The invasion of northeastern Syria has greatly strained US ties with Turkey, but Vice President Fuat Oktay says he sees an “opportunity” for Turkey to revive ties, especially economically, because of growing US-China tensions.
Oktay saw the growing divide with China as a good chance for Turkey, whose own manufacturing industry was relatively unharmed by the coronavirus, to start competing on some more economic ties with the United States. The Trump Administration’s interest in not trading too much with China might well give Turkey this opportunity.
US relations with Turkey aren’t great either, however, since Turkey attacked Kurdish SDF forces in northeastern Syria, derailing US operations in the country. Though the Trump Administration has tried to spin Syria as just being about taking oil now, there is still a lot of annoyance about what happened with the Syrian Kurds.
Backing the US over China is an easy decision for Turkey, much more so than some of Turkey’s other policies. This could indeed be an opportunity for Turkey.
Cannot be that US is going to fall for this one? Nobody has profited more from Chinese and Russian connections than Turkey. Turkey is a growing regional power with a growing clout precisely because of Turkey’s commitment to Eurasian blueprint for the restoration of stability in the Greater ME region. This means partnership with Iran, restoring stability to Syria by fighting ISIS, coopting local militants, putting end to US ambitions for Kurdish secessionism, coordinating with Russia on restoring most of former SDF controlled area under Syrian control, establishing permanent border patrols with Russia, comprehensive approach to Idlib with Russia’s collaboration. Military base in Iraq to counter US sponsored PKK infiltration of Iraq’s Kurdistan, military base in Qatar, another Russia-Turkey plan for ending Libyan crisis by having influence over both sides of the conflict, issues of refugees — and many other “disagreements” with US and EU. And about China. It will take a lengthy article to cover Turkey’s economic links to China. In the middle of Corona virus emergency, new contract were signed between the two on infrastructure. Turkey is a key node in Belt and Road plans, a key node in energy distribution plans.
The VP is implementing the creed of Shanghai Cooperation Organization — friendly commerce with everyone, but not at your partners’ expense. And Turkey will be open to any mutually beneficial business — without any intention to conspire with US to harm its partners.
As US is trying to repatriate production — it is not likely that any business would be conducted with Turkey or anybody else — unless a geopolitical angle is present.
Turkey that is sitting on prime geopolitical territory knows it well.
People say what we want to hear, to make us believe that the ties with others are weak. This strategic ambivalence has become a standard play across the globe. To prevent alarming the hegemonic power.