As the US is pulling out of Afghanistan, Western media has been full of stories warning that the Afghan government will collapse shortly after the US leaves. On Wednesday, The Wall Street Journal cited anonymous officials who said US intelligence assessed that Kabul could fall within six to 12 months of a US pullout.
While mainstream media reports citing anonymous officials are not the most trustworthy sources, the story is notable because hawks want to use what they see as an inevitable collapse of the Afghan government as a reason for the US to stay and prolong the war. But the fact the Afghan government is ready to fall after almost 20 years of the US funneling money into building it up demonstrates the futility of the war and is a better argument for why the US must get out.
The Journal report said US intelligence updated a more positive assessment based on recent gains by the Taliban. The Pentagon has suggested that it could slow the “pace” of its withdrawal due to recent Taliban advancements. But a prolonged US presence would only incentivize the Taliban to launch more attacks, and it would put US troops in danger. Since the US-Taliban peace deal was signed in Doha in February 2020, no US troops have died in combat in Afghanistan.
The optics of the US withdrawing as the Taliban is making large gains does not look good for Washington. President Biden created the current situation by pushing back the original May 1st withdrawal deadline to September 11th. Before May, violence was raging, but the Taliban had not made moves to take such significant territory.
Pushing back the withdrawal also delayed potential intra-Afghan peace talks. The chance of the Taliban and Kabul finding a diplomatic solution may be small, but the one thing that guarantees it won’t happen is a continued US presence. The US’s post-withdrawal plans to have Turkish troops guard the Kabul airport might also fuel more violence since the Taliban see a continued foreign presence as a violation of the Doha agreement.
Six months? Someone check the evidence locker, some hopium appears to have gone missing.
The timescale is probably invented for the sound bite – intended to make the situation sound dangerous, but reversible. Like when environmentalists say we have 10 years to stop global warming – it is nothing to do with science, everything to do with politics. The tipping point will always be ten years away, and Kabul will fall at any moment, but not in 6 months.
Imagine how demoralizing it must be for a veteran that is permanently wounded from the Iraq or Afghanistan wars to know you were sent there under false pretenses and the governments in power there are now even more anti-American than before the invasions.
Your maiming and the deaths of your fellow servicemen were all for nothing.
Perhaps that is why suicide has killed far more troops than enemy actions.
No way. BTW the deaths there are minimal compared to the “for nothing” deaths in Vietnam.
Could Kabul also rise?
Afghanistan never had a true central government, in the thousand years it has been known since the Silk Road days. It has always been a collection of localities that get along only as mutual protection from outsiders.
Nothing in its geography or economy has changed to change that fundamental.
The US “government in a box” installed as a central government never actually governed anything. It was a puppet, a tool for sake of appearances. Now it will evaporate, sooner than later, as the foreign funding and foreign protection forces disappear.
This was all described in The Great Game, by Peter Hopkirk, one of which uses the opening line that the situation he outlined for 1807 describes today just as well.
The Afghans will be playing buzkashi with the heads of the present US installed government by the end of the week after the US pulls out.
The West never had a chance on replacing the 5000 year old Afghani system by force of arms or by Dominion voting machines, the entire 20 years of conflict was a cash cow for those who really control America.
How can they continue to claim that they’re an intelligence organisation when history reveals they’re not able to provide evidence for their claims.
In science. economics and especially the weather it is the educated ‘best guess’ of the most politically connected guy in the room.
The reason why they’re still in Afghanistan is because that serves the long term agenda of the Deep State – nothing to do with anyone’s best guess – [Remember the Taliban offered to hand over OBL to the US – on one condition – They had to prove the charges made against him]
That Intelligence fails to live up to the role that it is really meant to perform is crystal clear to see – they’re not uncovering truth…they’re hiding it behind a curtain of smoke and mirrors.
When one thinks of the death and injury our soldiers suffered, “keeping us safe from enemies”, the weight of it is almost unbearable. How can our young trust that their precious lives will not be squandered for filthy lucre? How can they chose, when trust is so blatantly abused?
I blame congress for allowing our troops to remain there for 20+ years for no good reason.
The MIC lobbyists are the real snake in all of this. By maintaining military related manufacturing in all 50 states with good paying jobs and control of the MSM who serve as their ad agencies, the 401K funds which Moms and Pops retirement is invested, they have a pretty good stranglehold on our leadership and are able to exploit and embellish worldwide events where no problem really exists and for which the U.S. should have no part of.
If only our national drive towards destructive ends could be beneficial. I would rather see factory ships cleaning up the worlds oceans than another aircraft carrier, space planes and cargo craft cleaning up the increasing space junk than more jets, tanks and bombs. Fisheries and forestry need a boost before another 40,000 lb. bomb is detonated to see if our $10B aircraft carrier will sink.
The problem is there is no obsene profits beating swords into plowshares and for that we find ourselves with ridiculous defence budgets and looking for reasons to spend more.
Truely this nations priorities are serving of the few and not for the general welfare of our future generations.
Would those “anonymous sources” happen to be the companies making a fortune supplying arms and war-making material to the D.O.D.? How many trillion have we wasted there so far?
The future is a dual reign of terror. Radical Islamic Taliban will terrorize on the ground. US drones will terrorize from the sky.