Heavy fighting Sunday in Nagorno-Karabakh is raising concern of a war which could quickly go regional. Turkey has vowed complete support for Azerbaijan in the conflict against Armenia over the long-disputed region.
Centuries of dispute have left Nagorno-Karabakha a modern faultline between regional Christians and Muslims. Turkey is backing the Muslim Azeris, while Russia is trying to calm the situation before the fighting gets too out of control for Armenia.
Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan criticized Turkey for its “aggressive behavior” and demanded that they stay out of the matter. Turkey and Armenia remain in a somewhat strained relationship from the Armenian genocide, which often leads to diplomatic disputes.
Turkey is a much larger military force than either Armenia or Azerbaijan, and would be a game-changer if they got directly involved. The danger is that any such involvement would be a dramatic escalation, with the conflict potentially crossing multiple borders.
Blah, Blah, Blah.
Turkey does have history with the Armenians.
The Turkey before this one over 100 years ago had a history with Armenians, which it “solved” by genocide and ethnic cleansing. It no longer has that old problem of “disloyal” Armenians inside Turkey acting in favor of great power rivals.
There is a big problem with this “vow” by Turkey — it is inconsistent with other vows by Turkey.
Azerbaijan is for Turkey an enemy of my enemy — that enemy being Armenia.
However, it is also an enemy of my friend, — those friends being Iran and Russia.
It is also a friend of my enemy — that enemy being Israel, which uses Azerbaijan against Iran, and strongly projects a lot more use of it.
So Turkey must balance many interests, located as it is in a crossroads of the World, and the overwhelming balance for Turkey is against Azerbaijan, save only for jerking around the Armenians. Therefore this “vow” is not likely to go further than that.
Russia will bury Turkey if they cross them.
Yes, Russia could. However, Russia and Turkey share the same mixed feelings about Azerbaijan, and they share a similar dislike of Armenia even if it is sometimes useful to Russia but always a pain to Turkey.
For Russia, Azerbaijan has long been used as a Western base to spy on Russia, and it takes a cut of the oil and gas in the Caspian that otherwise would be divided by Russia and Iran. It is a too-independent “former Soviet” space, in Russia’s view.
For Turkey, Azerbaijan is an American/Israeli base against Iran, in ways that trouble Turkey as much as Russia. It is only 22% Muslim, and not the Turkish sort of Muslim. It is enemy of my enemy (Armenia) for Turkey, but it keeps that enemy actively stirred up and hostile, and is constantly pulling in supporters like Israel and anti-Turkish Muslims from the Gulf that trouble Turkey as much as Azerbaijan. Israel uses Azerbaijan against Turkey, not just Iran, and any Armenia issues are just useful leverage in that.
As for Armenia, it is of course a running sore for Turkey, but for Russia too. While it chose Russian economic ties over the EU offer, the EU still pushes and threatens, which Armenia leverages for ever more demands for a better and better deal. While Armenia has political links with Russia, those links are now via conflicting kleptocrats constantly at each others’ throats. There have been repeated incidents producing very negative press. Armenia’s relations with Russia are unstable and threatening to turn against Russia or its kleptocratic elite, and the ever paranoid Russians just hate “unstable and threatening.”