The United Arab Emirates (UAE) made a surprise move Thursday by announcing a peace deal with Israel, which will include full normalization of ties. This is the first such agreement for Israel since 1994, when they reached a deal with Jordan.
Under the deal, Israel will temporarily put annexation of the occupied West Bank on hold. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insists that this is temporary, and that he still intends to carry out full annexation with the US endorsement.
Coalition partner Naftali Bennett was deeply critical of the move, praising the deal with the UAE but saying Netnayahu lacked the courage to annex the West Bank. Settler groups also panned Netanyahu as having ‘betrayed’ the settlers on annexation.
President Trump praised the move as a huge achievement. Other US officials suggest Israel had two opportunities, peace or annexation, and chose one, though it remains to be seen how long Israel can hold off the annexation without a far-right backlash.
It is a bad thing. UAE has a diminishing oil
reserves and is at mercy of global financial cartels. If they pull the plug, UAE Disney land for rich would return to desert.
But the key is — UAE and Iran hold the access through Straits of Hormuz. In fact, there are NO INTERNATIONAL WATERS there. No room for EEZ either. Just territorial waters. US must pass through UAE territorial waters to enter Persian Gulf. To let Israel have its embassy there with unfettered cargo coming in under diplomatic immunity is not wise. Trump should know better then to midwife such a creation. And it is a foregone conclusion that the Embassy will not be safe. UAE has profited handsomely through trade with Iran. I guess it is prepared to give it up.
This is not a good move for UAE, and must have involved some arm twisting.
what arm twisting they love israel they really do the leadership and israel has common enemy in iran andsunni political islam also this gives them a boost with their masters in us
There is no love or hate in those mercantile Gulf monarchies. There is only interest, both pecuniary and security. But UAE is in a very special category. It has to live of hype, high rollers are welcome. Cash machines dispensing gold.
But they do NOT want trouble. They are obliging and utter anti-Iranian slogans. But UAE has a high volume if trade with Iran, and wants to keep it that way.
Israeli establishment a mere 25 miles across the straits from Iran is asking for trouble. Any act of violence against Embassy would be declared Iranian attack.
I am sure UAE is aware of the provocative nature of this move. Thus, it had to be the work of heavy duty arm twisting.
Bianca, What & Who…is your take on the “Unfortunate Accident” that… devIstated Beirut…????? & how does it fit into this “Normalizaton of Ties” scenario.. I am always anxious to hear your always astute analysis.. Thank You in advance!
About the “accident”. There have been too many unfortunate accidents lately. Unlike in the case of sabotaged tankers, and Saudi bombed out refinery — which were blamed on Iran —but did not convince the Gulf — the tactics have changed.
First in Iran — now mind you not all transformer blow ups or wooden boats on fire were acts of sabotage but some were — and now in shaky Lebanon to target Hezbollah.
The long standing issue of cargo of an impounded ship — has not been a secret. Bureaucracy has been mulling it over. So, finding out about the stash of dangerous chemicals was not hard. Much harder job was determining how to destabilize it to explode.
And as of now — the top candidate is the storage of some fireworks nearby. The theory goes — some welding nearby ignited fireworks, which then a minute later ignited the fertilizer.
The key to investigation is the stash of fireworks — or whatever it was. Who owned the storage, who rented it, when was the cargo placed there, what was it, anybody verified the cargo, etc. i have a feeling they will check all other nearby storage records and owners for recent activity. I am more inclined to think sabotage. This is a new tactics that seems to work — it unnerved people in Iran.
This explosion is now viewed by the Administration as an actual beginning of full blown political attack on Lebanon.
Last year sanctions on banks for dealing with Hezbollah started the financial meltdown. Once Hariri was finally removed — it transpired that huge sums of money went missing, adding to the crisis. With the lame duck government — and multiple crises on their hands, it will.be very hard for Lebanon to mount a serious investigation. Trump is now pushing for frontal attacks on anyone he wants to taint with Hezbollah association. . Such as President’s son-in-law as being “Christian cover” for Hezbollah.
Here are some vectors to consider. Hezbollah represents one third of Lebanon – Shia population. The poorest segment. Before 2006 Israeli invasion, Christian population- another third, was closer to Sunnis in politics and wealth. Hezbollah won public opinion sympathy after successfully repelling Israel’s land invasion in 2006.
Second public sentiment change after Christian population of Syria was decimated if living outside of government controlled areas. The atrocities committed were hushed up in the West – even though gruesome videos exist. Such information would make Americans realize that Assad was all that stood between Christians and their torture and deaths. And it was young Shia from Syria and volunteers from Lebanon that formed militia units for their defense. It did not escape Lebanese citizens the fact that the heads of all three — Sunni. Christian and Shia — stood by Assad all this time. And it did not go unnoticed that Sunni were victims mostly of Sunni Islamic militants — those supported by US and Saudi Arabia.
This war and their own experience with Israel has made Lebanon of today.
But I expect strong bullying — as if one can by magic get rid of one third of Lebanese population. The pressures are on — and will see what will happen. Literally anything can happen.
The only advantage today is better understanding among political elite — better than before 2006 or Syrian conflict.
But the issue is — who will hurt the most financially if US targets their wealth. Those would call for “regime change” meaning total surrender to US demands and yet unknown Israeli demands.
As for UAE — the set up is obvious. Any harm to Israel’s interests in UAE, Iran will pay. US and Israel will be in military alliance. US is beefing up Israeli anti-missile defense. Last time it was alliance over Suez that cost UK what was left of its imperial presence.
But UAE is linked to fraying relationship with Saudi Arabia and the never ending Yemen saga. A saga evolving fast and furious due to monarch’s health — and equally unnerving from US point of view the potential transition in Kuwait. UAE is the weakest link and it sits on Straits of Hormuz.
The problem is — Iran will not remain undefended should any serious war effort ensue. . Neither Russia nor China will allow US getting close to Caspian sea.
Oh yeah, and thanks for your take on the mess. My take is more rooted in my familiarity with some infamous fertilizer bomb attacks. There is little techonological help from experts in explosives, IEDs or chemists in approaching this blast, putsch or what ever it was that happened. Right after the gargantuan blast, we were TOLD that 27 metric tons of Amonium Nitrate (AN) exploded that had been seized & stored for years in bags in a warehouse at the port. My first question was, what type and size of bags. This is because AN all by itself burns and does not explode if ignighted. And to cause a powerful explosion, moreover it requires fuel to consume, probably around 15 to 25 percent. In gunpowder the oxidizer is potassium nitrate which is 75%, with15% charcoal & 10% sulphur as fuel. At the beginning of the tale we were fed, AN exploded and there was no mention of any other ingredients or the critical role of the mix
I remember reading that the chemical is stable and not easily ignited. Your information throws new light, i heard Russian rescue teams are on the ground. Looks like they may be searching for other things as well.
Former foreign minister of Lebanon was the first one to point finger at Israel. It will not be an easy investigation under circumstances.
Thanks again Bianca. I am no expert on chemical reactions, but an observer of the overall picture. And the Beirut blast just doesn’t quite add up. It was quite a bit stronger, than that amount of AN even under ideal conditions would usually produce. The mushroom cloud is not typical of fertilizer bombs. But I suspect getting a few good samples of the dirt in the crater from a few different places would decide the issue. I cannot believe there would not be unexplained isotopes if the site is sampled before some of the short lived isotopes half life out, if indeed the blast was nuclear. Anyway I’m happy anytime I bring anything useful to your ubiquitous attention. Hopefully some one or organization will examine this dreadful blast and share their findindings. Have you seen the VT stuff?
The “dome” of the explosion was quite interesting.
The Russians are doing critical forensics.
Soon after the tale was out. People like me and others started asking…”Where”s the Beef?” In this case the fuel. Soon after we heard that the AN was sent “pre-mixed” but that doesn’t ring true for these reasons. First, It would be extremely more dangerouIs to transport mixed, than unmixed. And Second, the deisel would/could migrate to the bottom of the bags, And third it could evaporate away in the intense heat.
Beyond these considerations there is also, the fact that letting it sit so long would, for reasons mentioned produce a semi-dud weak blast. Not the intense blast that has many observers believing it was a nuclear blast like the new generation of “Politically Correct” nuclear devices that the U.S congress has appropriated a TRILLION DOLLARS to construct to “Modernize” the U.S. nuclear arsenal. What do you think Bianca?
What “intense heat?” It’s unusual for the temperature in Beirut to hit 90 degrees fahrenheit.
Under the roof of unairconditioned roof East Mediterranean. Probably poorly ventelated for not weeks or months but years & years..
In other words, not much of an environment for evaporation of diesel.
Abstract: The evaporation of diesel oil, 90# gasoline and aromatic mixture on free surface of petri dishes were carried out at the ambient temperature of 20 . The results showed that there were different evaporation behaviors for different oil products. Diesel oil evaporates in a power manner, where the loss of mass is approximately power with time, and has the fit equation of y = 0.0062 t 0.7612 . While 90# gasoline evaporates in a logarithmic with time and with the fit equation of y = 15.803 In (t) -20.884. The aromatic mixture evaporates as linear with time and with fit equation of y = 0.0321 t + 3.6739. The evaporation of diesel oil leads to the changes of diesel physical properties, it lead the increase of the viscosity and the decrease of API gravity (American Petroleum Institute gravity). And there is positive relativity between viscosity of residual diesel oil and the loss percent of diesel oil during evaporation process. During the diesel oil evaporation, the compositions of those less than 15 carbon atoms has affected, mainly those less than 13 carbon atoms compositions
Or a rocket…………….
The ghouls have come out to play. The West Bank thing is smoke for an official tag-team between Wahhabism and Zionism. This Ain’t about peace. It’s about killing Shiites.
They have been a tag team for a while. A union made in h*ll. they operate in the same fashion.
From BBC concerning the Khashoggi murder for hire: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45812399
This will cost American tax payers $Billions just like Egypt Peace Accord. Stop payments and the Accord ends.
Peace breaks out between two ME countries,
bloggers at ANTIwar, meltdown?
Meanwhile in 1939…Peace comes to Europe with the Nazi/Soviet pact….stokr joins the parade.
In 1938, Hitler is Man of the Year (Time).
The more relevant examples are Egypt,
then Jordan and now the UAE.
No war from the first two,
but Davy knows (wants) this to fail.
Relevant in that all three get lots of American tax dollars to play nice. Like the Saudis.
If you are ANTI-war, that should not be a problem.
Both Egypt and Jordan are being weened
down re US aid.
See here:
https://explorer.usaid.gov/cd/JOR?fiscal_year=2020&measure=Obligations
Your link isn’t working so I can’t comment on that. But I am anti war and any military aid to any country is a problem. But there is also this:
https://news.antiwar.com/2020/08/14/experts-expect-us-arms-sales-to-uae-to-soar-after-israel-deal/
this memorializes what has been known for decades, yet UAE continues to support the Syrian govt w millions of USD annually
It is all about IRAN, very obvious (look at the map).
It also legitimizes Israel arms sales to UAE (big business for Israel).
And it is giving Trump a boost before the election (although Israel and the UAE were never been enemies, on the other hand, they are business partners, so “peace” agreement is almost meaningless).
But it is another nail in the “peace process” coffin (if the word “peace” still makes any sense).
Everybody is happy, except the Palestinians.
Shah of iran was very happy too untill….
At 9:02 a.m. local time on April 19, 1995, a Ryder rental truck, containing approximately 7,000 pounds (3175 kg) of ammonium nitrate fertilizer, nitromethane, and diesel fuel was detonated in front of the building, destroying a third of it and causing severe damage to several other buildings located nearby. As a result, 168 people were killed, including 19 children, and over 800 others were injured.[7] It remains the deadliest domestic terrorist attack, with the most property damage, on American soil.The first reports by major media: “the Arabs did it!”.
UAE officials think annexation is off the table and Bibi says it’s only temporary. Sounds like a deal that was intended to last until November 3rd.
The deal being announced in Washington tells us all we need to know.
“The devil is in the details.” How much do we really get to know about this “historic” agreement? How much is the U.S. shelling out to get this agreement made before the election?