The Egyptian government has been one of the most vocal backers of Gen. Khalifa Hafter’s self-proclaimed Libyan National Army for years, seeing them as ideologically close to another would-be junta. They’ve pushed international measures supportive of Hafter, and recently suggested a ceasefire, and the immediate pullout of “foreign mercenaries.” This was rejected almost uniformly.
Now, at least 18 US-made tanks and Egyptian attack helicopters have crossed the border, entering Libya to try to back the LNA from further defeats.
But as Egypt invades, the Government of National Accord (GNA) has its own plan to try to negotiate an end to the fighting, rushing to capture the coastal city of Sirte, and intending to push for peace talks with the LNA immediately after they do so.
The GNA fears Russia, another backer of the LNA, wants bases in Sirte. Russia was the lone backer of Cairo’s ceasefire, which meant to stop the fighting before the GNA could reach Sirte.
Very naive. Ideological sympathies? We do not like Egypt as it is getting out of US orbit, and into Russian-Chinese orbit. Here us where naive stumble. This is not Egypt vs Turkey, or LNA vs GNA. It is all against US and European claims fir having CENTRAL role in settling Libyan crisis.
From the beginning — US imposed in Tripoli a formula for UN recognized government, expecting Hafter to fold. The old general was told to negotiate — end story. This is where Russian-Egyptian plan came in. Hafter took Benghazi and South, and came to Tripoli gates.
What happened next? Trump declared his new found admiration for discarded general, and was ditching Tripoli under the bus.
Pressure on Heftar rose — including subtle threats to his family living in US. To alleviate pressure on Heftar here comes another Russian ally — Turkey, to step in on behalf completely discarded Tripoli. Now, Tripoli has initiative — Heftar is LOSING. Now, US pressure in Heftar is waning— but Tripoli is NOT going to hear stories from any western country. They have Turkey in their corner. To alleviate pressure on Hefter —Egypt will move into his territory.
Thus — a peace is being readied. Tripoli officials came to Ankara and Russia last week.
As some form of peace plan is in the making -/ it will now be up to EU or US to show some initiative — whatever it may be. Egypt has solved its problem — no more islamist gangs in its borders after Hefter pacified Benghazi. Turkey solved its problem — UN recognized government in Tripoli signed maritime deal with Turkey in EEZ over Mediterranean ridge. Basically prevented Israeli plan for gas pipeline to Greece bypassing Turkey. Now Turkey is drilling in East Med — not just Israel. And Turkey has gas pipeline infrastructure already in place to carry it to Europe.
We shall now watch — let us see which of the sides, Turkey or Egypt — give over their control to US? The country can remain split — and south Fezan can go with either. Then it will inly be necessary to solve oil revenue — and establish a workable peaceful solution.
Time to watch US move.
US has no real chance of getting into this game even if it wants now . Russia is in danger of extending its reach when it cant solve Syrian situation . Egypt is trying to be ally of UAE and Russia while making sure that UN recognized gov doesn’t become entry point for Turkey suppled MB . Another upheaval in Egypt can happen once USA signals unhappiness to it or the money form Saudi or UAE fail to arrive. The future for Turkey and Qatar and LNA look much brighter compared to Egypt and UAE . Egypt also might simply fold .
This will force Saudi and UAE to support Russia in Syria .
… Turkey vs. Egypt in a proxy war…
Haftar is backed by Russia as well as Egypt. Russia appears to have tried to claim a piece of Libyan partition, Cyrenaica, and expand it a bit, perhaps even deny partition.
Sirte appears to be a key future Tripolitanian city close to the proposed border of Cyrenaica.
The fight seems more to encourage Turkey and Russia to commit more resources into a Libyan quagmire than anything else.
If they both want a united Syria, who controls Russia’s former ally is the only point of contention.
Well, the intrigues of Libya are way beyond my Ken these days. Why the first black president would bloody his own hands and make such a gargantuan mess of it is beyond my humble abilities. Where did Lybia”s gold go? Where is Saif al Islam, And is any player or group (Wagner??)^ capable of putting Humpty Dunky back together again, and for whom. I love Bianca”s seemingly endless knowledge on this stuff, but I’m not so sure even she can fathom the evil what lurks in the minds of central banks and corporate boards.
The Libyan conflict was to protect the French CFA Franc from Gadaffi’s planned Gold Dinar.
The Gold Dinar was part of Gadaffi’s plan to unite Africa against EU resource exploitation.
The CFA Franc underwrites the Euro as it did the French Franc.