offensive in order to restore the state border and territorial integrity of a state that has been subjected to aggression by one of the hostile neighboring countries.”

   Russia’s callup of reserves—which both now and in April was interpreted by U.S. intelligence as reflecting plans for a gigantic invasion—was in direct response to these three important developments: a startling new demonstration of the effectiveness of drone-led offensive operations, a new U.S. posture toward Ukraine-related issues that was far more aggressive than Trump’s, and the declaration by Ukraine’s military that they were working on a plan to drive the Russians out of the occupied territories. When Biden said in December that the United States would not commit forces to Ukraine in the event of a war, it took the legs out from under this plan.

   The United States now vehemently denies that there was any idea of retaking the Donbas by force and that this is an invention of Russian propagandists. From the outside, it is impossible to know how far these plans advanced and how seriously they were taken, but to say that the Russians had no basis for thinking that something was afoot is clearly absurd. What is the explanation for the April 3 Facebook post by Ukraine’s military? Were they the unfortunate victims, like Joy Reid, of a malicious hack? If the Azerbaijani war had no military significance for the Donbas, why did the Atlantic Council argue that it did?

   1. Interesting article. Hendrickson indeed traces some of the thought that flowed from the Atlantic Council to the State Department. But his conclusions are much different than yours, in your comments here and elsewhere, mainly because three major players, Biden, Zelensky, and Putin, have each in their own ways put the kibosh on the Russian-invasion/NATO-military-response scenario that everyone is rightly worried about. Equally interesting, to me, was the history of how it was that the Donbas is rightly off Putin’s radar, both because Russia doesn’t have the troops required for an occupation and the Russian citizenry is opposed to such an occupation. Putin seems to be satisfied with the Minsk Agreement and wants to see it enforced in order to protect the Russophones in the eastern provinces.

      1. It is important to first let go off preconceived notions. US vs them, Russians, always end up in a Classical Greek style circular logic on anything foreign — barbarians were always barbarians, even when everybattemltbwas made to civilize them at the point of sword,

         We do same, albeit in a modern garb,

         Ukraine and US have actually consulted Croatian experience on ethnic cleansinh of Krayina region in 1995. Ukrainian plan sppears to be same. Positioning first paramilitary as small, terrorist style strike grouos to penetrate remote villages and committ the most cruel and preferably most graphic crimes aginst weak — elderly, children. Such news spreads fast — and the objective is to soread panic and make population flee.

         Drones may be ecfective against militaries that do not have airforce, hypersonic missiles or missile/drone defence.

         Therefore, Croatian style ethnic cleansing may not be effective — as Russia would tske action against Ukrainian forces and command, not play hide ans seek with Ukrainian paramilitaries and their Western special ops advisers.

         Crimea issue I hope we understand — what is stolen can be taken back. “Transfer” to Ukrainian administration from Russia by Soviet leader in 1953, was illegal, as it was based on no state decision, but an executive order. As a republic, Crimea had every right to remain in Soviet Union, the right Ukraine denied it having first taken Soviet constitution for it’s own secession.

         Legally, it was a theft. After Ukrainian independence, it was a violation of the terms under which a Soviet state claims independence. After coup in 2014, Ukraine declared itself free from various tresties with Russia. Meaning that Budimpest Agrerment was also nul and void — not Ukrainian decision what treaties to abandon and what treaties it considers sacred. In essencce, that left Ukraine without recignized borders with Russia.

         By agreeing to Minsk agreement Russia actually gave Ukraine a chance at recignized borders. Full implementation of Minsk, meant Ukraine taming over its border controls.

         By refusing Minsk — Ukraine is making it clear that it wants to resolve the status of border and minorities by war.

         But Ukraine is only one issue — Russia’s security guarantees are based in the presence of missile launchers in Eastern Europe.

         Rollback is required to 1997, when US signed Helsinki Final Act. That includes launchers in Romania and Bulgaria.

         Biden’s attempt to tamper things down in his last call to Putin was a somewhat childish act — giving some fuzzy promises, to insure that Russian written response is also tampered.

         While everyone is happy to keep on talking — Russia is moving stepwise towards cutting of unproductive endless talk,

         Once the response is published and it becomes public — we will know more.

         1. We should remember that Minsk 2 is backed by UN Security Council Resolution 2202(2015). Local autonomy should be no big deal, many other countries deal with it, including 39 European countries.

      2. The whole “occupation” idea, as I’ve argued incessantly everywhere, was a non-starter from the beginning. The consensus from people who know Russia pretty well is that Putin has no desire to “rebuild the Soviet Union.” And for all the reasons people cite about controlling Ukraine, he wouldn’t do it.

         What I’ve argued is that what he might do falls on a spectrum, from merely supporting the Donbass militias from across the border like was done in 2014, to crossing the border to directly support Donbass, to seizing some more territory outside Donbass (say, Odessa), to driving on Kiev and replacing the government there. But in all cases, my opinion has been that all this would be very temporary. Once Russia organized whatever local governments and militias are needed to protect the territories seized (no more than a third of Ukraine at best), Russia will go home. No “nation-building” nonsense like the US does. Russia doesn’t want the headache of an occupation.

         What people don’t understand is that the fact that Russia doesn’t want to occupy Ukraine doesn’t mean there won’t be a conflict. The US has every reason to want a conflict in Ukraine. The Ukrainian hard liners have every reason to want that. And there are so many factions inside Ukraine that any of them could start a conflict. There never was an “invasion” planned. What was planned is a reaction to the US and/or Ukraine starting another conflict. It was the US and NATO that ginned up the whole “invasion” story.

         So everyone has been focusing on the wrong questions about whether Putin will invade, or whether Putin wants to occupy Ukraine. As Scott Ritter points out, everyone is focused on “what will Putin do”. Except Putin is not a dictator. He’s not the sole one in charge in Russia. He has to answer to the other powerful members of the government.

         Russia has no interest in Ukraine except to get it to stop being a pain in the neck with its threats to the Russian-speaking citizens and Crimea and entering NATO. This whole crisis is on the US and NATO completely. Russia’s done nothing but prepare however which way it goes.

5. More evidence that Ukraine may be intending to attack Donbass – or at least continues to plan to do so.

   Luhansk: Kiev Training Special Troops to Attack Breakaway Regions, Deploys Drones
   https://sputniknews.com/20220213/luhansk-kiev-training-special-troops-to-attack-breakaway-regions-deploys-drones-1092989312.html

   “As we have reported earlier, units of the 79th Air Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian armed forces are being prepared for combat as a tactical airborne assault force to be deployed to the rear areas of the republic,” the spokesman said.

   Additionally, the Ukrainian forces have increased aerial reconnaissance using drones near the settlements of Sizoye and Bolotnoye, which are controlled by Kiev in Donbass in violation of the Minsk agreements, the spokesman noted.

6. It is my greatest hope that these talks are productive, fair and above board so that both sides can reach a comprehensive agreement. If each side can give a little, a successful arrangement should be made… NATO is the tricky part and the possible thorn in the ointment…NATO, by the nature of what it stands for and represents, expands…

   1. The Russians are dealing with vipers and they know it.

      1. Indeed, they are completely untrustworthy, you only have to look at the Iran nuclear deal.

7. The question absolutely no one asks: “What is the end game for the US/NATO if Russia does NOT invade Ukraine in like forever?”

   Second question: How many times does Russia have to state that it appears to them that the US wants a war in Ukraine before someone starts to ask why the US might actually want that and might actually be working to initiate it?

   Third question: Why am I the only one who asks such questions (aside from others like The Saker, Andrei Martyanov, and Bernhard)?

   Quoted from a post at The Saker:

   Russia is withdrawing diplomats from the Ukraine: According to Zakharova, ”We are making a conclusion that American and British colleagues are possibly aware of certain violent actions prepared in Ukraine that can seriously undermine security.” Fearing possible provocations by Kiev or third countries, we have indeed made a decision about some optimization of the staff at our missions in Ukraine.”

8. Interesting. I was pursuing a report that Ukrainian oligarchs were fleeing the country when I discovered airlines are stopping flights from overflying Ukraine due to the threatened “invasion”.

   Ukraine allocates $592m to maintain flights amid fears of invasion
   https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/13/airlines-divert-flights-from-ukraine-airspace-as-invasion-fears-grow

   Ukrainska Pravda: Mass cancellation of Ukraine flights from Feb. 14
   https://kyivindependent.com/national/ukrainska-pravda-mass-cancellation-of-ukraine-flights-from-feb-14/

   Aircraft traveling through Ukrainian airspace will no longer be insured by international insurance companies from Feb. 14, forcing flights to be grounded or canceled, according to Ukrainian publication Ukrainska Pravda.

   The outlet quoted information from unnamed sources in the aviation industry.

   Anatoliy Ivantsiv, head of Ukrainian insurance firm Expo, told Interfax that British reinsurance giant Lloyds announced it would temporarily cease all conflict risk insurance over Ukrainian airspace from Feb. 14.

9. This is a Google Translate translation of an article on the Ukrainian Pravda Web site. What do the oligarchs know that President Zelensky does not? The article also includes images of what appear to be flight path maps of the oligarchs.

   Oligarchs and businessmen leave Ukraine on charter flights
   Mykhailo Tkach, Kateryna Tyshchenko – Sunday, February 13, 2022, 8:30 p.m.
   https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2022/02/13/7323857/

   Ukrainian oligarchs and businessmen are leaving Ukraine on charter flights, with about 20 charters and private jets departing from Kyiv on Sunday alone.
   Source: Ukrainian Pravda

   Details: There have not been so many charters in 6 years of observations.

   Rinat Akhmetov and Borys Kolesnikov were among the charters and private planes that left Ukraine on Sunday.

   Kolesnikov later said in a comment to the UE that he was in Kyiv and was not going anywhere. According to him, the plane flew to Prague for maintenance.

   Private board for 50 people was also ordered by MP MP, millionaire Igor Abramovich.

   According to the UE, from two sources to the OPZZ and two people who were offered to leave, this board is to take relatives of fellow party members and Abramovich’s business partners from Kyiv to Vienna. UE asked him for comment.

   At the same time, according to the UE, although one of Akhmetov’s planes took off from Ukraine on Sunday, the oligarch himself left the country on January 30 on a flight to Zurich.

   On the same day, businessman Viktor Pinchuk left Ukraine.

   Businessman, People’s Deputy Vadym Novynsky left Ukraine on February 10 on a Kiev-Munich flight.

   On the same day, Oleksandr Yaroslavskyi went abroad, and his motorcade knocked him to death.

   On February 13, businessmen Andriy Stavnitser and Vadym Nesterenko left Ukraine, and on February 12, Vadym Stolar and Vasyl Khmelnytskyi left.

   Stavnitzer’s press service told the UE that he had flown on a business trip and would return to Ukraine one of these days.

   The Khmelnytsky press service told the UE that he had flown with the team to study and was to return to Ukraine on February 20. They added that this tour was planned for three months and Khmelnytsky’s children remain in Ukraine.

10. Some relevant points made by the Russians today in a briefing after the Putin-Biden phone call.

    Briefing by Aide to the President Yury Ushakov following a telephone conversation between Vladimir Putin and Joseph Biden
    http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67761

    Today’s conversation was held, as everyone knows, against the backdrop of an unprecedented push by US official to whip up hysteria over the allegedly imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine. Incidentally, in requesting that the telephone conversation be held today, instead of on Monday as it was previously scheduled, the US cited the likelihood of this catastrophic scenario.

    Similar requests for urgent conversations have been filed by other members of the Biden administration, who talked over the phone with many of their Russian colleagues yesterday and today. It was thus a coordinated effort to pump out hysteria about the “invasion,” which is now at its height.

    What else did I want to note? The Russian President went into equally great detail about the Ukrainian Government’s destructive policies aimed at sabotaging the Minsk Agreements, which have been ongoing for the previous eight years. He noted that the West did not exert enough pressure on Kiev to follow through on its commitments under the agreements. The President of Russia also highlighted the dangers of a militarized Ukraine and the on-going injections of cutting-edge weaponry, which the West has been steadfastly involved in and which has been encouraging the Ukrainian military to stage provocations both against Donbass and Crimea.

    Question: Can you tell us if today’s conversation has shed any light on US motives? If President Biden knew that he was going to talk to Vladimir Putin on the phone, why did he announce a Russian “invasion” on February 16, which shook the entire world?

    Is it possible that after the two heads of state have spoken today, President Biden can still set a new date for this “invasion” for tomorrow or the day after? Such a statement will only provoke further concerns globally. How are we supposed to interpret this?

    Yury Ushakov: You know very well that tensions have been stoked over our troops’ movements on Russian territory, albeit close to the Ukrainian border, for several months now. I agree completely that the whole situation has reached absurd levels in the past days and hours. But here are the facts: the US is stoking hysteria over our so-called planned Russian “invasion,” giving even the dates of this “invasion,” all the while working jointly with its allies to build up Ukraine’s “military muscle.” Significant funds are being allocated to modernize the Ukrainian armed forces, and more military instructors are being sent there. So, the “invasion” chorus is a backdrop to create opportunities for possible provocations by the Ukrainian military.

    This is our view of the situation.

11. The troop withdrawals and embassy evacs cost the local Ukrainian economies that host them.

    Its a mixed message, in part punishing Zelensky for speaking out but also declining to be tripwire fodder.

12. Large-scale movements of troops observed in Ukraine near DPR and LPR — Kremlin spokesman
    https://tass.com/politics/1402899

    But, in his words, “no less large-scale movements of Ukrainian troops, various army units are being observed in the border areas on Ukraine’s territory, in the zone bordering the self-proclaimed republics.”

13. Yeah, but don’t panic, they say… Right. So the US is the only one spreading panic, Zelensky?

    Ukraine police announces heavy security measures across country from February 14
    https://tass.com/world/1403123

14. Russian units near Ukraine moved into “attack positions,” U.S. official says
    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-ukraine-attack-by-end-week/

    The U.S. believes Russia will attack Ukraine by the end of the week, although it’s not yet certain what form it will take, the official
    said.

    So I guess the Russians pushed back their invasion a few days due to having to recover from the Super Bowl drinking.

15. Bernhard over at Moon debunks the “frozen ground” theory (that the Russians are waiting for the ground to freeze before “invading”.)

    The ‘Frozen Ground Theory’ And Other Ukraine War Nonsense
    https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/02/the-frozen-ground-theory-and-other-ukraine-war-nonsense.html#more

    This part is especially interesting.

    …the Atlantic Council’s script, Biden and Ukraine: A strategy for the new administration, which proposed an aggressive anti-Russian plan which the U.S. is now playing along. It was paid for by a Ukrainian oligarch:

    Finally, think tanks were contacted more than 1,100 times by Ukraine’s agents, and more than half of these were directed at one in particular: the Atlantic Council. This extraordinary outreach included multiple meetings with Atlantic Council scholars, like ex-U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, who has advocated for a more militarized approach to Russia amid the Ukraine crisis. Herbst recently told NPR that President Joe Biden should “send more weapons to Ukraine now. By all means, get additional U.S. and NATO forces up along Russia’s
    border.” Herbst was also at the center of an Atlantic Council kerfuffle last March, when he and 21 other Atlantic Council staff signed a letter opposing the work of two Atlantic Council colleagues who suggested a restraint-based approach to dealing with Russia.

    The Atlantic Council has also launched “UkraineAlert” which publishes daily pieces on deterring Russia. A recent article, “Survey: Western public backs stronger support for Ukraine against Russia,” notes the survey in question was commissioned by the Victor Pinchuk Foundation and Yalta European Strategy, which Pinchuk founded; however, the article does not mention that the foundation is a large contributor to the Atlantic Council, donating $250,000-499,000 a year, or that Pinchuk himself — the second wealthiest man in Ukraine — sits on the international advisory board of the Atlantic Council.

    The articles cited are here:
    Biden and Ukraine: A strategy for the new administration
    https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/biden-and-ukraine-a-strategy-for-the-new-administration/

    Ukrainian Lobbyists Mounted Unprecedented Campaign on U.S. Lawmakers in 2021
    https://theintercept.com/2022/02/11/ukraine-lobby-congress-russia/

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