A Saudi-brokered ceasefire between the Saudi-backed government in Yemen and the Southern Transitional Council (STC) has not lasted long, and after tensions on the island of Socotra, fighting erupted in Abyan Province.
Fighting has raged over 24 hours in Abyan Province, with at least 54 fighters killed. Both sides are blaming the other for starting the fighting and “violating” the truce. Monitors are still heading into Abyan, but it’s not clear there is a ceasefire left to monitor.
A coastal province, Abyan has often been contested by the STC, and the same territory was under dispute during the Arab Spring, when Islamist groups tied to al-Qaeda seized several towns in the area, including the provincial capital of Zinjibar.
The STC intends to declare South Yemen an autonomous republic at the end of the Yemen War, while the Hadi government insists that they will keep Yemen united. The Saudis had aimed at power-sharing talks, but the Hadi regime has rejected giving power to the unelected STC as unfair.
Of course Hadi wasn’t really elected either.
What a comedy. Hadi, the man whose name was the only one on the list, presided over a transition period in Sana’a — and had his term lapse, unable/unwilling to fulfill his assumed role.
Then he sought Saudi protection to defend “unified” Yemen that nobody wanted except US. But UAE — read US — imposed its power over Southern secessionists, and Saudis holding the bag of “unified Yemen” for US, ended up with nothing. The “something” Saudis want is influence over a territory that has territorial/EEZ waters along Bab Al-Mandeb Straits.
Saudis from the beginning wanted control of the north, as the border Saudis drew long time ago included part of Yemen, and thar area has oil. But getting North has proven difficult — the geography makes it near impossible, thus reliance on bombing and sea blockade.
Now, Saudis are clinging on the shreds of chance that by terrorizing North — eventually un order for a settlement to take place — Saudis will demand concessions from the South — read, UAE, US — to guarantee freedom of shipping through its Territorial/EZZ waters.
For Saudis this is not a theoretical issue — Saudis (and supporters, Sudan, Egypt) have to insure nobody can unilaterally block passage to/from Red Sea and Indian Ocean.