Israel Claims Iran Nuclear Breakout Time Is 4-6 Months

Latest dubious estimate is based on US returning to nuclear deal

Israel has been predicting imminent nuclear breakouts by Iran for a solid 40 years, never accurately. The latest not true breakout, according to Israeli officials, is 4-6 months.

Setting breakout dates is a way for Israel, and other hawks, to overstate the threat, and almost always comes with calls to attack Iran militarily before they reach breakout. Since they never reach breakout the whole thing is purely for narrative’s sake.

Even then, the claims are getting less reasonable all the time. Israeli officials qualified this claim as based on the US returning to the nuclear deal with Iran, because that’s something the Israelis are always trying to warn the US away from. US Senators are dutifully calling Israel’s warnings “red flags” and suggesting they may oppose the deal.

Yet a return to the nuclear deal shouldn’t change anything in practice, with Iran not enriching any uranium up to weapons-grade, and having ruled out attempting to make nuclear arms many years ago.

Indeed, negotiations on the deal are so slow that even getting it back in place in 4-6 months would be an accomplishment. Beyond that any changes at all are highly unlikely.

Author: Jason Ditz

Jason Ditz is senior editor of