The US is not backing down from claiming Russia is preparing to invade Ukraine despite Moscow’s repeated denials and Ukraine’s downplaying of the threat. On Friday, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan warned the threat of a Russian invasion is now “immediate” and said it could happen before the end of the Beijing Olympics, which are scheduled to conclude on February 20th.
Sullivan also warned Americans in Ukraine to leave within the next 48 hours and said the US military wouldn’t evacuate them if a war breaks out. Earlier in the day, PBS reported that US intelligence officials believed Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to invade, but Sullivan denied the report.
“We are not saying that a decision has been taken – that a final decision has been taken by President Putin. What we are saying is that, we have a sufficient level of concern based on what we are seeing on the ground,” he said.
Besides pointing to a Russian military presence in western Russia and Moscow’s drills in Belarus, Sullivan offered no evidence to back up his warning. In response, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova slammed the US claims as “misinformation.”
“The hysteria of the White House is more indicative than ever,” Zakharova said. “The Anglo-Saxons need a war. At any cost. Provocations, misinformation, and threats are a favorite method of solving their own problems.”
Russia has little to gain from invading Ukraine, but an escalation in the war in the eastern Donbas region is always possible, and the US is poised to blame Russia for any violence in the region, no matter who initiates it. Sullivan repeated the unsubstantiated claim that Russia might be plotting a “false flag” as a pretext for an invasion.
Also on Friday, the Kremlin said that Putin and Biden are set to hold a call on Saturday at Washington’s request. “Indeed, the US side requested a conversation with President Putin, and the talks of the two presidents are planned to take place tomorrow in the evening,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
White House Steps Up US Invasion Warnings
The Euros are staying in Kiev, reducing the chances of unilateral US action.
This seems unusually bold of the EU, but Ukraine war could lead to Russian gas turned-off. In the middle of winter yet.
Guess this was what Russophobes were complaining of when they said Russia was to dependent on Russian gas; the Euros not only have no stake in a real war with Russia but every incentive to avoid one.
Even without the natural gas dependency, Europe has no interest in a hot war on its doorstep and waves of Ukranian refugees.
US NATO was just there defending against Russia for EU military dole, not to defend against a real threat.
Soros leveraged this arrangement into a critical liability real good. Amazingly well played in fact.
Its Soros the evil one and idiot Biden will get us into WW3.
That pretty well sums it up, though I don’t like to diminish people but what you have said John seems fairly accurate…
Soros is evil and Biden is an idiot. No room for argument.
They’ll try but don’t have much to work with.
There’s piles and piles of tinder but its all wet.
Well, today NPR said “Putin has decided to invade”, apparently based on
something Jake Sullivan said, then five minutes later Sullivan says, “no, we don’t know that”. This reminds me of Bloomberg “accidentally” publishing a “Russia invades Ukraine” headline on their Web site.
It appears to me that there is an active media campaign going on to confuse the US electorate. Not just the usual propaganda, mind you, but
an effort to confuse the public as to whether the war has already started or will start within the next few days.
This is a degree of hysteria rising that beggars anything done during the
run up to the Iraq war. One wonders how this could be kept up if Russia
resolutely does not invade for the next month, six months, forever. It
implies that the US has decided there will be a war and it intends to start it within a very short time frame.
The Saker also says that he is concerned things are going to pop off in a very short time frame. Andrei Maryanov figures a false flag or provocation is due at any time now. I posted a comment on Andrei’s site about how both sides have warned about a false flag or other provocation and how that is very convenient for both sides. Both sides can now blame the other no matter what happens. We all know Russia will be blamed by the West and nothing Russia says will be considered.
So in essence, the war is (almost) a done deal, Russia will be blamed, the sanctions will be applied, Nordstream 2 will probably be canceled (unless Germany grows a pair), the EU economy will be devastated and forced to depend on the US, and the US domination of the EU will be confirmed for the next 25 years.
Well, it seems like something is going to pop, but what it is and how Russia will react to the provocation remains to be seen. In Georgia, Russia played it perfectly, leaving no doubt who was the aggressing party.
Perhaps the last minute tete a tetes with Schlotz and Macron are about that: “give us something to fight sanctions mandates with.”
Assuming there is money for all this. UNless it can be squeezed from European population.
US is spooking European public opinion into believing Russia will invade Ukraine, and NATO must help. European public opinion on the issue has bedn polled — and US is satisfied.
Europeans believe in NATO as a magic force in a way ancients believed in Gods, forces of nature. However, other than Poland, NO polled polulation in other European countries thinks that THEY should gett involved. Interesting.
This is a genius of propaganda — US gets a club to wield over reticent Germany, as publuc trusts NATO!
The objective is to put a tighter yoke on Germany. France is UK military partner already, and is no longer really interested in Europeanism, Macron constant noises notwithsranding.
The maneuver orchestrated by US and UK to send Ben Wallace, UK Defense Minister, with impeccable manners, a straight speaking military man, but respecrful, visiting WWII memorial in Russia, you get it. Likely brought a message from Biden.
Thus a phone call. Biden following up on Wallace. But nothing will change.
Russia will most politely agree to anything friendly, give assurances on Ukraine, agree to whatever process leading nowhere US recommends. That costs nothing — US will not let go of the Ukrainian goose.
But a written reply from Russia is in the works.
No Russian objectives are adressed, some proposed concessions are a joke, an amareur can see through.
It is likely that Russia’s reply will not be to US liking. Russia will pursue any positive paths and keep communications open. But Russia will reserve the right to address the security issue by different means. The only question remaining is — will Russia immediatelly announce its next steps or not.
In the current environment, not immediatelly escallating may take the fever out of Ukraine. May be not,
But there are arguments in favor of escallating, and in a very different direction. Ukraine as a primary target can be taken off the headlines, should something else take its place. In which case US aggitating in Ukraine can be seen as retaliation, not defending poor Ukraine.
One thing is SURE. Russia is not dropping its security conditions.
With US making it clear that Ukraine is it — Russia has an advantage. There are other levers of power it can use to make Ukraine just one of many possibilities.
All European countries that so happily host Us offensive weapons are targets. Romania, Poland and Baltics. Those launcers must be dismantled, not searching where Tomohawk missiles are hidden.
Will US go to war with Russia for that? Will NATO remain united over that?
And one can bet in China entering the fray, including its sanctions. US market is not crucial to its economy. Will it come to that?
European security must be reimagined. US must save face, as Germany, US ally, can take the lead in Eu/NATO matters, and agree with Russia on Europe-Russia mutual security.
If that does not happen, fortress Europe will become an Eurasian appendix with no useful purpose.
Chinese ancient curse is upon us — may we live in interesting times.
…And we do, certainly, “live in interesting times” but very scary times.. To my mind, it all really feels like a big global shake-up…
It’s almost as if we know the exact minute of the planned event. But that would only be true if …
But the whole world is watching. This ain’t no Gulf of Tonkin … thousands of cameras on all sides are photographing everything. Are they still going to attempt it and count on the MSM to sell it to the western public?
Well, if something happens in some village in Ukraine near the contact line, who’s going to be there to see it? Or even in the middle of Kiev? And yes, the MSM will sell anything the US tells it to. It’s a done deal that whatever happens “Russia did it.”
Yup, but I’m sure Russia is looking out for little things and will not overreact. No, the provocation will need to be significant, something that may change the balance of forces in Donbas … that’s the only time Russia will need to act. But such a major move will be obvious as well.
I remain worried; but I don’t think they can pull it off w/o good notice. The MSM can try to cover it up, of course, so it’ll need to be incontrovertible evidence.
The biggest thing is to watch France and Germany … are they really going to continue their abject satraphood to the declining empire?
Yes, the provocation needs to be significant. But it’s cause doesn’t need to be plainly visible. Take a chemical attack. You just need a truck outside a city and the right wind conditions. Same for a dirty bomb. Then if it starts a conflict, the provocation scene will be compromised and even after the conflict ends, the evidence may be erased. It’s one thing to see it happen, another to prove it happened if it wasn’t recorded.
Look at the Douma nerve gas attack. Plenty of investigations – Syria still got blamed. The whistleblowers got sidetracked and Aaron Mate’s work on it is ignored.
See, even a Douma style chem attack is not a militarily significant event that need force Russia to send the troops in. They need to be disciplined and not reactive and make sure enough reporters are flooded to the zone so that the facts have a chance to emerge, online at least.
Douma only killed 70 people. A chemical attack done properly could kill many more. But the death toll doesn’t even matter. Just the fact that it was an alleged Russian or Donbass militia chemical attack might be enough to convince Ukraine to launch an offensive. Also depends on whether the attack is on Donbass or an attack on the Ukraine side blamed on Donbass.
Second, who says any “reporters” can go in. If the scene is sealed off by the authorities – say, if it was in a Ukraine-controlled city – or only pre-vetted “reporters” were allowed in, the narrative will be controlled. Certainly it could be controlled long enough to get the reaction the plotters want.
The point of a provocation will be to get a Russian or Donbass militia attack. Presumably it will be calibrated to do so. Might fail, but we can’t assume that.
That is a crime.
And of course that reduces the odds of anything being seen (except by the Russian AISR surveillance), not that the OSCE has been particularly useful for the last seven years. Other countries are expected to follow.
US to Pull Out its OSCE Mission Staff from Ukraine
https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/3470921/us-pull-out-its-osce-mission-staff-ukraine
Lie, Lie, Lie in order to make profit for MIC…!
Does anyone honestly not remember dipshit’s infamous “Just give me 24 to 36 hours…” line?
Like, really?
Well, at least Putin and Biden will be talking. I want these rumblings of possible warfare to subside. It has me very nervous as any kind of conflict between two super powers can escalate beyond points of control…
One can see how easily a situation like this could get out of control…
Whether the US/UK/NATO verbally and materially declare war against Russia and China with a Ukraine op against the Donbass is relatively unimportant. We know it’s forthcoming.
The Russians will view it as a de facto declaration which makes the US’ Syrian operations more vulnerable for their troops. A week or so ago, the Russian Navy moved more ships into the Med. They aren’t necessarily headed to their naval base at Tartus, Syria.
The Russian are choosing their targets, which have Italians and Spaniards focused on diplomacy and the US Navy’s local presence.
Multiple Russian missile launches in a first strike on American soil could save the lives of millions of Europeans. Do they really want to remain as US vassals whatever the war and subsequent economic scenario?
I think they’re too far gone.
Western instructors completed mission in Ukraine – Russian Foreign Ministry
https://tass.com/politics/1402439
I can see Russia invading if Ukraine ramps up the killing of its own citizens in Donbass. Call it R2P! (It worked for Libya.)
Russia’s #1 hands-down best play right now is to stage their own ‘false false-flag incident’, complete with crisis actors and destroyed equipment and copious radio intercepts and reports to prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that a ‘flase flag’ operation was staged by the US- I mean, ‘the West’- to provoke an invasion of the Ukraine. If they do it well enough and pull it off, no war results, and any subsequent ‘incident’ will immediately be scrutinized. It gives the US the incident they want so badly, and Russia doesn’t take the bait- which is theirs. The fun part is if the Ukraine believes it and attacks Russia, it’s game on and Russia has a green light to defend itself very aggressively, much like a certain nation in the Middle East.
Meanwhile, here is how the US is further antagonizing Russia.
Anyone remember the movie “The Bedford Incident”? I’ve seen it.
The Bedford Incident
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Bedford_Incident
U.S. Sends Nuclear Submarine To Harass Russia Near Japan
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/02/us-sends-nuclear-submarine-to-harass-russia-near-japan.html#more
Russia hands note to US military attache over submarine incident near Kuril Islands
https://tass.com/defense/1402297
Now there’s an accident waiting to happen…
This is certainly some scary sh-t!!!-donna/peace chic
Blast near contact line could be set off during shooting of provocations – DPR head
https://tass.com/world/1402421
Re what I said about a media campaign to confuse the public about what is actually going on?
Check this out. I don’t know what the hell this is about, but it seems to be an attempt to explain away why Russia hasn’t “invaded” yet. Apparently this alleged “report” has been circulating around on the Internet and someone caught it. Of course, probably anyone could have done it. But it feeds the dominant narrative. As an aside, I can’t actually find an image of the screenshot using Google search or Google Image search.
CNN screenshot altered to add fake chyron about Putin and Biden
https://news.antiwar.com/2022/02/11/white-house-steps-up-russian-invasion-warnings-says-americans-should-leave-ukraine-within-48-hours/
Fact Check-Screenshot of CNN news report about Biden and Russia has been digitally altered
https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-cnn-chyron/fact-check-screenshot-of-cnn-news-report-about-biden-and-russia-has-been-digitally-altered-idUSL1N2UN0FU
https://military.pravda.ru/news/1682422-blacksea/
Russia’s strike force in the Black Sea. A rather eye-popping list.
The lives of North Americans, Europeans, and Ukrainians are in Joe Biden’s hands.
That just ruined my day!