The Biden administration is currently reviewing many US policies, including those geared towards China. One policy concerns growing calls for Biden to change the “strategic ambiguity” the US maintains concerning Taiwan and a possible Chinese invasion.
The strategic ambiguity means it’s not clear if the US would intervene if China moves to take Taiwan. But since 1979, when the US severed diplomatic ties with Taipei, the US has provided the island with weapons. In 2020 alone, the US announced over $5 billion in arms sales to Taiwan.
China hawks in Congress want Biden to change the Taiwan policy to a “strategic clarity” and commit to going to war for the island. Even though the new administration is taking a hawkish approach to China, Biden officials seem hesitant to change the Taiwan policy.
Kurt Campbell, the policy coordinator for the Indo-Pacific on the National Security Council, said on Tuesday that the US has an interest in keeping the ambiguity. “I believe that there are some significant downsides to the kind of what is called strategic clarity,” he said.
Last week, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said changing the policy would send the wrong signal to China. “From our perspective, if we were to see a US shift from strategic ambiguity, as you’ve identified it, to clarity over a willingness to intervene in a Taiwan contingency, the Chinese would find this deeply destabilizing,” she said.
While President Biden might not commit to going to war for Taiwan, his administration is taking steps to boost diplomatic ties with the island. In April, the State Department announced a new policy to “encourage” more contacts between US and Taiwanese officials.
US military officials have been hyping the threat of a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan to justify more military spending for the region. Much has been made out of Chinese military flights through Taiwan’s air defense identification zone, although these flights are usually far from the island of Taiwan and have a direct correlation with the increase in US activity in the region.
Clarify indeed, that we will not go to war over Taiwan, and if we must be underhanded about it then go to war over it anyway, like we did over Kuwait in the gulf war.
I am not a fan of letting China crush and absorb Taiwan, but this is a stance that should have been established decades ago. Admitting to a “one China policy” ensured that one day, China would and will act militarily.
Britain committed to defend Poland and look what happened to both- Britain was almost crushed by Germany while Poland was left to be overrun and eventually handed on a silver platter to the Soviet Union. If we commit to defend Taiwan we’ll get the smack down laid on us and Taiwan will still go to China in the end. Other than the MIC getting rich(er), there’s no upside for the US.
Who is making these “growing calls”? Are they complete lunatics? Do they not realize we are talking about a peer military power here? This ain’t Vietnam and Iraq any more kiddies, this is China … in its own backyard.
The only reason Taiwan has been allowed to remain free is because of this exact ambiguity. Are these people so cruel?
The reason Taiwan is allowed to remain as is, is because China did not want to impose their will on the Taiwanese promised a “One Country two systems” principle. This failed in Hong Kong because the West openly visibly attempted to subvert it.
When Chiang Kai Shek was forced to retreat to Taiwan, his claim that he was the leader of all of China (including the present day Mongolia) was accepted by the West which had supported him in his war against the Communists.
That has been a clear Chinese red line since Nixon met Mao and made that deal.
Doing that would be declaring war.
Really? China seems in no hurry to attack Taiwan. They’ve heavily infiltrated it with spies and use it to steal American technology. They have no incentive to start a war. Surely America officially taking sides with Taiwan would be deeply offensive to them – but provoking a war? I doubt it.
The reason US hesitates is that any official defense pact between Taiwan and US would immediately force China’s hand and they would start the process of militarily taking Taiwan back within hours.
No way China will give US the time it would need to build army, airforce and naval bases all over Taiwan.
Starting the process and achieving the goal are two entirely different things.
The Beijing regime doesn’t really need to fear a US invasion of the mainland. That would quickly go south on the US, and even US military planners aren’t stupid enough to think otherwise. But any resolution of such an affair would almost certainly end, at a minimum, with the US navy severely damaged and Beijing’s navy non-existent.