Iraqi Premier Mustafa Kadhimi came out of his recent visit to the United States with talk of a US drawdown and potential outright pullout from the country. As it stands today, Iraqi officials are expressing real concern that the United States could be about to start yet another war in the country.
All of the uncomfortable signs are there. The US has been threatening to close its Iraq embassy, and is making preparations to evacuate diplomats over the recent rocket attacks in the vicinity of the site.
The threat to close the site comes with the usual bells and whistles, and ultimatums, about how unhappy the US is with the Iraqi government. Talk of the Shi’ite militias responsible being in league with Iran also makes this a potential proxy war, one the US has oft-threatened.
This isn’t just Iraqis’ imagination. Last week the US carried out its first aircraft carrier-launched airstrikes since early 2018 against Iraq. The talk since then is that the US is “furious” and looking to take further action. The embassy closure would just be another step toward whatever is planned.
Kadhimi is trying to muster his allies to resist the momentum toward war. Yet hopes of using leverage to stop the Shi’ite militias may not work to calm the situation if the US believes they can just double down on demands against them.
It is well-known that Iraq’s biggest geopolitical fear is hosting a US-Iran war, and the US has seemed on the cusp of starting such a war several times in the past two years. The fact that the US bellicosity picks up near elections makes the timing bad, and US struggles to differentiate between Iran and Shi’ite militias means they can have their war with Iran without ever leaving Iraq.
Hiw do you eliminate Shia soldiers in a country that is 65% Shia, others Sunni Arabs, Sunni Kurds and Christians.
This is absurdity. But how does one explain Iraqi-Iranian get togethers? Does it mean that US will have to fight Iran and Iraq?
Trump will not start a war with Iran — unless he thinks election is lost. Then, starting something. It is too risky. It is not just Iran — neither Russia nor China will want US in the Caspian.
Since US is not threatened by Iran — and all Iraq wants is troop removal — it does not look justified. But then obsession with Iran is inexplicable.
“The talk since then is that the US is “furious” and looking to take further action.”
Can you really blame us? After all the work we put into making Iraq one large cesspool over the last 30 years and all we get is them showing us absolutely no gratitude. Do they know how difficult it is to kill a million(at least)of their people, destroy their infrastructure and tell them who they can. or cannot, be allies with and spin it as something that they should appreciate? Some people are just ungrateful bastards.
I refuse to believe closing the “embassy” and withdrawing “diplomats” is a bad thing. It is a vast military base full of spies and extortionists in the heart of iraq’s capital that has long since lost any relevant or appropriate role.
But what if they’re just getting those “spies and extortionist” out of harms way before we do another “shock and awe”?
Could be, but I doubt it. And something has to give, with the us govt dictating iraqi policy. We won’t re-invade, and blowing up certain factions won’t get the us govt what it wants, unless I suppose a distraction from our election is the top foreign policy goal.