Taliban Controls 52% of Afghanistan’s Territory

Afghan Govt controls 59% of population

With hopes that the 2020 US peace deal and intra-Afghan peace talks might ultimately end decades of war, some uncomfortable facts remain, raising the question of who controls Afghanistan anymore.

The US would insist the Ghani government is the lawfully elected government there, but the facts on the ground show that the Taliban physically control 52% of the country, compared to only 48% in government hands.

That’s a staggering amount when one considers that the Taliban has been fighting 20 solid years of war with both the would-be government and NATO. It would be hard to imagine that people living in Taliban territory wouldn’t feel that the Taliban, who was the Afghan government before the 2001 invasion, is effectively still in charge.

The Ghani government has focused mostly on densely populated areas, and argues they control 59% of the population. Yet Afghanistan is not a nation of cities by and large, but a rural country with a lot of natural resources and farms. Controlling physical land is ultimately more important to the country’s future.

This has been the case for some time, with the Taliban having retained important parts of the country, particularly in the south and southwest.

Author: Jason Ditz

Jason Ditz is Senior Editor for Antiwar.com. He has 20 years of experience in foreign policy research and his work has appeared in The American Conservative, Responsible Statecraft, Forbes, Toronto Star, Minneapolis Star-Tribune, Providence Journal, Washington Times, and the Detroit Free Press. View all posts by Jason Ditz

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4 thoughts on “Taliban Controls 52% of Afghanistan’s Territory”

richardvajs says:

February 15, 2021 at 8:57 am

Has there ever been a rational reason as to WHY, we need to stay in Afghanistan? A reason that doesn’t depend upon glorification of spent resources?
1. Don Bacon says:
  
  February 15, 2021 at 4:10 pm
  
  The main reason the US has been there is Afghanistan’s key position in Central Asia. Some US senators decades ago after the Soviet fall came up with a “Silk Road” strategy to gain US influence in that region. Especially up in Kazakhstan, a large country just south of Russia, but also in the other -stans, the US brought in the Chamber of Commerce and USAid to provide training and support for industrial progress, jobs that should have stayed in the US. There was also talk of an energy pipeline.
  Then after 9/11 the US came up with the regime change idea for Afghanistan, the ‘keystone’ to Central Asian countries, to keep it from becoming a safe have for terrorists and other BS like that. That’s why the US was there.
  Why the US is still there is politics, never pull out unless it’s forced. US military presence somewhere is like diamonds, forever.
  The ongoing mission of the US military is to defend the country AND US interests everywhere and anywhere in the world, maintaining stability and freedom blah blah blah. The banks and corporations require no less.
Don Bacon says:

February 15, 2021 at 4:49 pm

The Taliban has conducted winter offensives before, when there were more US troops, and now . . .
NYTimes, Feb 15, 2021
The Taliban Close In on Afghan Cities, Pushing the Country to the Brink

The Taliban have positioned themselves around several major population centers, including the capital of Kandahar Province, as the Biden administration weighs whether to withdraw or to stay.
Around the northern city of Kunduz, despite the winter’s fierce cold, the Taliban have taken outposts and military bases, using small armed drones to terrorize Afghan troops. In neighboring Pul-i-Khumri, they have seized important highways in a stranglehold of the city, threatening main lifelines to Kabul, the country’s capital.
And in the city of Kandahar, a bedrock of historic and political importance and an economic hub for the country’s south, Taliban fighters have pummeled the surrounding districts, and moved closer to taking the provincial capital than they have in more than a decade. . .here
Don Bacon says:

February 15, 2021 at 12:45 pm

The US-Taliban Agreement itself is an indicator that the Taliban will soon be in charge of the country. The US puppet government was not a part of the agreement, and is not mentioned. There are several paragraphs of the Agreement which reinforce that concept, including that the US will not recognize the Taliban government as a state (so what).

3. The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan which is not recognized by the United States as a state and is known as the Taliban will prevent any group or individual in Afghanistan from threatening the security of the United States and its allies, and will prevent them from recruiting, training, and fundraising and will not host them in accordance with the commitments in this agreement.
4. The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan which is not recognized by the United States as a state and is known as the Taliban is committed to deal with those seeking asylum or residence in Afghanistan according to international migration law and the commitments of this agreement, so that such persons do not pose a threat to the security of the United States and its allies.
5. The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan which is not recognized by the United States as a state and is known as the Taliban will not provide visas, passports, travel permits, or other legal documents to those who pose a threat to the security of the United States and its allies to enter Afghanistan. . .here

…my bolding

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