In a potentially huge escalation in the region, the rebel Tigray forces in northern Ethiopia fired missiles at the Eritrean capital of Asmara. They said this was the only Eritrean city that was targeted, though cities in Ethiopia were also reported hit.
With bloody fighting already on the rise in Ethiopia, Tigray officials now claim Eritrean troops have crossed the border into their territory. They said the missile fire is retaliation for crossing the border.
Tigray’s regional president Gebremichael confirmed missile fire, saying that they consider Eritrea a legitimate military target as long as they have troops on their side of the border. Tigray officials also accused Ethiopia of using UAE drones against them.
The potential involvement of Eritrea in this fight would greatly complicate matters in Tigray. Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed is downplaying this, saying he is confident the military can handle Tigray operations by itself.
Eritrea and Ethiopia are not on the best of terms, and Ethiopia almost certainly wouldn’t officially allow it. The flareup of violence around Tigray is a concern for the whole region, especially if it spills across the border.
Let’s be very clear: anyone smeared by the Westernaganda as an “unhinged dictator” and his country called “Africa’s North Korea” cannot be a bad guy. If you don’t know who I’m talking about, that’s Isaias Afwerki of Eritrea. Now Eritrea lost tens of thousands of people, both soldiers and civilians, fighting off the Meles Zenawi TPLF regime aggression from 1998 that only formally ended after the fall of the TPLF regime in 2018. There is absolutely no way Eritrea is ever going to permit another TPLF regime to take power in Ethiopia again. If that means allying with Afwerki’s new bosom buddy Abiy Ahmed (oh yes they are on the best of terms, the Eritrean embassy in Addis Ababa tweeted mocking the TPLF) and intervening on the Ethiopian government side, so be it. It wouldn’t be surprising for the Eritreans to intervene against the TPLF; after what Eritrea underwent at the hands of the TPLF regime, it would be astonishing if it did not.
I notice that the Ethiopian tactics are the same as those followed by the Azeris in Nagorno Karabakh: attack the lowlands, cut off the mountainous enemy strongholds from resupply and reinforcement, and then attrition them to defeat. Though the TPLF is a lot stronger than the so called Artsakh army, with Eritrea on the Ethiopian side I believe that the TPLF’s fate will be the same.