Throughout much of Syria, the Syrian War is virtually over. While final settlements in the north are still to be decided on, the Assad government has survived the war, and is looking to make post-war overtures.
The war didn’t go how the US hoped, and to that end a group of bipartisan lawmakers are urging Biden to undermine Syrian attempts to normalize ties, and threaten “consequences” for any nation that restores ties with them.
That’ll be easier said than done for nations with something to gain from Syria ties, though US allied nations like Saudi Arabia were probably going to be late to the game in return to pre-war diplomacy with them.
The bigger challenge is going to be international bodies. Syria was suspended from the Arab League during the war, but with the war over it would be strange for them not to return as a member.
Always, always, always – the Israelis.
There is one reason US must stay relevant in the Midfle East, especially Levant. Israel. US presence in the region is the key for the completion of still unfinished projects — removal of Palestinians from their lands, and shoving them into a few gettos. US presence is required to continually keep the region in turmoil, insuring that no state has the power and focus on Israel. And the added advantage of keping up tensions, funding and arming various militants is a long term potential for Israel’s expansion.
But the reality is less than ideal. Turkey has opposed US efforts at setting up Kurd autonomous regions in Syria, Iraq or Iran — as those were the direct expansion of Turkish Kurd PKK. Of course PKK is Western creation, designed to undermine Turkey both militarily and politically. Turkey has also objected to Israeli pipeline, to take gas from Leviathan field to Greece than to Europe via EU funded network of pipelines accross Balkans to Central and Western Europe. Turkey was to be bypasses. As Turkey is already shipling Russian and Azeri gas from Turk Stream into the same pileline network — Turkey objected aling with Libya. Between the two they share the control of Mediterranean Shelf.
Syria is at present under effective control of the government. The collection of clans in Idlib has crased military operations, and only small hard core, Western supported HTS remains unreconciled to the peace. But it has been boxed in.
In the north, a sliver of an oil field is guarded by some Kurds and few hundred of American forces. The largest contingent of US forces is in Al-Tanf US base close to Jordanian border. None of these pockets are revant to Syria’s recovery.
Thus here we are. If Syrian government cannot be controlled, and if other Arab countries are reopening embassies — what can we do? Continue threatening anyone that would help them normalize its trade and transport.
But US has a problem in Iraq, and sooner or later it will have to exit. Israel will object -/ fight tooth and nail. This is why Iranian case is remain forever active — allowing Iran to be integrated into Levant-Gulf region, would end up placing Israel into an absolute margin. And having developed no friends and allies, and without US umbrella in the region, it would be impossible to stay on task domestically and hope for expansion.
Let us not forget the vicious attack taking place on both Turkish and Lebanese banks and currencies, Both countries economies are still dependent on dollars and euros, and are easily undermined.
But things are changing. US is simultaneously kicking Turkey and giving concessions. First concession Biden gave — albeit in a convoluted fashion — is withdrawing support from East Med pipeline. Is it for real, or tactical — we will see. But two results are already here :
One, Turkey has cemented its strategic view of US as an enemy. Any concessions are viewed as a carrots for some major concessions. And concessions are now more likely to elicit more pressure, not less, Two, Israel has received a tough message. That its interests — even temporarily and tactically, are dispensable. US bigger picture goals can diminish committment to Israel.
Thus, US can remain forever spoiling the region’s chances for economic development. But Israel is nkt happy.
The main culprit is Russia, Russian misdile defence in Turkey, Russia-Turkey energy cooperation, nuclear power plant, weapons coproduction, collaboration in Syria, Libya, Qatar, Afghanistan. No coincidence that Qatar-Turkish plan for the management of Afghanistan airports is under consideration.
Russia, Iraq and Iran have joint intelligence sharing center in Baghdad. Saudi Arabia and Egypt jouned Russia-China led Sgangbai Cooperation Oranuzation. UAE and Rusdia just announced a colroduction of the new SU-75 in UAE, that is frying to develop technolgically and away from oil.
Needless to say, UAE has bern put on the watch list for — money laundering! Shock of the century. That was its main function in “not asking questions” in European-Asian trade. London financial hub would not survive without such services, and thise fabulous buildings are made of this money tree.
But now that UAE is opening embassyy in Syria, saved Turkish lira by capital injection, and having Russian military connection — now UAE is under scrutiny,
And after a prolonged crisis in Lebanon — US is not yet any closer to controlling it. Or its former colonial master France.
But while routinelly attacking Russia verbally and getting hardware close to its borders — US now finds itself being confronted by Russia. Publicly and in writing.
This is a new dynamic. Fir now regurgitation of old slogans and Ukrainian story — is sufficient. Or it appears so, What will happen when Russia moves in order to get some more serious attention.
None of the moves — such as military moves or political moves initiated by Russia are incidental,
Israel’s influence over US foreiign policy is string — no news there. It is quite possible that the move in Kazakhstan has been an attempt at getting old guard clans with British and US connections a shot at catching Tokayev off guard. And in the process having him lose control over key institutions and infrastructure. And being forced to give power over to the clans benefiting from the chaos,
Tokayev however, having received goid advice called in CSTO, and the attempt was crushed, ine can expect the dual rule ending, as it did in Turkey following the aborted coup.
If I’m from Syria I have to be wondering at what point in history did my country do something so fucking terrible to the US that they won’t be happy until every last one of us is fucking dead.
war r u.s.,
You annoyed the Israelis.