While the situation in Syria’s Idlib province has been relatively calm since Russia and Turkey brokered a ceasefire, the Turkish Army is making moves that suggest they are expecting another new round of fighting against the Syrian government.
Turkey has reportedly deployed US-made MIM-23 HAWK missiles into Idlib. Turkey had been seeking US anti-aircraft missiles like these to protect themselves from any airstrikes that came amid fighting.
On top of that, Turkey is also said to have set up another observation post for the army in al-Kfayr, along the M4 highway that is so vital, and whose control had been the subject of previous fighting. Such observation posts often host Turkish and rebel forces, and spark fighting with the Syrian military.
The M4 highway connects Damascus and Aleppo, and the Syrian military recently claimed it from the al-Qaeda forces. Turkey tried to take it back, and the ceasefire left the highway open, with joint Russia-Turkey patrols. The ceasefire is near ideal for Syria, but Turkey seems to be expecting its collapse.
“The ceasefire is near ideal for Syria, but Turkey seems to be expecting its collapse.”
Turkey wants specific things in Syria. Does this deal provide them?
It wants the Kurds cut off from the Kurdish regions inside Turkey.
It wants the flow of refugees toward Turkey to stop.
It wants some place in Syria to which the refugees now in Turkey can be sent.
The deal might or might not provide for these things now. It could, or it could be undermined.
However, what Russia wants is quite different. What Assad wants is quite different. What Iran wants is quite different. None of those things are opposite of what Turkey wants, and none require canceling what Turkey wants. Therefore, a longer lasting deal can be done, whether it now has been or not.
We need to be kept informed of progress toward the goals of each separate player, not just that brief cease fires come and go.
Of course, what the US and Israel want ARE the opposite of what each of the others want. Therefore, peace is fleeting. The insurgency comes from them. It is because of them that it keeps coming.
Fully agree with you. Their needs and expectations are compatible and existential. Now that HTS aligned militants attacked Turkish convoy, the game is on. While Damascus wants to be uber accommodating to Kurdish population — is taking no crap from YPG or their American version SDF. Turkey and Russia patrol border since Trump removed troops. You do not hear their names mentioned much — except in some neocon fantasy expecting maintaining Kurds in the news.
In Idlib, polar opposite. It is Damascus that wants them crushed, while Turkey wants no refugees. The process was picture perfect coordination. Syria knocks them out of Aleppo-Damascus highway, sending message — status quo is over. Then Turkey comes in oozing all sympathy towards militants, while sealing borders. So now, HRS and its Western backers cannot scream of the “hundreds of thousands refugees in the move”, as that was a lie just to get Russian-Syrian offensives to stop. And once they took M5 highway, major project was done. Now Turkey needs to peel off militants from HTS — and their funding arm, White Helmets. West is still trying to portray all of them to be loyal to HTS — not trusting Turkey after cutting deal with Russia.
But this is propaganda — groups now know that Turkey is here to stay in the long run, and will patrol M4 highway, Aleppo-Tartus. Militants are pushed away from viable parts of Idlib, and cannot go of offensive. What HTS and its dwindling loyalists are doing is trying to sabotage patrols, planting IEDs along the way, damaging highway. Two Turkish soldiers were injured.
Slowly, either Turkey and US/UK would cut a deal on pulling HTS leadership and Helmets out —leaving rank and file to go under Turkish control.
Political settlement will be closer at hand. With less pomp then UN sponsored Geneva, but more productive Astana style.
Truth is, without Turkey’s participation with boots on the ground Syrian Army would not have bern able to take Kurdish areas nor Idlib militant. Kurds were supported by US —while HTS by US and UK. One redolved, one to go. Russia had to stay above the fray — help Assad is essential, but also able to talk to Kurds and collaborate with Turkey.
Iran just has one key requirement, which coincides with Turkey and Syria — prevent any permanent foreign sponsored entity controlling Turkey, Syria, Iraq borders. To eventually insure infrastructure and commerce flow freely from Central Asia to Middle East and Europe. And no militant formations under foreign funding and command.
With Iraqi, Syrian and Iranian foreign sponsored Kurdish militancy under control — Turkey can come to terms with Kurds in Turkey.
“Their needs and expectations are compatible and existential.”
With each other, but not at all with the US/Israel. That is where this breaks down, not least in the coverage we get of developments.
The US funnels money and weapons to jihadis, and even attacks if they are in too much trouble, and so the war goes on. Turkey/Syria/Russia/Iran would make short work of this if the US and Israel were cut out.
Amerika and Turkey belong together. In hell. With their backs broken.
Then they couldn’t feel that full body fire and brimstone experience.
I thought M5 connected Aleppo and Damascus
and M4 Aleppo to coast. The first one is solidly open, the second one is patrolled. Without control of M4 Idlib is a backwater.
Keep up with developments. Turkey has now only SOME Idlib militants under its control. Do not confuse it with situation OUTSIDE Idlib.
What is happening is as follows. Turkey has not yet peeled off many militant groups from West supported HTS. HRS supported militants’ salaries are from HTS — read US and UK taxpayers. White Helmets are there to funnel the money.
The reason large militant groups like it this way as HTS pays commanders, gives them UN food to distribute. Turkey on the other hand requires no group loyalties, moves them under their commanders and requires uniform. This means that only groups that are scared of bigger ones accepted Turkey protection.
Now groups under HTS are provoking Turkey by damaging highway and obstructing patrols. Turkish soldiers were injured. Turkey will eventually retaliate — and take on HTS. But not yet. HTS is equipped with all sorts of firepower. Getting stuff from US is perfect, not from bad Russia. It will be used against whoever attacks them.
The militants that HTS controls want ironclad guarantees from Turkey that they will get power at the peace table. Turkey does not want groups to have power, only population to get protection and civilian government after war.
But HTS that is West knows that time is on Russia’s and Turkey’s side. They will patrol, along with militants under THEIR control. HTS does not want stalemate — it will look powerless and lose militants.
So watch carefully who is being attacked and by whom. The patrols have now put all of artillery out of reach of M5, which is reopened and airport is reopened. M4 is HTS last stand. Turkey had talks with puppets — UK and France on Idlib, but I see no change.
Thus. if HTS cannot attack Syrian army, Syria will not touch them. HTS controlled militants will be sacrificed to attack patrols, and Turkey will hit the idiots hard. Convincing the rank and file to cross over to Turkey.
The games are still going on — West willing to stretch this one, but time not in their favor. This is the game of attrition.
Refugees cannot be exploited by HTS as before, as Turkish army has blocked the region.
The Turks can’t be expecting a serious confrontation with an American AD system.