With talk of a declaration of war on coronavirus, and the administration openly referring to the virus as “the enemy,” it was only a matter of time before they would try to bring to bear one of their favorite, but least successful tools in recent conflict, mass surveillance in the United States.
The government is already courting Google, Facebook and other companies, hoping to get the anonymized location data from them as part of a growing effort to track Americans’ movement. This could be expanded into using phones to track people.
Looking at where this might go, Israel serves as an early example. Israel was quick to use phones to track the public, and who was close to people with the virus. Already, they have rounded up several hundred people, based purely on this data, and moved them to isolation as potential cases.
As with terror surveillance, companies are quickly coming forward with new products to sell the government. One company, Athena Security, is pushing an “artificially intelligent thermal camera” that can be used to detect people with fevers.
This is something that the government can use in crowded areas, and also a product for private companies that have heavy foot traffic and want to make sure that no one has a suspicious fever. Ominously, however, the company is presenting this as “threat detection.”
In moving to a military mentality, the reality of a virus outbreak becomes muddled, as infected people are not generally speaking “the enemy,” nor generally trying to keep their illness a secret.
https://patents.google.com/patent/US10130701B2/en
Google Event 201
Google Pirbright Institute
Now Billy Boy has resigned from not only MS, but also Berkshire…
Somethin’ ain’t right here, folks.
Lots of things ain’t right.
Not sure why you find it ominous that organizations concerned with epidemics existed and held events before this one, or that people would try to patent treatments for one of the most common infections, though.
I’ll grant you one coincidence. This many? You’d have to expect me to be a helmet wearing window licker to believe that.
I’m don’t need you to grant me permission to notice reality, any more than you need me to grant you permission to believe bullshit without any plausible basis in reality.
So you think it’s bullshit that the very thing that’s happening now was gamed out by the elites one month before it began? Pepe has a pretty good writeup, you should educate yourself instead of snarling at me..
I’m not snarling at you. I’m welcoming you to believe any nonsense you want to believe.
No, I don’t think it’s bullshit that the very thing that’s (not really, supposedly) happening now was gamed out by the elites one month before it began.
And I might read something into that if it hadn’t also been gamed out 7 months before it began, 13 months before it began, 19 months before it began, 25 months before it began, etc., at a very conservative estimate, for decades.
Gaming of global pandemics happens all the time. Every global pandemic that ever happens will happen shortly after a global pandemic has been gamed.
This seems like an effective method to limit the spread of the virus.
Like every other “war” this war on the corona virus will increase the power of the Federal Government. A lot.
And after the crisis is perceived as over, they will relinquish a fraction of the power they have grabbed.
Aren’t we barking up the wrong tree?
Has CDC changed CRITERIA that applies for testing? Last I heard it is limited to travelers returning from epidemic stricken countries (list is expanding, but not enough), OR a person was in a direct contact with a proven coronavirus case.
A doctor must recommend test, but it WILL not be honored unless the criteria is met. There are now drive-throughs! But wait, you must have an appointment! Go back to step one. Your doctor must recommend testing, make appointment, and you still may not be tested if criteria not met. Many people do not have a doctor. No problem, call your local health department and they will talk to you. Mostly on answering machine, but if you get someone to call you — there are questions about your travel and contact with a confirmed case. Back to step one. What about Urgent Care places, can they request a test? No, they are not your doctor.
Just in my small corner of the world, multiple coronavirus cases have shown up AFTER a number of refusals to be tested for people that came back from tour of the Nile in Egypt. Then there is a person in his forties, who was told he had a flu and sent home. No travel history. After he developed severe breathing problems ended up in hospital. Wife had to battle officials to test him, hospital refused. Wife contacted Virginia governor, and test was taken. But request not honored for not meeting criteria. Wife not told that, waited three days for test results. After another chase, test finally conducted and patient has coronavirus. He exposed his wife, three daughters, their schools, neighborhoods, urgent care he visited, on and on.
In fact, frustrated relatives paid for post-mortem testing just to find coronavirus.
What is happening people are dying from “flu” — pneumonia, aggravated asthma, emphysema, heart failure, or anything else that such intense respiratory distress can cause.
Trump is OBSESSED with numbers. No coronavirus testing unless absolute link with travel/exposure is established. Less testing — less coronavirus cases. Unless this changes, and EVERY PERSON with flu symptoms (high fever, cough) is tested we will have a large number of sick people, call it whatever you want — disease will spread. In Italy they use army trucks to haul dead away from hospitals as normal funeral services refuse the risk.
I am wondering how can CDC live with themselves. Or media that (like NBC) justifies lower testing because if you test more “by default, you will have more positive cases”. By default?
For these boneheaded people earth is flat, and no matter how “woke” they are, they just do not believe in science. They want to shape reality. Reality does not exist unless they say so.
I would worry more immediately about the state of public health then martial law. Because if we do not start tossing into their face the testing debacle — we will get under martial law sooner rather then later. Virginia Governor was asked how many test kits Virginia has. The answer 300. At an absolute minimum they should test everyone hospitalized due to flue, pneumonia or any other respiratory distress. And all people who walk into Urgent Case with fever, with or without cough.
We can call illness whatever we want — but there will be fewer people producing, supplying and servicing. And fewer medical personnel. The earth is not flat.
“Has CDC changed CRITERIA that applies for testing? Last I heard it is limited to travelers returning from epidemic stricken countries”
Not sure exactly what you mean here. The CDC’s authority to apply CRITERIA exists at state and national borders. They don’t get to tell e.g. my local hospital who it may or may not test.
Not true. Checked with my provider.
While it is true that at State level, there is a Health Authority, and it sets policy for local health departments. Together they are THE Health Authority. While I cannot say FOR CERTAIN that State Health Authorities implement to the letter CDC guidelines, it is then a mighty coincidence that New York Health Authority has the same criteria as Virginia. Both clearly state that your physician CAN order test because he suspects coronavirus it does not mean that the request for services would be honored. Literally. wording.
Now cases of hospitals. Why is it that they may order a test but the case does not meet criteria set by “health authorities”, and will not be conducted?
And the criteria as far as I know is still the same: each case is evaluated on the basis of travel history AND/OR direct contact with a confirmed coronavirus patient.
Many cases — one in NY I know about directly as it is a relation. Without a doctor, called the number of local health authority. Over the phone (after two days waiting for callback). asked questions on travel history, and exposure to a coronavirus patient. Both answers being negative, recommended staying at home, and call back if situation gets worse. Recommended NOT to go to Emergency Room. Luckily after two days of fever and few mire days of coughing — he is better. He lives and shops two blocks from Yeshiva University where confirmed case(s) occurred. Another Virginia case is a Prince William County man whose whose wife has to plough through the red tape, and even when hospitalized was not tested for few days, as “health authorities” at first said did not meet criteria, but then changed their mind as he did travel to New York. Before that, he was told he had flu, visited Urgent Care when temperature hit 103, and stayed home until breathing became difficult. Not good prognosis.
I was shocked about the hoopla about drive through, which sounds like anybody can go who has flu like symptoms. Nope. Same old. Doctor recommended, make appointment, may not be honored if not meeting criteria.
Do you know of anyone who was concerned about symptoms and asked his/her doctor to be tested? Or who does not have a doctor?
Does your health care provider have different guideline? Because mine still says that my doctor may order the test but that it may not be honored if “ health authorities” decide I do not meet criteria.
State of Virginia still has at this time of year at least two-three thousand flu cases. Those cases even when hospitalized do not automatically get tested.
I would like to know if anyone has more information — and if everyone’s health care provider has the disclaimer that health authorities may not honor physician’s recommendation.
Confirmatory testing at the CDC was no long required – as of March 14, according to the CDC.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/testing-in-us.html
Meanwhile, South Korea is testing 20,000 people a day.
Also meanwhile, according to this report: https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/03/19/we-cannot-test-we-cannot-test-coronavirus-cases-us-spike-40-one-day-medical-workers – UCSF Health here in San Francisco is going to run out of swabs in five days. Their swabs come from a company – in Italy, the second most hard hit country in the world.
At least Trump signed a bill to provide free testing for all Americans – assuming you can find someone who can test you because they still have the supplies.
Right on. The US government is two months behind the 8-ball on testing. South Korea tests 20,000 people a day. The US has barely reached 30-40,000 in two months.
I’m following the Johns Hopkins tracker. The US “confirmed” cases is doubling almost daily or every two days. And that’s not the “true” cases – which are at least ten times higher. Today the confirmed cases are 13,159 – it was 6,000+ yesterday. The virus is in 160 countries now, with over 242,000 confirmed cases worldwide and almost ten thousand deaths.
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html?fbclid=IwAR2ma-6Gx27jZ-lu4boUPo8gLx5GcJ6RnTk8M3r8bDQM5ON5nBbHQZqH6js#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
It’s too late now, according to a report I read, for the US. It will have to go through the whole Hubei experience and the CDC worst-case scenario. Meaning 100-200 million cases and between 200,000 and one million dead…
Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
The number of dead will be closer to 200 than to 200,000.
I think for that type of statistic, we should use a geometric mean. That is, if less than roughly 6,325 die, you are correct, if greater, you are in error. I am inclined to believe you could possibly be correct.
I’m correct if fewer than 100,100 die.
So far, the only bet I’ve placed is the “under” on an over/under of 10,000.
Oh, please. The point of your comment was to downgrade the possibility of a serious pandemic. Don’t pretend otherwise by hiding behind “math”. It just makes you look even more pathetic.
You simply don’t have the balls, like many who are downplaying the possible deaths, to admit that you don’t care who dies, whether the elderly or children with respiratory problems. Fine, if that’s what you believe, but do have the courage to state it outright.
“You simply don’t have the balls, like many who are downplaying the possible deaths, to admit that you don’t care who dies, whether the elderly or children with respiratory problems.”
I think you are way off base. I have been reading Thomas’ comments for several years now, and while sometimes he can be a bit over the top, I have never seen him say anything that would indicate the type of callousness you ascribe to him. The only times I have seen him display any kind of insensitivity period, is perhaps to politicians, and, in most or all cases, it is my opinion that it was warranted.
Just because he disagrees with you on how many American deaths there will be from the disease, what makes you think it has anything to do with “downplaying” the threat? It seems to me that people can honestly have different estimates as to the number. The truth is, none of us really know where the final figure will be.
One thing Thomas has definitely emphasized as a very large number, is the number of deaths that could result from the political fallout of this epidemic, such as martial law and a total disruption of our economy. That number would likely dwarf the number of people who die directly from the illness, not to mention that such actions by the state could lock into place a despotism that would not end in our lifetimes.
As the article I cite elsewhere specifies, the real “collateral damage” will be from people who can’t get treatment for other serious medical conditions because of inactivity in clamping down on this virus as a result of a cavalier attitude as to the number of possible deaths.
And as I said, it is cavalier to brush off the possibility of 200,000, let alone a million deaths, with the off-hand reference to “closer to 200” – especially when that statement is based on absolutely nothing, let alone epidemiological models, however inaccurate they may be in this particular case.
As for economic dislocation, as the article I cited also points out, it is better to take a “hammer” approach early on, when the economic dislocation can be reduced to a matter of weeks, than rely on half-hearted measures which will result in greater economic dislocation as a result of a greater number of deaths resulting not just from the victims of the virus, but from the collapse of the health system over a greater period of time and the resulting economic dislocation.
In other words, bite the bullet or the bullet will bite you.
I dismiss the likelihood that martial law is likely to be imposed, at least in the US, over this virus unless things get ridiculously out of hand. And that latter event is much more probable if one takes half-hearted measures to deal with the threat early on. As the article I cite points out, we’re talking a matter of days or at most a couple weeks rather than months as the determining factor of how bad things could get – if the appropriate measures are taken or not.
While none of us can know what the final figure will be – probably not for a couple of years if this thing comes in waves or the virus mutates (as it already has into two separate strains) – we can know that the longer we wait to debate those totals, those totals will be higher.
Speaking of totals, US cases as of 12:30 AM Saturday morning are almost 20,000 (assume ten times that number of “true” cases.) Washington state death total is now 83, up from 74 yesterday.
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And as I said, it is cavalier to brush off the possibility of 200,000, let alone a million deaths, with the off-hand reference to “closer to 200” – especially when that statement is based on absolutely nothing, let alone epidemiological models, however inaccurate they may be in this particular case.
—–
I didn’t “brush off” anything. I looked at the actual epidemiological models and the actual reports, not just the fevered blog entries of people screeching “I know the word EXPONENTIAL! I know how to draw a hockey stick on a graph! COVID-19 is under your bed! It’s coming to GET YEWWWWWWW!”
If infectious disease experts are correct (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/infectious-disease-experts-dont-know-how-bad-the-coronavirus-is-going-to-get-either/), there are more than 125k cases in the US at the moment. Which makes the death rate about 1/6th that of the average seasonal flu.
We don’t know the death rate in the US yet, because the deaths come up to three weeks after the case is diagnosed.
We do know the death rates for China and those countries hardest hit – which considerably exceed and have been clearly described as much higher than normal flu.
So you’re being dismissive again without producing any real evidence.
Which makes you wrong again.
People are already not getting treatment. Not because of the COVID-19 virus, but because of the COVID-19 panic. Many, if not most, of the states, have mandated that all “elective” procedures be postponed until the “crisis” is over.
Somewhere, a routine mammogram is being re-scheduled for a woman who will now be in a more advance stage of breast cancer when they get around to detecting it.
Not because the mammogram machine is needed for COVID-19. Not because the technician who runs the mammogram machine is needed to do something related to treating COVID-19. Not because a cancer surgeon’s skills are readily transferable to assisting with COVID-19. Because people are panicking instead of thinking shit through.
It’s not “panic” when the danger of an immediate disease that can overwhelm the hospital system takes precedence over what are described as “elective” procedures.
You are correct that if the pandemic is not handled correctly, there will be a lot of “collateral damage.” But the fact that there *is* a pandemic means there is going to have to be *some* collateral damage. As the article I cited points out, this can be handled in more than one way – but some ways result in either more deaths from the virus or more collateral damage or more economic damage (which will also produce collateral damage.)
I believe with the author of those articles that a “hammer” approach now is better than being dismissive or cavalier about the risk model.
“But the fact that there *is* a pandemic means there is going to have to be *some* collateral damage.”
And who decides who lives and who dies? Letting the state make these decisions is idiocy.
Who suggested that? The medical profession has to make those decisions – and the state needs to take their advice into account when setting policy. Which means recognizing that a “hammer” approach now will save lives now and help with the economy later.
As I said elsewhere, bite the bullet now or the bullet will bite you.
“You simply don’t have the balls, like many who are downplaying the possible deaths, to admit that you don’t care who dies, whether the elderly or children with respiratory problems.”
Yep, you got me pegged.
I don’t care if my 86-year-old mother dies in the nursing home where she lives.
I don’t care if my 67 year-old brother with COPD dies.
I don’t care if I die (I’m in at least two higher-risk categories and just recently left a third by quitting smoking; I’m also located near a university where my wife works in epidemiology with a bunch of people who frequently travel back and forth between here and Asia).
The point of my comment was to introduce some rationality into the atmosphere of headlong irrational panic with no basis in fact, fuckstick.
Good for you on the smoking thing. Hang in there, it’s worth it.
Well, I do miss it, but I expect to stick with it. Longest I’ve gone without a cigarette in 35 years or so. I’m past a month now.
I didn’t quit smoking because of the virus, btw. I had been planning to, and trying to, for some time. Tried various approaches. Chantix worked. Well, it worked partially. In addition to helping me quit smoking, the package warned that I might have vivid dreams. I was looking forward to that. Didn’t really happen.
If your point was to “introduce some rationality”, you failed miserably by cavalierly dismissing the very real danger inaction could produce, both to people at risk from the virus and people who will be at risk if the health system collapses as a result of inaction in dealing with the virus.
That’s the real point.
*My* posts are based on rationality, not panic. I’m in the 8% chance of dying demographic, and I have diabetes (although my blood sugar is so low these days, my doctor basically has decided I’m not diabetic – I still take Metformin, however, as it allegedly has other benefits.)
Fortunately, “self-isolation” and “social distancing” is something I do on a normal day, sitting at home in front of this computer for 14 hours a day. Being retired has its benefits.
it will be closer to 2 million
Washington state alone currently has 74, New York has 38, California has 18, Georgia and Louisiana 10 each, New Jersey and Florida 9 each, Texas 5, Colorado and Illinois 4 each, Connecticut, Michigan and Oregon 3 each, Indiana, Kentucky and Virginia 2 each, Kansas, Maryland, Mississippi, Missouri, Nevada, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina and South Dakota 1 each.
Do the math. That’s 203 and this thing hasn’t even started yet.
In other words, you’re an idiot.
Math is an interesting thing as applied to disease: It follows reality rather than the other way around.
And speaking of math, “closer to 200 than 200,000” means “less than 100,100.”
“this thing hasn’t even started yet.”
It started in December at the very latest. It’s 80% asymptomatic, 95% sub-clinical, and the higher death rate in Italy is accounted for by several factors:
– Italy has a higher median age than the US.
– Italy’s percentage of smokers is nearly twice that of the US.
– Italy’s air quality is worse than that of the US.
– Italy’s medical system essentially limits care to those over 80 with multiple conditions to palliative care, not treatment.
Which is why 88% of the deaths in Italy are of people over 70, and why 35% of the dead had heart disease, 35% had diabetes, and a third had high blood pressure. 0.2% of the dead in Italy were under 40.
I’m perfectly well aware when it “started”. It did not “start” in the US in December, although there may indeed have been a few cases back then.
What we are seeing now is “awareness”. But the actual “true” number of cases is undoubtedly ten times the reported cases, as the article I cited shows. BTW, today’s count of “confirmed” cases is over 17,000. It’s doubling approximately every two days.
I’m well aware of the problems Italy has. The article I cited indicates the US is likely to follow that progression regardless, due to the late start and minimal implementation of the required combined remediation of isolation, testing and tracking of the infected, which was more or less successfully applied in the Asian countries outside of China. The US has botched it completely.
Here, by the way, is the followup article to the one I cited, which the author posted yesterday.
Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
Quote:
If we do nothing: Everybody gets infected, the healthcare system gets overwhelmed, the mortality explodes, and ~10 million people die (blue bars). For the back-of-the-envelope numbers: if ~75% of Americans get infected and 4% die, that’s 10 million deaths, or around 25 times the number of US deaths in World War II.
You might wonder: “That sounds like a lot. I’ve heard much less than that!”
So what’s the catch? With all these numbers, it’s easy to get confused. But there’s only two numbers that matter: What share of people will catch the virus and fall sick, and what share of them will die. If only 25% are sick (because the others have the virus but don’t have symptoms so aren’t counted as cases), and the fatality rate is 0.6% instead of 4%, you end up with 500k deaths in the US. Still massive. But 20 times less than above.
End Quote
So stuff your “200 deaths”…or even your wishy-washy 100,000…
I’m about getting tired of this. I say business as usual and let it run its course, just like we do every year with the flu that kills thousands. Thin the herd, survival of the fittest. It sounds heartless and all that, I know, but we can’t save everyone.
“but we can’t save everyone.”
People should save everyone they can, with their own resources or those they can voluntarily obtain from others. The point is, not that the government is trying to save everyone (states have been the biggest mass murderers, not the biggest saviors), but that it is trying to rule and control everyone, and that must be opposed.
By the way, I am one of those “weaklings,” with several of the survival risk factors, whose life you have dismissed as unimportant.
If resources are to be spent, spend them on the most vulnerable. There is no reason to take down a multi-trillion dollar economy when MOST will be more than fine.
Moon of Alabama has a useful post to counter some of the nonsense people are spreading about the coronavirus.
False Claims About The Novel Coronavirus And How To Debunk Them
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/03/false-claims-about-the-novel-coronavirus-and-how-to-debunk-them.html#more
THEY are the enemy. Never lose sight of that fact.