The latest Russia-brokered ceasefire in Daraa al-Balad appears to be holding, with Syrian troops entering the rebel-held area and have setting up positions around the area, as per the deal’s terms.
The troops are to raid the homes of opposition leaders, and register the people still in the city. The Syrian military raised the flag over the area, and have declared it “free of terrorism.”
This was the latest of several ceasefire deals, all the others of which collapsed almost immediately. The latest deal certainly seems to be in better shape, but history has taught everyone to be cautious against declaring success.
Daraa al-Balad was one of the first rebel-held territories in the Syrian War, and one of the last holdouts. The initial deal on this was meant to see the rebels move northward to Idlib, though instead it lead to an ugly, protracted siege.
This is Good News
Indeed it is.
The real significance is — the region borders Israel, and the rebels were helped from Israel. Ambulances used to come from Israel to transport wounded warriors. But local Druze population did not like it, and was stoning ambulances.
Peace deals Russia cut with militants was a way to put the conflict on hold. There were many more important goals — getting US out from 1/3 of the country, eliminate Kurdish secession, eliminate major smuggling route from Turkish Kurds across Afrin to Idlib, eliminating ISIS, patrolling Syria-Turkey border beyond Euphrates, freeing up electric dam, pushing Idlib past critical highways, Blocking HTS from pushing refugees into Turkey.
At this point, no Arab money is supporting militants in Syria. And Dara’a had to wrap up its operations. Some would have preferred to remain “opposition” in order to get special status in constitution. But majority of population would not vote for them.
Sp, time for divorce. Foreign fighters go to Idlib, others stay at home. To Israel, they have no longer any utility.
In Idlib, HTS has been quiet. White Helmets apparently evacuated. To be reinvented somewhere else.